TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yes, but hard to get too excited over 2 or 3" of snow. Hey, I have yet to even get that much snow at once, so I would GLADLY take it. I looks like you have already settled in your role as a northern Michigander. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wow, the 12Z NAM shows a lot sleet for Milwaukee, Chicago, and Muskegon! Hopefully, the precip. will fall heavier and we can mix the warm air out to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What if the warm layer is around or above 700 mb? I ask this because the NAM shows the 1000-700mb 0C line right over Milwaukee as the heaviest precip is falling, but the 1000-850mb 0C line (the black one on Wxcaster) is well to our SE. It would more than likely mean sleet. The 6z GFS looks good for all snow as it keeps the column below freezing except for a brief period at the onset of precip. The 12z Nam keeps the 850-750mb layer very close to freezing the entire time. I am kind of worried we could see more sleet than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 So if the NAM has me getting .5 (liquid equiv.) of sleet that would equal 1 to 2 inches of actual sleet on the ground, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It would more than likely mean sleet. The 6z GFS looks good for all snow as it keeps the column below freezing except for a brief period at the onset of precip. The 12z Nam keeps the 850-750mb layer very close to freezing the entire time. I am kind of worried we could see more sleet than snow. If it's very close to freezing, then I don't think it's a huge concern. Most of the short range models I have seen have a short period of mix/sleet (probably the first hour) then changeover to all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If it's very close to freezing, then I don't think it's a huge concern. Most of the short range models I have seen have a short period of mix/sleet (probably the first hour) then changeover to all snow. Its cutting it pretty close though, probably have to wait till the event begins to unfold to determine the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Its cutting it pretty close though, probably have to wait till the event begins to unfold to determine the precip type. Do you think dynamic cooling could have an effect on precip type in this situation even if the upper level temps are around or slightly above freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z GFS is warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I also love the second batch of precip. that forms and gives southeast MI snow. Congrats, everybody in MI except SW Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Beginning to think we may see a quick, wet 4-5" from this. TONIGHT...ANOTHER CONVOLUTED STORY ALTOGETHER. SFC WAVE OVER TEXASTHIS MORNING EXPECTED TO ROCKET UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/EXTREMESE LOWER MICHIGAN AREA TONIGHT...COURTESY OF STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCEREGION JET FORCING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURE APPEARSLIKELY THAT WE GET A NICE ROUND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD UP INTO THECWA AS A RESULT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE ALOFTREMAINING TO RESULT IN VARIOUS P-TYPE ISSUES WITH PRECIP RUNNINGTHE GAMBIT FROM SNOW OVER THE W/NW PART OF THE CWA TRANSITIONINGTO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES. WILL HAVETO SORT THROUGH THE VARIOUS PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND ACCUMULATIONSTHIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY SOME SORT OF HEADLINES WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Beginning to think we may see a quick, wet 4-5" from this. TONIGHT...ANOTHER CONVOLUTED STORY ALTOGETHER. SFC WAVE OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO ROCKET UP THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/EXTREME SE LOWER MICHIGAN AREA TONIGHT...COURTESY OF STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET FORCING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SURE APPEARSLIKELY THAT WE GET A NICE ROUND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD UP INTO THECWA AS A RESULT...MAINLY OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT REMAINING TO RESULT IN VARIOUS P-TYPE ISSUES WITH PRECIP RUNNING THE GAMBIT FROM SNOW OVER THE W/NW PART OF THE CWA TRANSITIONING TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN IN THE FAR SE COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO SORT THROUGH THE VARIOUS PRECIP TYPE ISSUES AND ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SUFFICE TO SAY SOME SORT OF HEADLINES WILLLIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE CWA. Good... More the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Do you think dynamic cooling could have an effect on precip type in this situation even if the upper level temps are around or slightly above freezing I would think thats a possibility with the strong upward vertical motion and heavy precip rates but I am also worried about the warming effects due to condensation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I also love the second batch of precip. that forms and gives southeast MI snow. Congrats, everybody in MI except SW Michigan. I'm too far west also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 MKX calling for 1.7" of snow in Madison and 2.5" in Milwaukee tonight. They're probably expecting high ratios with these cold temps, about optimal for snow growth especially considering the gradual warming with altitude in the lower atmosphere. I initially thought this would be all powder but we could see some nice dendrites since things stay almost balmy at 850 (-3 to -5 C). It's also possible that dry air will ruin totals and I'll get half an inch of powder. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks like the 12z runs have come in line with what the Euro was suggesting. Maybe we can squeak out a little snow here tomorrow and get Tim to return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Dang, the Euro just flipped back to a weaker and farther east track. 12z run says just a bit of light snow or flurries nw of Burlington to Rockford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Wow, the 12Z NAM shows a lot sleet for Milwaukee, Chicago, and Muskegon! Hopefully, the precip. will fall heavier and we can mix the warm air out to get snow. Actually it doesn't from here on north. There is some, but not alot. One of the NAM map shows 3-5" for Chicagoland and about about the same for you! Already down to 40° here. Cooling off faster than forecast. Confidence growing for 2" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 HPC showing an elevated icing potential for SEMI, way more bullish than DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Dang, the Euro just flipped back to a weaker and farther east track. 12z run says just a bit of light snow or flurries nw of Burlington to Rockford. Haha...so the NAM and GFS catch up to it and it goes the other direction? The models are like siblings...they never want to completely agree. This gives me a little more hope for snow tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Actually it doesn't from here on north. There is some, but not alot. One of the NAM map shows 3-5" for Chicagoland and about about the same for you! Already down to 40° here. Cooling off faster than forecast. Confidence growing for 2" or more. I like the sounds of that! You are looking good for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z Euro is less bullish with precip on the nw side for IA area but it's not really colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Nobody can win with this storm, except perhaps NW lower Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12z Euro is less bullish with precip on the nw side for IA area but it's not really colder. Looks better for a brief changeover for the both of us. Wunderground map shows 2-4 inches for you. Not that I believe it, but would be nice to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Are the maps for icing referring strictly to freezing rain, or sleet as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hopefully the euro is not a sign of things to come for my football evening.. There is only one guarantee tonight and that is I'll be ****faced come 8:30. Did seem we cooled down faster this am and that had me worried of some east and weaker solutions but the GFS and NAM looked ok. w/e not going to let the weather effect me today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Are the maps for icing referring strictly to freezing rain, or sleet as well? Pretty sure just zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks better for a brief changeover for the both of us. Wunderground map shows 2-4 inches for you. Not that I believe it, but would be nice to see some snow.Could you please post the link for the snow accum. maps? I have had trouble finding them on underground.Thanks, Hoosier for the other post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 wasn't going to take much change at all to make this a non-event the euro shows. I'm actually surprised there hasn't been more little swings like the euro the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This might be overdone but does fall in line with the 12z gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 hopefully the euro is not a sign of things to come for my football evening.. There is only one guarantee tonight and that is I'll be ****faced come 8:30. Did seem we cooled down faster this am and that had me worried of some east and weaker solutions but the GFS and NAM looked ok. w/e not going to let the weather effect me today. Only thing you will have to worry about is whether or not we will be playing in Lambeau next Sunday. Euro shows basically nothing for us in S WI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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