Ajdos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Cold keeps getting pushed back. Thats odd Not odd, it's annoying as hell.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Not odd, it's annoying as hell.... I know it's a joke. It's never coming down LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I know it's a joke. It's never coming down LOL Watch me make it come down...just watch...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This is what happens with no block. NAO is also going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS showing some nice WAA across WI/IA/MN/IL next Friday. Could be near 40 sfc temps. GFS prog for the 18th back on the 2nd of January. Not so much warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS showing some nice WAA across WI/IA/MN/IL next Friday. Could be near 40 sfc temps. GFS prog for the 18th back on the 2nd of January. Not so much warmth dumb.jpg Check out my post above... That cold formed as predicted, just without any block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z GFS showing some nice WAA across WI/IA/MN/IL next Friday. Could be near 40 sfc temps. GFS prog for the 18th back on the 2nd of January. Not so much warmth dumb.jpg Yep, the elusive cool down keeps getting pushed further and further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Looks like Jan will finish with a similar departure as Dec. This winter is much worse that last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Check out my post above... That cold formed as predicted, just without any block. Yeah, -NAO would definitely help locking the cold air in. Either that, or +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yep, the elusive cool down keeps getting pushed further and further back. Yep. Keep kicking the can down the road. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/21/canaib.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Yeah, -NAO would definitely help locking the cold air in. Either that, or +PNA. The PNA is most likely the root of this entire winter.... With a more typical PNA we probably would have had our 1994 cold, but not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The Pacific ocean is just letting us know that we're just not that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The jury is still out on whether it happens, but you have a high pressure blocking the east now.... It probably won't happen, but we can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Apparently DVN bought into the cold in the long range. LURKING JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF CURRENT LONG TERM IS TRANSITION TOSIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR... AS HUDSON BAY VORTEX DIVES SOUTHWARDTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOOKS TO DISLODGE CHUNK OF ARCTICAIR SENDING IT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION BY MON JAN 21ST /MARTINLUTHER KING DAY/. 00Z GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENTON THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH MAGNITUDE OFCOLD AIR WITH GFS ADVERTISING 850 MB TEMPS OF -20 TO -25C ON MON WHILEECMWF EVEN MORE BRUTAL AT -30C TO -33C BY 00Z TUE. REGARDLESS...UNLESS SOMETHING DRASTICALLY CHANGES WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTREMELYCOLD PERIOD AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEK OF JAN 21-25TH... WITH THEMAGNITUDE DIFFERENCE IN MODELS GENERALLY EQUATING TO WHETHER OR NOTIT WILL BE RECORD BREAKING COLD. IF MEMORY SERVES CORRECT THE LASTTIME WE`VE SEEN ANYTHING AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS WAS JAN `09WHEN THE MORNING OF JAN 16TH SEVERAL SITES TIED OR BROKE ALL TIMEJAN RECORD LOWS... WITH LOWS THAT MORNING DROPPING TO AROUND -30F INSOME AREAS. LOOKING AT THE 12Z/16TH 850 MB TEMPS THEY WERE AROUND-20C OR A LITTLE COLDER. THE KEY WAS MUCH OF THE REGION WAS SITTINGON 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COVER AFTER A COUPLE OF HEAVY SNOW EVENTSJUST DAYS APART AND WITHIN A WEEK PRIOR TO THE 16TH. SO... UNLESSSOMETHING DRAMATICALLY AND TERRIBLY UNFORESEEN OCCURS WITHOUT THE DEEPSNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEEING ANY RECORD COLD POTENTIAL... THATIS... UNLESS THE HI-RES ECMWF WERE TO MAINTAIN 850 MB TEMPS OF -30CTO -33C INTO TUE MORNING. THESE 850 MB TEMPS FROM ECMWF IN JUST THEPRESENCE OF WEAK SFC RIDGING... LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIESWOULD SUPPORT LOWS NEAR TO ROUGHLY 3 DEGS BELOW THE PROGGED 850 MBTEMPS... OR GENERALLY NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS OF AROUND -20F TO -27F.MCCLURE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 its so easy of late to be record or dam near record warm all effin yr.. tough stretch for us icepu$$ies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Apparently DVN bought into the cold in the long range. IWX and IND also mention it. IND: TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...BUT A MUCHMORE FRIGID AIRMASS IS PROGGED FOR THE REGION BEYOND THE LONGTERM PERIOD. IWX: MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POLAR AIRMASS ATTEMPTING TO DIVE INTOTHE EASTERN US NEXT WEEK. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVEWITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -26 C. TRANSLATION TO WHAT IT WOULDFEEL LIKE WOULD BE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ANDLOWS POSSIBLY BELOW ZERO. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVER THE PASTCOUPLE OF DAYS THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD AIR HAS SLOWED BUTREGARDLESS IT DOES POINT TOWARDS A SHARP ARRIVAL AT SOME POINT INTHE 10 TO 14 DAY PERIOD. I'll believe when I see it inside 120. EDIT: Man, the board has been messed up for the past week as witnessed below. It appears that cyclone has lot of nothing to say and I can't delete it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 It looks like this cold outbreak is going to be a fail, or at least nowhere near as cold as we were expecting. If I'm lucky, I might see a high in the low 20s. Absolutely incredible backtracking byh the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 wtf happened??? paging Historic Arctic Outbreak, please pick up the white phone..... the second kick in the nuts comes when you think, "well, at least our snow chances might improve if it's not suppressively cold..." think again, still not a single storm anywhere thru next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 lol arctic outbreak cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Buckeye time to update the 2012-2013 fail too. This winter would have to be soo backsided to make it normal, times a tickin and its not lookin good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wow... can't even get a decent cold shot. Well, I just may throw in the towel. It's just one of those winters that will be made memorable by the lack of everything: Snow, cold, etc. Well, we still have February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Maybe I'm missing something but it still looks like a decent cold shot in the longer range. The question is more about whether it's something extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Buckeye time to update the 2012-2013 fail too. This winter would have to be soo backsided to make it normal, times a tickin and its not lookin good . If you are referring to snowfall, maybe in Chicago or Muskegon, but not in Detroit or Windsor. We are only 4" below normal to date and using the longterm normals closer to 2" below normal to date. Obviously with each calendar day the deficit grows, but then again any snowstorm makes up a lot of ground in one day (for statistical purposes the average monthly snowfall is just divided into the number of days that month so the average daily snowfall is that number). And snowcover is right at normal. Its funny....and Ive said it before...no matter HOW much or how often it snows here you get complaints. Our typical nickel and dime snowfall, which is constantly belittled from some here, has gone missing this year. Rather, to get close to our snowfall instead of a steady stream of nickel and diming we had a 5-day "thump" of snow with hardly any snowfall on either side of that 5-day spell. And now THAT draws whining as being "1 week of winter". Also...if snow melts quickly it is "stat padding" and if it stays on the ground long it "gets old" and is boring. We can argue who is optimistic and pessimistic, we all have different opinions on what part of snow is most important to us, but one thing is certain - there is absolutely, positively NO formula that will EVER satisfy those in our region. None. As for winter temp, it would take a COLD February to offset the warm December, so i dont think a colder-than-normal winter mean is in the offing, but i also have to LOL at assertions January will be as above normal as December. For that to happen, every model and indice would have to bust harder than ever before from here on out. At Detroit, we are at +5F on January as the torch is over. How much cold comes down is in the air but no way is a torch incoming, and Decembers departure was +5.8F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Maybe I'm missing something but it still looks like a decent cold shot in the longer range. The question is more about whether it's something extreme. You arent missing anything. This is typical amwx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wish I could lock in the 12z Euro for next monday. A moist advisory-type snow clipper (temps in the 20s) ushering in an arctic front that sees temperartures drop to 0F or below Monday night. What a classic way to enter the dead of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 End of gfs gets us to almost feb... This garbage winter we'll be over before we know it and we can start tracking the heat waves that no doubt wont disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wish I could lock in the 12z Euro for next monday. A moist advisory-type snow clipper (temps in the 20s) ushering in an arctic front that sees temperartures drop to 0F or below Monday night. What a classic way to enter the dead of winter. I was just about to post asking if anyone has seen the latest Euro. From your description, it sounds like it looks good, meaning my spirits have been raised. Honestly, this really is a bi-polar hobby. Happy with one run, then despondent after another. May as well enjoy the high for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 boring nw flow with a sprinkle of stat padding garbage...Yuck for this side of the lake - that's worse than what we've had by far the first half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I was just about to post asking if anyone has seen the latest Euro. From your description, it sounds like it looks good, meaning my spirits have been raised. Honestly, this really is a bi-polar hobby. Happy with one run, then despondent after another. May as well enjoy the high for the next few hours. Your spirits have been raised off of 1 EURO run? I am at the point where I have to see it falling to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Can't wait for summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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