wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 How does it look for West Michigan? The 850 0C line is right on top of you for much of the time, so probably a mixture of sleet and freezing rain for most, perhaps even some rain unfortunately, turning to snow. 0.35" QPF, so moisture shouldn't be an issue. You're probably just a tad too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Pretty much ditto here too. Across the border it's pretty much the same story, but without the rain or freezing rain. GGEM looks like a switch to some good snow for here in this image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 At least at the 850mb at ORD look to stay around or below -2°C during most of the event. GGEM would be ORD's best case scenario to get the best snow, GFS being second best at this point. Gotta watch the column temperatures as colder air filters in tomorrow afternoon. -See how deep it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 850 0C line is right on top of you for much of the time, so probably a mixture of sleet and freezing rain for most, perhaps even some rain unfortunately, turning to snow. 0.35" QPF, so moisture shouldn't be an issue. You're probably just a tad too far east. Ugh, was that for Muskegon, or west Michigan as a whole? Do you happen to have a snowfall map or totals from the EURO.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Ugh, was that for Muskegon, or west Michigan as a whole? Do you happen to have a snowfall map or totals from the EURO.? From what I can see, surface temperatures were freezing or below. 850mb temperatures hang between 0- -2°C. Not sure if it's warmer above that level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 From what I can see, surface temperatures were freezing or below. 850mb temperatures hang between 0- -2°C. Not sure if it's warmer above that level. Thanks, Geos. Are you looking at a paid website? I used to look at the EURO runs on weather underground, but I don't understand how the new maps work. I think our society makes things too complicated in "updating" hings all the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Thanks, Geos. Are you looking at a paid website? I used to look at the EURO runs on weather underground, but I don't understand how the new maps work. I think our society makes things too complicated in "updating" hings all the time... No I'm not. Just trying to decipher the wunderground maps! Maybe someone else can see the info for Muskegon better off a paid site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The word is overused...but I do think this is gonna be a nowcast event for Chi-town. What with the possible warm layer aloft, the time it'll take to saturate down to the surface and whether dynamic cooling will be enough for a total change over to snow in any mesoscale banding (and where those bands will set up)... Def gonna be a nail-biter for futility's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The word is overused...but I do think this is gonna be a nowcast event for Chi-town. What with the possible warm layer aloft, the time it'll take to saturate down to the surface and whether dynamic cooling will be enough for a total change over to snow in any mesoscale banding (and where those bands will set up)... Def gonna be a nail-biter for futility's sake. Good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 6Z NAM wetter for WI peeps with a broader prepip shield overall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Seems like the models are zeroing in on the area between I-55 and I-57 corridor as the area to watch for best icing. Of course we'll have to watch the progress of the low level cold to see if it tries to sneak in a little quicker. HPC going with MOD probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Only call for ORD, 0.5" of sleet and 0.7" snow. Futility over and buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Only call for ORD, 0.5" of sleet and 0.7" snow. Futility over and buried.Ima go with 0.5" of sleet and 0.4" snow. The very low ratio sleet will hog/waste all the frozen qpf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Oh boy, looks like I'm in for a wet one. If only the precip were frozen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Oh boy, looks like I'm in for a wet one. If only the precip were frozen! We are below average for the last several months, I will gladly take this even if it is liquid. The last above average month was July, so we are running on 5 months and counting, with not much down the line after tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Oh boy, looks like I'm in for a wet one. If only the precip were frozen! Flood warnings, watches, and hydrological outlooks out all across IN. Hard to believe after what it was like 5 months ago here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Only call for ORD, 0.5" of sleet and 0.7" snow. Futility over and buried. .5" of sleet is going to bust hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yup, I went from being too far northwest for much to directly being too far southeast. This winter has just been one beatdiown after another. I am about 3 and 1/2 feet of snow in the whole of where I should be and the beat goes on. Enjoy, weatherbo and Wisconsin friends. It looks like this event is yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 .5" of sleet is going to bust hard 3:1 ratio, .1666 liquid equivalent, I don't think its that far off. I might be .1" too high. Both 06Z GFS and NAM runs have around .2" sleet and around 0.05" liquid for snow for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 pretty cool watching the thickness lines race east on the mesoanalysis page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 pretty cool watching the thickness lines race east on the mesoanalysis page Yeah faster East they come the more snow you might end up with and further more the better the chances the futility record is eclipsed tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What if the warm layer is around or above 700 mb? I ask this because the NAM shows the 1000-700mb 0C line right over Milwaukee as the heaviest precip is falling, but the 1000-850mb 0C line (the black one on Wxcaster) is well to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 We are below average for the last several months, I will gladly take this even if it is liquid. The last above average month was July, so we are running on 5 months and counting, with not much down the line after tonight. Oh, me too. I typically dislike winter rain but I've been preaching since last month, I'll take any kind of precip. The last thing we need is a dry winter after a summer like we had, then we would really be screwed if next summer was dry too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yup, I went from being too far northwest for much to directly being too far southeast. This winter has just been one beatdiown after another. I am about 3 and 1/2 feet of snow in the whole of where I should be and the beat goes on. Enjoy, weatherbo and Wisconsin friends. It looks like this event is yours. Yes, but hard to get too excited over 2 or 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looking pretty good for cyclone... maybe a few inches of snow. Cedar Rapids looks more like an inch or less, just enough to re-white the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I like how the second surge of moisture tomorrow afternoon and evening seems to be trending west each run. Maybe the eastern portion of Michigan can get a little snow with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Yeah faster East they come the more snow you might end up with and further more the better the chances the futility record is eclipsed tonight. tough call, i'm not confident either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 tough call, i'm not confident either way. I agree, but more models are showing mixed precip for the Chicago area. Skilling's RPM and the 0z WRF NMM are among them. Unless the likely sleet is tallied as snow, I think it is not likely they will hit an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 meso analysis has the surface and 850 lines well ahead of the pack...mixed bag incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I agree, but more models are showing mixed precip for the Chicago area. Skilling's RPM and the 0z WRF NMM are among them. Unless the likely sleet is tallied as snow, I think it is not likely they will hit an inch. sleet is, usually at a 3:1 ratio roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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