Excessive rainfall event underway (LA/AR)

[janetjanet998]

I thought this needs a thread of it's own

 

2-6+ inches over much of LA aready

 

very wet pattern next few days...over LA and AR(drought here though)

 

Flash flood watches up

 

 MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM  25 SW KGUL 10 ENE KVAF 30 E GLS 45 WSW IER 35 E BAD 10 WNW BQP  20 S TVR 15 NE MCB 20 ESE MCB 35 NNW ASD 15 WSW ASD 30 W 2GL  30 WSW 2GL 40 NW XCN 25 ESE KGUL 25 SW KGUL.    HIGH RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM  30 NE 7R3 15 NE 7R3 7R3 P92 15 S P92 15 E KSCF KSCF 20 W KSCF  15 S KVNP KVNP 15 W 7R4 15 WSW LFT 15 NW LFT 25 SW HEZ  15 SSW MCB 20 NNE HDC 15 ENE HDC 25 SSW HDC 30 NE 7R3.    PINEY WOODS OF TX/LOUISIANA/WRN MISSISSIPPI/SRN ARKANSAS  ========================================================  WELL-DEFINED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED ON THE  SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG CLOSED LOW, WHICH IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE  RIO GRANDE FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO TEXAS.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE  EJECTING NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE INTO OKLAHOMA  ON THURSDAY, HELPING TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT AND QUASI-STATIONARY  STRONG SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF MOISTURE-RICH AIR OFF OF THE GULF OF  MEXICO.  ADD IN FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE EAST AND  SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE, AND  ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO  WESTERN MISSISSIPPI.     LIKE LAST NIGHT, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE IS FAST/EASTWARD ENOUGH WITH  THE CONVECTIVE PROGRESSION, NOT EVEN THE MORE EASTERN 12Z/18Z GFS  RUNS, WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS THE  SLOWEST/FARTHEST WEST.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT THIS IS DUE TO THEIR  POOR HANDLING OF LOW-LEVEL COOL POOLS FORMING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY  LAYER BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE LINE, WHICH IS EVEN SHOWING UP OVER  THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AT THE PRESENT TIME.   WITH RESPECT TO THE LATITUDE OF THE CONVECTION, WHILE THERE IS A  SIGNAL IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM WILL BE  REDEVELOPING NEAR THE WATER TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE THE  LOUISIANA COAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE DAY  FRIDAY, THIS HAS YET TO OCCUR.  IF IT DOES, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS WOULD BE LIMITED.    ISOLATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2" AN HOUR WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-8"  ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.   THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL GRAPHICS WERE GENERALLY  MAINTAINED, AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY LOWERED  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY.  GENERALLY LEFT  SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA (THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI) OUT OF THE RISK  AREAS ON THE GRAPHIC DUE TO THEIR EXTENSIVE WETLANDS.    

 

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

several more inches coming...rainfall way above normal so far

 

moderate-almost major flooding in the some areas now