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January 12-14 Potential Winter Weather Event


Hoosier

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  On 1/11/2013 at 4:39 PM, wisconsinwx said:

This will be my last comment on the subject, the reason I brought up the airports' measurements is because they measured 3.0" and 3.1" in the two main events this year, and I still claim that we have not had a 3" event this year because those totals are too close to give me much confidence they actually did reach 3" in those events.

ultimate facepalm

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  On 1/11/2013 at 5:59 PM, Allsnow said:

Euro even further nw. Brings snow back to Cedar Rapids. Mid level problems for Chicago

 

Above 850mb? Western suburbs stay well below freezing at sfc and 850mb.

 

Unless it's above then ORD will get it.

 

ORD

 

SUN 06Z 13-JAN  -1.4    -1.3    1013      71     100    0.13     559     548    SUN 12Z 13-JAN  -3.7    -1.3    1014      81      42    0.16     555     544    SUN 18Z 13-JAN  -3.4    -4.1    1016      67      22    0.01     550     538
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  On 1/11/2013 at 6:03 PM, Allsnow said:

Looks to start as mix, then go to snow. But with only .25+ of liquid, would think around a inch

 

Surface temperatures will be in the 20s so higher ratio.

 

GGEM/RGEM look good to bust the ORD futility record!

I say it goes down this weekend!

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  On 1/11/2013 at 6:33 PM, wisconsinwx said:

Based on Alek's map, probably mixing issues from Racine and even the airport south. Keep in mind this would be occurring overnight, which doesn't hurt for sure.

Figures... Sounds like a setup for sleet with that warm layer above 850mb.

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  On 1/11/2013 at 6:44 PM, Brewers said:

Figures... Sounds like a setup for sleet with that warm layer above 850mb.

 

The 850mb layer is below freezing over our area starting at 42 hours, then continues to cool.

 

What the RGEM shows:

 

PT_PN_048_0000.gif

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  On 1/11/2013 at 6:58 PM, Brewers said:
  On 1/11/2013 at 6:49 PM, Geos said:

The 850mb layer is below freezing over our area starting at 42 hours, then continues to cool.

Yeah the surface to 850 looks good but if there's a layer above freezing above 850 then sleet could be an issue.

 

The EURO is almost the NW outlier right now. At least in terms on how far northwest the snow gets.

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  On 1/11/2013 at 7:56 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

From 36-42hr on the Euro, H7 winds really back across northern IL to due south at 45kts which causes the WAA in that layer. GFS is not showing it as much.

 

snow winners this run are from northern MO, southeast IA up to FEP/DBQ and north of MKE.

 

you have to imagine that's what causes the increased moisture as well.  Kind of a double edged sword.

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  On 1/11/2013 at 7:33 PM, Geos said:

The EURO is almost the NW outlier right now. At least in terms on how far northwest the snow gets.

It's funny how we go from bring too far north and fighting dry air to now possibly dealing with issues regarding precip type.

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  On 1/11/2013 at 8:30 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Looks good for here too depending on mid level warmth and really hangs back precip into this area with a weak trowal look.

 

 

interesting watching models decide how much to back flow into the cold sector.  NAM has some omega creeping in as well. 

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  On 1/11/2013 at 8:30 PM, Thundersnow12 said:

Looks good for here too depending on mid level warmth and really hangs back precip into this area with a weak trowal look.

 

The further NW this one heads, the better chance for a decent deformation zone, so the potential certainly exists for some fun in this part of the region.  The NAM is the southeast model of the bunch, the Euro the NW, and the GFS and its ensembles generally in between.

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