Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Chew on this; obviously it's nowcast time, but the Euro had been consistent for a few runs, then shifted SE and dry. Meanwhile, the GFS ensembles have gotten wetter and wetter for awhile; now several of them at the 18z have .25-.50" of liquid in SE Wisconsin. The models love to flip flop with each other. I think you'll do ok with precip up that way. The short term guidance looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 creeper ice storm in the making for chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 prob close to as good as it gets for sleet and ice close to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 creeper ice storm in the making for chicago? I've been wondering if the ice might overperform. Heavy precip rates could throw the ptype off or make accretion a little more difficult so it's a tough call. Of course your microclimate will probably spare you and keep you at 32.3 during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Precip has really expanded and intensified over the cold sector the last few hours. About every precip type imaginable falling over MO... http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/14/jan122.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I've been wondering if the ice might overperform. Heavy precip rates could throw the ptype off or make accretion a little more difficult so it's a tough call. Of course your microclimate will probably spare you and keep you at 32.3 during the event. still 37 here but starting to drop off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm right on the sleet/snow line! At 32.4° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I love the Geos exclamation points.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Precip has really expanded and intensified over the cold sector the last few hours. About every precip type imaginable falling over MO... SICK radar shot! Lol i'm a sucker for all those bright colors.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looking at RAP fcst soundings, ARR gets very close to changing over to all snow or actually changes over near 6z. There is about a 100-150mb isothermal layer right at 0 deg C so better precip rates would favor snow in that situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS is almost a bullseye for ORD temp/dewpoint at this hour. 12z GFS: 34/26 12z NAM: 38/30 Actual: 34/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I love the Geos exclamation points.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looking at RAP fcst soundings, ARR gets very close to changing over to all snow or actually changes over near 6z. There is about a 100-150mb isothermal layer right at 0 deg C so better precip rates would favor snow in that situation That's what I'm hoping happens for more of the Chi metro, an ice storm would be a terrible thing with the extended period of at least seasonable cold on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Sitting at 32 here. ARR down to 31. DKB to 29 on 0z obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 interesting set-up regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 creeper ice storm in the making for chicago? I'd dig an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I love the Geos exclamation points.. It's a close call whether it's going to half sleet half snow, or mostly snow and some sleet. lol Could those map colors above be any brighter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This will be a good night to mess around with dual-pol products. The DVN radar shows that all the precip west of Galesburg is snow. Something to watch on the LOT radar later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 So Im just curious. Are most Chicago posters hoping ORD breaks the streak tonight/tomorrow or keeps it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 MKX just issued a WWA for the SE corner of the CWA. WIZ065-066-070>072-131200-/O.NEW.KMKX.WW.Y.0001.130113T0300Z-130113T1200Z/WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE...KENOSHA616 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO6 AM CST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED AWINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION...WHICH ISIN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY.* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED MAINLY FROM 9 PM THROUGH 3 AM...WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FROM 3 AM TO 6 AM.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ONE AND A HALF TO THREE INCHES. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ONE HALF TO ONE INCH.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A HALF MILE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I think I'm right in the bullseye for significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Seems like this is a good time to post this. It's a paper that shows urban modification of freezing rain frequency (and also being near a large body of water in the case of Chicago) for various US cities. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%282003%29042%3C0863%3AUMOFE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Amazing low-level baroclinic zone with this. Temps pushing 70 over the southern tip of IL, while northwest IL has temps in the mid 20s. Dews range from the mid 60s to the teens from south to northwest IL. No precip yet here, but it should be all snow. Temp down to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 0Z DVN sounding... About a 150mb deep zone of temps near 0C from around 900mb up to 750mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0617 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN INDIANA...NRN/CNTRL/W-CNTRL IL...PARTS OF E-CNTRL/SERN/S-CNTRL MO CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 130017Z - 130615Z SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES ALSO POSSIBLE. FREEZING RAIN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE CHICAGO AND ST. LOUIS AREAS AFTER 04Z. DISCUSSION...A LARGE SHIELD OF CONVECTIVE-DEBRIS-RELATED PRECIPITATION WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH A TENDENCY FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES TO SHIFT NEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONGER ASCENT. AS SUBFREEZING SFC-LAYER TEMPERATURES UNDERCUT THE ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION...THE LEADING EDGE OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ADVANCE ESEWD ACROSS THE REGION. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS LEADING EDGE...A 40-70-MILE WIDE CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH LIQUID-EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.10 IN/HR. LOCALLY HIGHER RATES MAY OCCUR OWING TO A MODEST CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT ASSOCIATED WITH NARROW ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES. THE FREEZING-RAIN CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO NWRN INDIANA BY 07Z. SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES ASSOCIATED WITH PREVIOUSLY FALLEN LIQUID MAY INITIALLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ICING ON MANY SURFACES...ASIDE FROM ELEVATED/METAL SURFACES. REGARDLESS...OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MO INTO NERN OK INDICATE PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING...AND SFC ICING WILL BE LIKELY. TO THE WNW OF THE FREEZING-RAIN CORRIDOR...DEEPER COLD AIR WILL LIMIT/PRECLUDE MELTING OF DESCENDING HYDROMETERS AND SUPPORT SLEET AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL PROGRESSIVELY TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW FROM WNW TO ESE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN IL. PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AREA-WIDE BY 09Z AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS NE OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 16 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING ONGOING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NERN OK...SERN KS...CNTRL MO...AND W-CNTRL IL. ..COHEN.. 01/13/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 creeper ice storm in the making for chicago? Ice storm potential has been underplayed I think... really think somewhere in IL could end up with some significant icing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looks like the dry air may end up eating up a lot of the qpf for the QC. No precip reports at all in Iowa and about the northwest 1/3 of MO. DVN radar shows precip struggling to reach the surface in the cold air. The NE/SW oriented frontal zone and associated heavy precip may end up screwing the pooch for this area. Glad I low-balled with my 1" call. Could bust high even on that if this dry air doesn't saturate in a big hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Seems like this is a good time to post this. It's a paper that shows urban modification of freezing rain frequency (and also being near a large body of water in the case of Chicago) for various US cities. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%282003%29042%3C0863%3AUMOFE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 I meant to post this graphic earlier from the U of I http://www.isws.illinois.edu/atmos/statecli/ice/ice.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looks like the dry air may end up eating up a lot of the qpf for the QC. No precip reports at all in Iowa and about the northwest 1/3 of MO. DVN radar shows precip struggling to reach the surface in the cold air. The NE/SW oriented frontal zone and associated heavy precip may end up screwing the pooch for this area. Glad I low-balled with my 1" call. Could bust high even on that if this dry air doesn't saturate in a big hurry. wonder if thats why the euro was so dry for us @ 12z. Do models figure in dry air- virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I remember that map above^. Yeah the lake definitely seems to help keep ice events down. Usually in an over running situations the winds are east. Can deal w/o the ice. Interesting paper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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