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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


IWXwx

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The GFS would be an interesting test of how cold it could get with bare or nearly bare ground.

There are several clippers moving through that will whiten up Michigan and northern Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin... So those places will have snow. The lake belts as well.... But lower Indy and those other states could see frost going deep in the soil.

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There are several clippers moving through that will whiten up Michigan and northern Indiana, Ohio, Wisconsin... So those places will have snow. The lake belts as well.... But lower Indy and those other states could see frost going deep in the soil.

Yeah I was mainly talking about non lake belts.

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Definitely interesting, but the GFS indicated very cold air for the time period starting tomorrow a week or so ago. Hard to get excited about this given it's so far out. Lack of snow cover over much of our region would probably make it less impressive as well.

I was just going to post that. Once again we have fantasy cold snaps getting pushed back to 240hrs with almost every run. We just can't seem to lock this "extreme" cold in under 130hrs.

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Yeah I was mainly talking about non lake belts.

Not only that, but the lakes would certainly modify the airmass, so it would be a situation where Cinci would be colder than Detroit, verbatim. And, in a pattern like that with clippers riding through the lakes, the latter would be snow covered but the areas where the airmass wouldn't be modified by the lakes would probably be pretty bare. It would still be cold though.

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Dang that run is cold! :shiver:

 

Looks like some clippers coming to cover the subforum real estate over pretty good before then.

 

Edit: The 3rd week of January is like prime time for the coldest outbreak's to occur. So if there is enough snow down, it could be getting mightly cold around here!

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Cold keeps getting pushed back on the long range. 

 

3 days Later: "Cold keeps getting pushed back on the long range"

 

6 days Later: "Cold keeps getting pushed back on the long range"

 

12 days Later:"Cold keeps getting pushed back on the long range"

 

 

 


 

REST OF THE FORECAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE BIG QUESTION...WHEN TO BRING IN THE ARCTIC AIR. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE...AS THEY USUALLY STRUGGLE WITH ENERGY AND AIRMASSES THAT ORIGINATE FROM THE DATA-POOR CANADIAN ARCTIC. THE GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM BRINGING IN THE DEEP FREEZE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AND MEX GUIDANCE NOW KEEPS TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE CLIMO ALL WEEK. THE ECMWF STILL FEATURES A GLANCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THURSDAY. FOR NOW...HAVE MODERATED LATE-WEEK TEMPS JUST A SMIDGE.

NWS Gaylord

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The GFS still wants to bring the coldest air since 1994 to the continental US... If the future would even catch up to the present.

I'm cautiously optimistic this could happen. I just need to see it predicted to happen within 200 hours. Like I said, the cold shot that was originally supposed to be quite intense around the 17-19th no longer looks very impressive. The GFS, for one thing, doesn't seem to know whether to bring the front through on the 16th or 17th.

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