Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Somewhat amusing how the areas that have been shafted all winter are just to the east of that line. You know I'm grrrrring inside riht now, Hoosier. Hmmmmm? Do you know where you are located on that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Hmmmmm? Do you know where you are located on that map? Lol...the red line, Harry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Lol...the red line, Harry. K.. Just checking. I asked because you made it sound like you were east of that line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 What is driving me crazy is all models develop a defo zone in E Kansas and through C Missouri, but the GFS and NAM weaken and push the system off to the east way too quickly, while the GEM, UKMET, Euro and SREFs maintain and perhaps even slightly beef up this zone. It is happening consistently, and it is making me wonder. Which models would you trust to handle the defo zone formation and collapse the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Something that has yet to be pointed out, but MKX's update did are the rather low snow:liquid ratios thanks to the warmish upper levels. Since the ratios are determined by the dendritic growth zone in the atmosphere rather than surface temps, that's the important aspect when it comes to ratios. Unfortunately, this will hamper accumulation even in the heart of the areas that see mostly or all snow. MKX is suggesting 10:1 or even lower ratios. I wouldn't have though that, because the snow isn't accumulated in the atmosphere. I figured as long as it was freezing through the column, the ratios would be determined by the ground temperatures. I don't think I've ever seen a 10:1 ratio snow in the mid 20s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 I wouldn't have though that, because the snow isn't accumulated in the atmosphere. I figured as long as it was freezing through the column, the ratios would be determined by the ground temperatures. I don't think I've ever seen a 10:1 ratio snow in the mid 20s! You'll get riming if layers aloft are hanging around 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z GFS with no warm layer problems here...all snow once column saturates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 K.. Just checking. I asked because you made it sound like you were east of that line. Actually, I am just to the east of that line. Only the extreme northwestern part of Muskegon county would be on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z GFS with no warm layer problems here...all snow once column saturates. Good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looks like we're in for around an inch or so. Might not have much in the way of precip type issues here, but moisture back in the cold air looks meager. This looks like a quick moving wave along the stalled boundary, which focuses most of the precip near that boundary. Sure wish it could slow down and wrap up more. This thing probably wasn't too far away from a pretty major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This will end up being a nowcast event for members under the frozen precip threat. Can't wait to see what the higher resolution models show tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 0z GFS would give close to 2" at ORD it looks like or close to it. That might be generous...they are fighting the warm layer until after 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 This will end up being a nowcast event for members under the frozen precip threat. Can't wait to see what the higher resolution models show tomorrow. I always appreciate your positivity, Geos...I am going to follow the warmest of models, as unfortunately in events we have had the past two years, whichever model is the warmest picks up on some warm layer somewhere and is usually right. I am hoping that I am pleasantly surprised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I always appreciate your positivity, Geos...I am going to follow the warmest of models, as unfortunately in events we have had the past two years, whichever model is the warmest picks up on some warm layer somewhere and is usually right. I am hoping that I am pleasantly surprised though. I'm going to say you start as sleet and turn over to about 2" of snow, which is similar to what I would forecast for Milwaukee, though probably all snow here and 1.5" of accumulation as we're just a tad too far west for the more intense precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm going to say you start as sleet and turn over to about 2" of snow, which is similar to what I would forecast for Milwaukee, though probably all snow here and 1.5" of accumulation as we're just a tad too far west for the more intense precip. I think you're right that there will be more intense precip. here, and if it falls heavy enough, can mix the warm air out of the atmosphere. I was excited after the 18Z NAM, but the 00Z has so much warm air mixed in. Hopefully it is just one of the NAM's tricks....and it could show colder again in the morning. It is encouraging to see the GFS stay pretty consistent, if not a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS sounding just south of Muskegon at 33 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Looking at the surface map, the GEM has the low in just about the same spot, maybe a tad NW at 30 hours than it did at 12z 45 hours (since it looks like it sped up three hours or so, these are the times I compared). Also a millibar or two stronger. Haven't looked at precip yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 If 700 mb temps get any warmer, we'll have to start worrying about a cap bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 21z SREF mean shifted back a bit to the southeast. Also a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The 0z RGEM was all IP/ZR at Chicago, btw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not a big difference in the 0z Euro, in fact, the low position at 24 hours looked almost the same as 36 hours of 12z. Just a tad less QPF in the cold sector, especially when the deformation area develops in Missouri. Probably around a quarter inch QPF in some areas that are mostly snow, much of Eastern Wisconsin, NW Illinois, and the Quad Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Seems like the models are zeroing in on the area between I-55 and I-57 corridor as the area to watch for best icing. Of course we'll have to watch the progress of the low level cold to see if it tries to sneak in a little quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Well whoever can look at soundings off the Euro already, still mid-level warming here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 Precip hangs back more on the Euro...looks like a shot of some mixy stuff here on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 for my area Rain, snow, and sleet likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 23. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS sounding just south of Muskegon at 33 hr. I have seen this a few time posted on here. Can someone give me a quick rundown on it. I am assuming it is temperature chart from ground level up into the upper atmoshere. Because the temp runs a tick above zero between 1389-2942 this would represent very wet snow or sleet. And the wind vectors on the RHS show the amount of loft in the clouds. Sorry to sound like such a noob.... Just learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 for my area Rain, snow, and sleet likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 23. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible Not bad. DVN's point for here is less bullish. Might not be a bad idea given how fast this thing will blow on through here. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 16. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I have seen this a few time posted on here. Can someone give me a quick rundown on it. I am assuming it is temperature chart from ground level up into the upper atmoshere. Because the temp runs a tick above zero between 1389-2942 this would represent very wet snow or sleet. And the wind vectors on the RHS show the amount of loft in the clouds. Sorry to sound like such a noob.... Just learning Yeah temps above 800mb poke a bit above 0C, which probably means at least a sleet mixture, if not all sleet at that given forecast point. The wind barbs on the right side are just different wind speed/velocities at that given mb height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 for my area Rain, snow, and sleet likely before midnight, then snow. Low around 23. North northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible Pretty much ditto here too. Across the border it's pretty much the same story, but without the rain or freezing rain. GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not a big difference in the 0z Euro, in fact, the low position at 24 hours looked almost the same as 36 hours of 12z. Just a tad less QPF in the cold sector, especially when the deformation area develops in Missouri. Probably around a quarter inch QPF in some areas that are mostly snow, much of Eastern Wisconsin, NW Illinois, and the Quad Cities. How does it look for West Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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