cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 junk model DVN tossed it. Pretty significant outlier. FOR TONIGHT...OFTHE SHORT RANGE MODELS...THE RAP IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITHSNOWFALL AMOUNTS...SUGGESTING 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THEMISSISSIPPI RIVER. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF ARE MORECONSERVATIVE WITH 2-3 INCHES AT MOST. THUS WILL FAVOR A BLEND OFTHE NAM AND ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR MOISTURE PARAMETERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Mid 30s starting to creep into the county now. Dewpoint down to 29°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty large slug of precip lifting north out of southeast KS/northeast OK/southwest MO. This is the beginning of our wave. Wish this thing would slow down a bit and dig in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty large slug of precip lifting north out of southeast KS/northeast OK/southwest MO. This is the beginning of our wave. Wish this thing would slow down a bit and dig in. amazing baroclinic potential that is going to go largely untapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If you can keep your Flash player from crashing...You can watch precip reports as they occur: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/ This will do a good job of seeing when/where the changeovers are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 cool link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Spotter report of some sleet southeast of the QC FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 decent juice, excellent baroclinic zone...shame this isn't going to be a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Spotter report of some sleet southeast of the QC FWIW. believable...rather large and increasing gap between surface cold and mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 MKX MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EXPECTEDLOCATION OF SNOW TONIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES WITH AMOUNTSTHOUGH. THE LATEST COUPLE NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN THE HEAVYHITTER...COMING IN WITH BETWEEN 0.4 AND 0.5 INCHES LIQUID IN THE FARSOUTHEAST. IT IS AN OUTLIER THOUGH...SO KEPT AMOUNTS MORE TOWARDOTHER MODELS...WHICH HAVE REMAINED PRETTY STEADY. OVERALL...THINKLIQUID WILL RANGE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS NORTHWEST...TO AS HIGH AS0.3 IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.SNOW RATIOS ARE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC...AS IT WILL BE PRETTY CHILLYIN THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT MILDER ALOFT...SO THICKNESSES ARE ON THEHIGH SIDE. ALSO...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE MAY BE A LAYERSLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SLEET OR SNOWPELLETS. ANY TYPE OF MIX WOULD CUT DOWN ON TOTAL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THISPOSSIBILITY IN THE AREA OF HIGHEST QPF...KEPT HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTSIN THE SOUTHEAST IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE. GIVEN THE AMOUNTS AND THEFACT THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT HIGH...AND MOST OF THE SNOW WILLFALL WHILE TRAFFIC IS LIGHT...OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 decent juice, excellent baroclinic zone...shame this isn't going to be a monster Yeah this could have been a huge storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS kicks the sleet out of here and for ORD at about midnight - 1am or so. Yeah it's a shame this couldn't have been some negative tilted monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS kicks the sleet out of here and for ORD at about midnight - 1am or so. Yeah it's a shame this couldn't have been some negative tilted monster. Sweet...I will have to check here. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 EVV now under Tornado Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sweet...I will have to check here. I Just south of you, the plot point is riding the sleet line until 3am. BTW: that is a really cool link Huronicane! Looks like a snow report popped up near Cycloneville on the PING map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Just south of you, the plot point is riding the sleet line until 3am. BTW: that is a really cool link Huronicane! Looks like a snow report popped up near Cycloneville on the PING map. Yeah, it is a cool link! I would much rather see a sleet/snow mix than freezing rain! ZR is scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 We have a tornado warning for Evansville, IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sleet reported near Antioch IL. Sleet actually falling here at the house as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 INC129-163-KYC101-122245- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-130112T2245Z/ VANDERBURGH IN-POSEY IN-HENDERSON KY- 415 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL POSEY AND VANDERBURGH COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND NORTH CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY UNTIL 445 PM CST... AT 412 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF KASSON...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HENDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THOSE ATTENDING THE MONSTER TRUCK RALLY AT THE FORD CENTER SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY...IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. AS A LAST RESORT... EITHER PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN IN A LOW LYING AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Severe damage reported in Livingston Co, KY with this storm: 2118 UNK HAMPTON LIVINGSTON KY 3728 8837 LATE REPORT. BRICK CHURCH IN TOWN COMPLETLY FLATTENED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sleet reported near Antioch IL. Sleet actually falling here at the house as well. Nothing here yet. Temperature is starting to drop quicker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nothing here yet. Temperature is starting to drop quicker though. You should see some soon. Rockford reporting freezing rain KRFD 122226Z 27008KT 7SM -FZRAPL OVC070 M01/M06 A2999 RMK AO2 PLB17 P0001 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 LOT pulled the trigger. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL431 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA...ILZ003>006-008-010>012-130645-/O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0001.130113T0200Z-130113T1500Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA431 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO9 AM CST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIXED SNOW... SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICHIS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY.* TIMING...BRIEF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON... BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE TRAVEL PROBLEMS. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW... MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES... WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM CST THIS EVENING.* MAIN IMPACT...SLIPPERY TRAVEL WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.* OTHER IMPACTS...SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE BY 3 AM. SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND MID MORNING SUNDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 A little rain started around 3 and after about twenty minutes switched to sleet. A light coating of sleet on the deck now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Light freezing rain and sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Had a little bit of drizzle, but it quit. Down to 34° now. Dwpt: 27°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Damage from Livingston County, KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Chew on this; obviously it's nowcast time, but the Euro had been consistent for a few runs, then shifted SE and dry. Meanwhile, the GFS ensembles have gotten wetter and wetter for awhile; now several of them at the 18z have .25-.50" of liquid in SE Wisconsin. The models love to flip flop with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Amazing low-level baroclinic zone with this. Temps pushing 70 over the southern tip of IL, while northwest IL has temps in the mid 20s. Dews range from the mid 60s to the teens from south to northwest IL. No precip yet here, but it should be all snow. Temp down to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 LOT aviation WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING ABOUT A 5-7 HOUR LONG PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FROM MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIP TYPE FORECAST IS TRICKY WITH WARM LAYER ALOFT LIKELY TO RESULT IN POTENTIALLY RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. RECENT ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF CHICAGO HAVE SHOWN PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER...WITH EVEN WEET BULBS ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 800MB CONFIRMING WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN COOLING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH SURFACE WET BULD TEMPS NOW BELOW FREEZING IT WOULD APPEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO START OUT AS ALL RAIN IS LOOKING LOWER AND LOWER...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET APPEARING TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. COULD SEE A TRANSITION TOWARD SNOW JUST PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION ENDING LATE TONIGHT...WITH LINGER FREEZING DRIZZLE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AFTER THE STEADIER PRECIP ENDS. ANY FZDZ LIKELY TO END BY MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH CIGS GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH FRONTAL INVERSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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