Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 After a warm start to the weekend, there are growing indications of a wave of low pressure developing along the cold front and providing snow/sleet/freezing rain. There are some slight differences as to where this will set up but the threat appears to be legit. An early look at the new 00z NAM reveals a wintry mess for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 This storm is starting to look better and better for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 NAM drops 0.36", all snow, in 3 hours at GYY. Seems way overdone but eh, who knows. Maybe Chicago can finally get the inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 This storm is starting to look better and better for Chicago. Being in the NAM jackpot at 84 hours ftl. But in all seriousness, the general solution is not way out of line from previous runs of other models. NAM certainly looks beefy with qpf on the cold side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Hopefully this blows up, even if that means a mix for mby. Time for another storm in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 This thing does have potential as far as available juice goes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Watch Chi-town get 15"+ Then we shift the complaining back east Toward Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Watch Chi-town get 15"+ Then we shift the complaining back east Toward Detroit Don't be too sure. Remember there is a few who want that futility record for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Don't be too sure. Remember there is a few who want that futility record for Chicago. It's like Lion fans rooting for 0-16 season in 08! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 That is typically the favored track for good snows here on the GFS.. Just not quite cold enough till near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Hold that track and moisture....and get a bit colder....and I may get to finally shout for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 only if we could move the cold front a few hundred miles to the east. Rain rain go away..... for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 That is typically the favored track for good snows here on the GFS.. Just not quite cold enough till near the end. The GFS looks good for pretty much the region that has been screwed all winter. Lock it in! I am guessing the low cant go too far SE with the ridge..although the Canadian is taking the whole event waaaaay southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It's like Lion fans rooting for 0-16 season in 08! I was rooting for that, but only because of the draft. Too bad Chicago posters can't select a 24 inch dump with their 1st round selection in the 2013-2014 winter draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I was rooting for that, but only because of the draft. Too bad Chicago posters can't select a 24 inch dump with their 1st round selection in the 2013-2014 winter draft. Sickman would go 0.0" for the whole winter if this was an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I was rooting for that, but only because of the draft. Too bad Chicago posters can't select a 24 inch dump with their 1st round selection in the 2013-2014 winter draft. Never say never. Especially with the pattern we may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sickman would go 0.0" for the whole winter if this was an option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS says no accumulating snow for Chicago. A little bit of wintry mix and snow in southern Wisconsin. Probably will see a shift in the model solution as usual (especially at this range), but for now this strikes me as too warm to do any good, as you'd expect with a deep trough pumping air directly from the eastern Pacfic to the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS does show accumulating snow for Chicago... Looks like we're getting a good consensus that there will be an advisory event at least in the western Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS does show accumulating snow for Chicago... Looks like we're getting a good consensus that there will be an advisory event at least in the western Lakes. The new 00z GFS looks similar, but a bit weaker/further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The new 00z GFS looks similar, but a bit weaker/further southeast. That's alright, I don't want to be in the bulls eye still 4 days out! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0z Euro is southeast/weaker from the 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 0z Euro is southeast/weaker from the 12z solution. How about we make this the shortest storm thread in AmWx history and lock it? Just kidding, but if this gets any weaker, there will probably be no moisture in the cold sector, as there isn't much to begin with on most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro doesn't have much where it's cold enough to snow but looks like decent band of mix/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Several 0z GFS members further NW with more cold sector QPF but also several that are weaker like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Several 0z GFS members further NW with more cold sector QPF but also several that are weaker like the Euro. Yep, 8/12 have precip this far NW, with most of those being primarily snow; overall most of them are probably a mix of rain/ice/snow in the Chicago area, with a couple mostly or all snow, but more overall precip on average since they are further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro looks to be back were it was with the Jan 9th 00z run. 6z GFS is a wetter for SE WI but that's not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol. non-event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 LOT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED THIS PERIODAND OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN LIMITED IN THE SPECIFICS. THE SATURDAYCOLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREASATURDAY EVENING AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW RACES INTO NORTHERNQUEBEC. THE BIG WESTERN TROUGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BUTTHERE IS CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER WAVE ROUNDING ITS BASE AND LIFTINGNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NEWLY ESTABLISHED LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINICZONE RESULTING FROM THE STALLING FRONT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKSTO DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER WAVE.THIS ALL PROVIDES FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG ITS TRACK WHICH STILL HASROOM FOR ADJUSTMENTS. PRECIP TYPE AND COVERAGE IS THE MAIN ISSUEWITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ULTIMATELY THE TRACKOF THE SURFACE LOW DIRECTLY AFFECTING THESE ISSUES. LOW/MID LEVELCOLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY EVENING ONNORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHILE MILDER AIR REMAINS ALOFT AHEAD OF IT.GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACKNORTHWEST OF WHAT IT INDICATED THE LAST 2 NIGHTS WHICH PUTS MUCH OFTHE CWA WITHIN THE EXPECTED PRECIP AREA. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ARECONCERNS WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WITHWARMER AIR STILL ALOFT. SNOW MAY ALSO OCCUR IN THE MIX. AFTER THATITS A MATTER OF DETERMINING WHICH TYPE FALLS WHERE. BASED ON LATESTTHINKING THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY RAIN GIVENTHAT THEY WILL COOL LEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. JUST TO THENORTHWEST THERE LOOKS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL...WITH A CORRIDOR OF SLEET AND SNOWPOTENTIAL JUST NORTHWEST OF THAT...THEN PROBABLY A CORRIDOR OF ALLSNOW. EACH OF THESE CORRIDORS MAY BE RATHER NARROW BUT THE MAIN AREAOF CONCERN FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES IS MAINLY FROM ALONG AND EAST OF ALINE FROM CHICAGO SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWALOOKING TO TURN FROM RAIN TO SNOW TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE.AGAIN THIS IS DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE. LIQUID EQUIVALENTAMOUNTS LOOK TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH NONETO A FEW TENTHS FAR NORTHWEST. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYEON IF YOU TRAVELING ANYWHERE IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLYSUNDAY MORNING. ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY SUNDAY OR SOWITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS even less impressive than the unimpressive 6z GFS the 1/16-17 clipper will bring more snow than this turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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