michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 wonder if thats why the euro was so dry for us @ 12z. Do models figure in dry air- virga? The models are supposed to account for virga, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 wonder if thats why the euro was so dry for us @ 12z. Do models figure in dry air- virga? Not sure. Usually it's not a long term problem, more of a brief issue at the onset of a system. The precip echoes show no sign of backing in more from a southerly direction, just quickly scooting northeast. This is a sign that there's really not any moisture wrapping back into the cold sector. I think the virga filled deform area is all from forcing alone. The northwesterly low-level winds only add to it, with the slow advection of drier air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The models are supposed to account for virga, yes. cool, thanks. Izzi's heavy virga storm for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleet/Freezing Rain in B-Brook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Mr Izzi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 656 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 654 PM CST CLOSELY MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS EVENING FOR POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL FREEZING RAIN/SLEET EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED A STRENGTHENING 300MB JET STREAK OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH 300MB WINDS NEARLY 160KT AT MPX THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING/INTENSIFYING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER MO INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND CO-LOCATED WITH STRENGTHENING BAND OF 800-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP/SPC MESOANALYSIS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF RAP MODEL GUIDANCE CUTTING THROUGH THIS BAND SHOW VERY IMPRESSIVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITIES WITH STRONGLY NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV VALUES AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...BOTH INDICATE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY THAT COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION RATES AND POSSIBLY EVEN A COUPLE ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THIS BAND INTENSIFIES OVER THE CWA DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. P-TYPE IS EXTRAORDINARILY TRICKY...EXAMINING FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE U OF I ENSEMBLE WRF MEMBERS...MOST OF THEM SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER OVER CHICAGO DURING MOST OF THE PRECIP EVENT WITH UP TO 100MB DEEP WARM LAYER WITH MAX TEMPS OF AT LEAST 3C IN THE WARM LAYER WHICH WOULD SUGGEST COMPLETE MELTING AND MAKE FREEZING RAIN THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE MUCH LESS PRONOUNCED WITH THE WARM BULGE AND WOULD FAVOR MORE SLEET. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM ILX CERTAINLY SHOWED A DEEP WARM LAYER WITH WET BULB 0C WELL ABOVE FREEZING LENDING A BIT MORE CREDENCE TO THE HIGH-RES WRF SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE OF A FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR A DECENT SIZED CORRIDOR OF THE CWA. POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES...THOUGH THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON P-TYPE REMAINING MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN FOR A SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TIME AND NOT TRANSITIONING BACK FORTH BETWEEN SLEET. PLAN FOR NOW IS TO CONTINUE CLOSELY MONITORING OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LET WINTER WX ADVISORY RIDE...HOWEVER SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR THEN MAY NEED TO CONSIDER AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM OR ICE STORM WARNING FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR POTENTIAL MORE SIGNIFICANT ICING PROBLEMS WOULD BE FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR TOWARD PONTIAC. HAVE MASSAGED AND SENT SOME UPDATED GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND ICE ACCUM A BIT HARDER. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not sure. Usually it's not a long term problem, more of a brief issue at the onset of a system. The precip echoes show no sign of backing in more from a southerly direction, just quickly scooting northeast. This is a sign that there's really not any moisture wrapping back into the cold sector. I think the virga filled deform area is all from forcing alone. The northwesterly low-level winds only add to it, with the slow advection of drier air. Thanks much for the reply. I'm kinna too buzzed up to make any type of coherent response.. any thoughts for up this way? Good luck down there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 SE Michigan will be playing the same game tomorrow night. Interesting in the viraga vs dry forecast look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 hehehee HAVE 'MASSAGED' AND SENT SOME UPDATED GRIDS TO HIT THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL AND ICE ACCUM A BIT HARDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Freezing rain and sleet here in Elgin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Thanks much for the reply. I'm kinna too buzzed up to make any type of coherent response.. any thoughts for up this way? Good luck down there! You're a little further southeast relative to the northwest fringe compared to me from what I can tell. I think you're good for 1-2", with maybe a 3" if you guys can get lucky and get stuck under a narrow band for awhile on the northwest fringe. EDIT: Rockford reporting a mix of sleet and snow. Still nada here. Except for some vigorous virga of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Thanks much man.. Hate to ask such an IMBY question but I just had to.. My nerves are shot between the game and forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleet has started here. 31.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Rain has begun here. A bit earlier than I anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The Aviation Team is going to launch a balloon around 8 pm local time. I'm not on the team, sadly, but I'm still going to head over because I'm pretty curious to see what what kind of profile we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleeting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Nice banding on LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I would say it's sleeting moderately outside right now. Got a nice coating on my car! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Stuck in the dry slot right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleet coming down once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Two reports of snow/sleet mix from NE DeKalb Co. and one at Kenosha. On the PING map. So the warm layer is quite shallow along that line at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sleet. 30 degrees. Driveway frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 No precip here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Virga city here. Not a flake. Hard to believe it was in the 50s all last night and early this morning. Feels so cold out there at 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 sleet has stopped...just freezing rain now... ice on the grill....nothing on the pavement yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Snow. 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Virga city here. Not a flake. Hard to believe it was in the 50s all last night and early this morning. Feels so cold out there at 26. Yeah, and it may just be me, but it appears that the NW side is not as robust as some of the models were depicting. Chicago looks like a bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Precip started as and continues to be -FZRAPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Snow. 30. Nothing here right now. Driveway is crunchy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 First flakes finally reaching the surface here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Back to -FZRAPL here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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