Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[michsnowfreak]

I was just about to post asking if anyone has seen the latest Euro. From your description, it sounds like it looks good, meaning my spirits have been raised.

 

Honestly, this really is a bi-polar hobby. Happy with one run, then despondent after another. May as well enjoy the high for the next few hours.

I think about the only thing we can say with NEAR (not total) certainty is that it certainly appears that now that the snowpack-destroying torch has done its deed and started retreating, no more torch in the forseeable future. I mean, it is debatable how much cold will drain down...but it looks like the warmest case scenario would be seasonable temps.

 

As for next Monday...I went back and looked at the 00z Euro and it appears to have had sort of the same feature (a clipper ushering in arctic air) but with MUCH less qpf. And the 12z GFS also appears to have a dry clipper with meager qpf coming down that day. The 12z Canadian has something here too (perhaps 12-24 hours earlier) but it looks like it comes up from the south. So in the end, it does appear the Sunday-Tuesday timeframe bears watching.

[Jonger]

Buckeye time to update the 2012-2013 fail too. This winter would have to be soo backsided to make it normal, times a tickin and its not lookin good .

If you are referring to snowfall, maybe in Chicago or Muskegon, but not in Detroit or Windsor. We are only 4" below normal to date and using the longterm normals closer to 2" below normal to date. Obviously with each calendar day the deficit grows, but then again any snowstorm makes up a lot of ground in one day (for statistical purposes the average monthly snowfall is just divided into the number of days that month so the average daily snowfall is that number). And snowcover is right at normal. Its funny....and Ive said it before...no matter HOW much or how often it snows here you get complaints. Our typical nickel and dime snowfall, which is constantly belittled from some here, has gone missing this year. Rather, to get close to our snowfall instead of a steady stream of nickel and diming we had a 5-day "thump" of snow with hardly any snowfall on either side of that 5-day spell. And now THAT draws whining as being "1 week of winter". Also...if snow melts quickly it is "stat padding" and if it stays on the ground long it "gets old" and is boring. We can argue who is optimistic and pessimistic, we all have different opinions on what part of snow is most important to us, but one thing is certain - there is absolutely, positively NO formula that will EVER satisfy those in our region. None.

As for winter temp, it would take a COLD February to offset the warm December, so i dont think a colder-than-normal winter mean is in the offing, but i also have to LOL at assertions January will be as above normal as December. For that to happen, every model and indice would have to bust harder than ever before from here on out. At Detroit, we are at +5F on January as the torch is over. How much cold comes down is in the air but no way is a torch incoming, and Decembers departure was +5.8F.

Snowfall alone doesn't define a winter in my book. We are running about +6 on the DJF period so far.... Slightly higher than last year. Lansing is running 1/3rd normal snowfall and 1/2 of last year.

[IWXwx]

Maybe I'm missing something but it still looks like a decent cold shot in the longer range. The question is more about whether it's something extreme.

 

 

You arent missing anything. This is typical amwx!

 

I have little doubt that our subforum will see below normal temps, which for mid to late January standards is quite cold. However, the problem is that the models keep showing EXTREME cold in the extended only to back off and forum members are taking those long range models verbatim rather using them to determine trends, which are their original intent.

[QVectorman]

The models are and have been like a pregnant woman's mood swings. Funny watching everyone go from joy thursday night to bummed on friday to joy yesterday to bummed today and back to joy tomorrow. Until the model runs Jan 19-20 frame I'm not going to put much stock into the model mood swings in regards to the last week of Jan. and personally didn't expect anything less than for the models to temp the 15-23/24 temps. Even the last week of Jan I think we will end up with only -33c near the CA border.

[buckeye]

Maybe I'm missing something but it still looks like a decent cold shot in the longer range. The question is more about whether it's something extreme.

 

C'mon Hoosier,

No one, including myself, is denying it looks like a cold shot is coming.  But it looks more and more like a slightly below seasonable, run-or-the-mill. forgettable dead of winter dry cold shot for a few days.   MUCH different than the much advertised and hyped....(by practically every wx outlet/met),  HISTORIC 94 esque blast.

[SpartyOn]

wtf happened???

paging Historic Arctic Outbreak, please pick up the white phone.....

the second kick in the nuts comes when you think, "well, at least our snow chances might improve if it's not suppressively cold..." think again, still not a single storm anywhere thru next 2 weeks.

Yet the positive pollys continue to praise the turd covered in frosting. Well at least it is only the middle of Jan if there is any silver lining to all this.

[Hoosier]

C'mon Hoosier,

No one, including myself, is denying it looks like a cold shot is coming. But it looks more and more like a slightly below seasonable, run-or-the-mill. forgettable dead of winter dry cold shot for a few days. MUCH different than the much advertised and hyped....(by practically every wx outlet/met), HISTORIC 94 esque blast.

Well, anyone saying it would be another 1994 is not very responsible since we are talking about something that is still over a week out. How many record low temps (including some all-time state record low temps) fell in that outbreak?

[buckeye]

Buckeye time to update the 2012-2013 fail too. This winter would have to be soo backsided to make it normal, times a tickin and its not lookin good . 

 

I know, I've been lazy

[BowMeHunter]

lmaooooo.. 

 

Yet the positive pollys continue to praise the turd covered in frosting. Well at least it is only the middle of Jan if there is any silver lining to all this.

 

       

there is nothing exciting about cold with no snow to protect unless its epic cold.. won't break my heart if it doesn't happen.

[TugHillMatt]

Well, anyone saying it would be another 1994 is not very responsible since we are talking about something that is still over a week out. How many record low temps (including some all-time state record low temps) fell in that outbreak?

I think he is referring to the "cold outbreak" that was being called for later this week.

[Hoosier]

I think he is referring to the "cold outbreak" that was being called for later this week.

Still, it's not smart to call for something historic like that unless you can get it within a few days.

[SpartyOn]

The models are and have been like a pregnant woman's mood swings. Funny watching everyone go from joy thursday night to bummed on friday to joy yesterday to bummed today and back to joy tomorrow. Until the model runs Jan 19-20 frame I'm not going to put much stock into the model mood swings in regards to the last week of Jan. and personally didn't expect anything less than for the models to temp the 15-23/24 temps. Even the last week of Jan I think we will end up with only -33c near the CA border.

QV.

Got any early thoughts on Feb? Maybe a sneak peak.

[buckeye]

Still, it's not smart to call for something historic like that unless you can get it within a few days.

 

 

@BigJoeBastardi: GFS has most severe cold shot now since 94 winter. Trending even colder. New 288 hour is as severe as you see it http://t.co/Gk0ivacz @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF in support of pattern ideas. GFS is showing where this is going, ECMWF going to unload biggest US cold shot since 94 winter also @BigJoeBastardi: You dont dismiss a model that is showing what happened after other great stratwarm events. This stratwarm is similar to 1985 @BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF going to show same except its cold with the shot before in the 7-10.Its amazing how many people dont see we do have winter this

 

you're not say'n JB ain't smart are ya?

[TugHillMatt]

Snowfall alone doesn't define a winter in my book. We are running about +6 on the DJF period so far.... Slightly higher than last year. Lansing is running 1/3rd normal snowfall and 1/2 of last year.

Less than 10% of normal snowfall here..... Lol

[TugHillMatt]

you're not say'n JB ain't smart are ya?

I wouldn't say that.... JB is just not one to over hype...............

[DAFF]

QV.

Got any early thoughts on Feb? Maybe a sneak peak.

 

 

I must admit his reviews good or bad are one of my highlights to this winter. QV's thoughts and weather processes have opened my eye to the complexity of the weather and forecasting. While the models are great for the specific 0h-180h forecasting, nothing will beat real life experience and observations.

[A-L-E-K]

if this ridge slides east...look out

 

 

[DAFF]

If you are referring to snowfall, maybe in Chicago or Muskegon, but not in Detroit or Windsor. We are only 4" below normal to date and using the longterm normals closer to 2" below normal to date. Obviously with each calendar day the deficit grows, but then again any snowstorm makes up a lot of ground in one day (for statistical purposes the average monthly snowfall is just divided into the number of days that month so the average daily snowfall is that number). And snowcover is right at normal. Its funny....and Ive said it before...no matter HOW much or how often it snows here you get complaints. Our typical nickel and dime snowfall, which is constantly belittled from some here, has gone missing this year. Rather, to get close to our snowfall instead of a steady stream of nickel and diming we had a 5-day "thump" of snow with hardly any snowfall on either side of that 5-day spell. And now THAT draws whining as being "1 week of winter". Also...if snow melts quickly it is "stat padding" and if it stays on the ground long it "gets old" and is boring. We can argue who is optimistic and pessimistic, we all have different opinions on what part of snow is most important to us, but one thing is certain - there is absolutely, positively NO formula that will EVER satisfy those in our region. None.

 

As for winter temp, it would take a COLD February to offset the warm December, so i dont think a colder-than-normal winter mean is in the offing, but i also have to LOL at assertions January will be as above normal as December. For that to happen, every model and indice would have to bust harder than ever before from here on out. At Detroit, we are at +5F on January as the torch is over. How much cold comes down is in the air but no way is a torch incoming, and Decembers departure was +5.8F.

 

I was being more general in the total forum area. Sure we were the hot spot for the end of Dec WRT winter weather but all in all by the end of January my gut feeling is this deficit will increase. The good news is there is lots of winter to go so lets all hope for a few more memorable events to keep this winter interesting.

[SpartyOn]

if this ridge slides east...look out

Dang.

[IWXwx]

IND and IWX still buying into teeth chattering next week:
 
IND:
 
THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AGREES ON A TREND TOWARDS A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THIS SOLUTION
PLAYING OUT CONSIDERING THAT EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THAT THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS
OVER EASTERN CANADA. BOTH 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/OP GFS TODAY SHOWING
850MB TEMPS TO NEAR -20C BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
 
IWX:
 
TEMPS GENERALLY NR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE PD BFR FALLING OFF
THE TABLE BY DY9 AND BEYOND. IN FACT ECMWF/GFS TAKEN AT FACE VALUE
WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY NXT
WEEK W/LOWS WELL BLO ZERO AND READILY BOUGHT INTO GIVEN COMPOSITE
AO/NAO TELECONNECTION FCSTS TURNING STRONGLY NEGATIVE NXT WEEK.

[michsnowfreak]

I was being more general in the total forum area. Sure we were the hot spot for the end of Dec WRT winter weather but all in all by the end of January my gut feeling is this deficit will increase. The good news is there is lots of winter to go so lets all hope for a few more memorable events to keep this winter interesting.

There is a solid 3 months left to get a good snowstorm, which is all most here care about anyway, so I just cant bring myself to buy into this winter being anything CLOSE to last winter with so much to go. However the window for what I like (persistent snowcover) realistically only has 2 months to go.

[michsnowfreak]

IND and IWX still buying into teeth chattering next week:

 

IND:

 

THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AGREES ON A TREND TOWARDS A MUCH COLDER

AIRMASS EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEKEND

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IN THIS SOLUTION

PLAYING OUT CONSIDERING THAT EXTENDED MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THAT THE POLAR VORTEX REMAINS

OVER EASTERN CANADA. BOTH 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF/OP GFS TODAY SHOWING

850MB TEMPS TO NEAR -20C BY NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.

 

IWX:

 

TEMPS GENERALLY NR SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH THE PD BFR FALLING OFF

THE TABLE BY DY9 AND BEYOND. IN FACT ECMWF/GFS TAKEN AT FACE VALUE

WOULD SUGGEST TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS EARLY NXT

WEEK W/LOWS WELL BLO ZERO AND READILY BOUGHT INTO GIVEN COMPOSITE

AO/NAO TELECONNECTION FCSTS TURNING STRONGLY NEGATIVE NXT WEEK.

Most NWS forecasts are very vague with the end of their 7-day forecasts as is.....much less something that is just beyond their 7-day forecast, which would be this cold snap. So its interesting to see them discuss it (as did BUF the other day). The GFS advertised the cold much too soon, gee, never saw that happen before. SSW events have a 1-3 week lag time before their effects on sensible weather is felt. Bottom line...all the models show cold that is far beyond "slightly below normal", as some are implying, next week...so if indeed it turns out to be a seasonable or just slightly below normal cold snap this will be a major, major bust by all models, LR forecasters, and atmospheric indicies alike.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

you're not say'n JB ain't smart are ya?

 

 

I wouldn't say that.... JB is just not one to over hype...............

He has dubbed this upcoming cold period "coldmageddon". I laughed out loud when I saw that. Soon he'll coreect himself and say that what he is actually forecasting is not, in actual fact, a january 1994 type outbreak but, rather, a February 1934 type outbreak...for February of course.

[QVectorman]

QV.

Got any early thoughts on Feb? Maybe a sneak peak.

Well I will say the second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to have picked up speed so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window. That may...may...may... work out better for us because it appears the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. You can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21. As a result maybe we can get a better mechanism (shortwave) for the 24-27 cold blast say coming up from the gulf and pulling down more cold air and running into/utilizing the cold air in place from the 20/21 clipper to become a decent snow storm instead of just being another fairly dry clipper coming down from CA to usher in the arctic air for the 24-27 time frame.

On to your question haha. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of -6 to -14C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the GLKS that produce near normal conditions or are we talking -10 to -20C so below normal or ...God for bid like 0 to -6C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the GLKS down below this week's level of -6 to -14C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving.

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Well I will say the second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to have picked up speed so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window. That may...may...may... work out better for us because it appears the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. You can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21. As a result maybe we can get a better mechanism (shortwave) for the 24-27 cold blast say coming up from the gulf and pulling down more cold air and running into/utilizing the cold air in place from the 20/21 clipper to become a decent snow storm instead of just being another fairly dry clipper coming down from CA to usher in the arctic air for the 24-27 time frame.

On to your question haha. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10.

Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of -6 to -14C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the GLKS that produce near normal conditions or are we talking -10 to -20C so below normal or ...God for bid like 0 to -6C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the GLKS down below this week's level of -6 to -14C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving.

Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4.

So, are you still seeing severe cold next week in places like Michigan, Ontario and western New York?

[QVectorman]

Ya, I try not to change my forecast. So if I didn't amend it like I did for the Jan 10-13 it's still the same  And I covered next week arctic air in the first paragraph...i think Jan 24-27. He just asked about Feb. and I didn't want to rehash Jan. again I think people might get sick of hear it, lol. So people can just go back through my old posts to look at the forecast and 850 temp forecast from a few weeks ago for Jan 15-19 and Jan 20-24. 

 

PS thanks for the kind words everyone. Glad to be part of your group and great discussion.

[TugHillMatt]

He has dubbed this upcoming cold period "coldmageddon". I laughed out loud when I saw that. Soon he'll coreect himself and say that what he is actually forecasting is not, in actual fact, a january 1994 type outbreak but, rather, a February 1934 type outbreak...for February of course.

Lol. Actually, he was referring to the "colds" going around...

[TugHillMatt]

I will give this winter some credit, it has the most boring patterns known to man no matter what the setup is. I can't believe it is the same winter that went snow crazy for 5 days in late December........

 

Alek lol.

June 2011 through January 2013 has been one big snooze fest, atleast in southwest Michigan.

[Jonger]

Winter looks very LOCKED in over the forseeable future.... The cold isn't that far out now..

 

This will be the coldest period for a number of years... Not 1994, but pretty cold.

[hawkeye_wx]

Even if the polar vortex plunges south into the region we can only get so cold with no snow cover.  In 2009 we had 17 inches of powder during the second week of January.  On the 15th we cratered to -29F, which set a new all-time record.  The high temp that day was -12F.