Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[A-L-E-K]

punt until 2014

[BowMeHunter]

Time to start digging out the beach wear and wax the chest.   Rodger Smiths massive record breaking warmth incoming soon.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Time to start digging out the beach wear and wax the chest.   Rodger Smiths massive record breaking warmth incoming soon.

The stars would seem to be in alignment for such an event.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Serious zzz the next 7 days. Just to keep you guys on your heels, P003 & P004:

 

I was kind of hoping a Miller A storm would develop for next weekend helping us add to our growing snowpack.

[snowstormcanuck]

I was kind of hoping a Miller A storm would develop for next weekend helping us add to our growing snowpack.

 

Not too many Miller-A storms are going to take a track far enough west to give us flurries, let alone measurable snow.

[Stebo]

Serious zzz the next 7 days. Just to keep you guys on your heels, P003 & P004:

 

Interesting that the OP is about the only one that doesn't have a system and few are West of the Appalachians.

[Harry]

I was kind of hoping a Miller A storm would develop for next weekend helping us add to our growing snowpack.

 

Go hope for that in one of the I95 forums.   Fook a Miller A storm. I95/New England has seen enough since 09-10 to last several decades.

 

But seriously they do very little for most in this region.  Typically the apps and or I95 make out from them. Miller B storms are the ones that provide any snow in this region but it is usually nothing prolific out this way.

[Powerball]

Well, at least some remain optimistic.

 

Potential is there, but thus far actual realization seems slim. Would strongly prefer to see less crap across SE Canada.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Go hope for that in one of the I95 forums.   Fook a Miller A storm. I95/New England has seen enough since 09-10 to last several decades.

 

But seriously they do very little for most in this region.  Typically the apps and or I95 make out from them. Miller B storms are the ones that provide any snow in this region but it is usually nothing prolific out this way.

I'll rephrase. Let's all hope for an apps runner.

 

Seriously though, I doubt we've seen our last snowstorm of the season.

[OHweather]

Mid-range thoughts 2/9/13

 

A bit scattered brained right now, but, here goes:

 

We have a few items of interest to track over the next couple of weeks…even if they don’t produce, those who don’t mind tracking potential storms should at least have something to keep an eye on.

 

 

Convection persists near/east of the dateline…with another MJO pulse currently over the eastern Indian Ocean and propagating east. This supports a continued active sub-tropical jet and ridging off the west coast as convection festers near and east of the dateline.

 

 

An increase in global mountain torque in the middle of February collaborated nicely with a favorable orbit of the GWO through the Nino like phases along with a propagation of the MJO to east of the dateline. Mountain torque appears to be increasing again, which may signify that the GWO is not going to head as far into Nina like octants as it was earlier in the winter.

 

 

Regardless, with a renewed MJO pulse heading out of the Indian Ocean over the coming day, the Pacific should be in favorable phases for cold across the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast into the last week of February, with some disagreement on whether or not the MJO will propagate into more unfavorable phases or perhaps head into the COD which is more neutral.

 

Given the GWO likely will not head into more Nina-Like phases, or at least the possibility of that discussed above, a more GFS like evolution may be reasonable. The ECM has been too aggressive in trying to bring the MJO into phase 4 over the past week plus, as a slower evolution verified with the MJO slowing down in phase 1 recently. Either way, the Pacific should be neutral if not favorable for a +PNA, active STJ, normal to below normal temps across the region for at least the next 10-14 days.

 

 

Across the high latitudes the pattern isn’t particularly blocky at this time…although ridging is trying to nose into Alaska and an east based –NAO is attempting to develop…although with an upper low over Greenland, the east based –NAO won’t be much help.

 

 

The GFS ensembles however are suggesting a significant lowering of the AO beginning late this week, with the NAO and PNA remaining near neutral. This could help get deeper cold into the CONUS. When looking, after a stratospheric warming peaking in middle January at 10mb at similar temperatures at that level to what we saw this year, as I have posted below, the following February tended to feature, on average, a –NAO and neutral to weakly –AO…I have posted this image a couple of times but will post it again:

 

 

This year it appears as though the –NAO may be a bit harder to come by than the –AO…with the GFS and Euro ensembles showing ridging extending from near the Aleutians north towards the pole developing near mid-month:

 

 

This appears to be in response to the aforementioned MJO pulse currently over the Indian Ocean beginning to propagate east over the next week…as has been discussed extensively, especially earlier in the winter, the sub-tropical ridging is generally stronger to the north of the convection thanks to the heat the convection releases…this ridging then generally will force a tighter height gradient to its north and stronger jet as well…east of where this jet breaks, heights tend to rise thanks to storms being more common near where the jet breaks thanks to increased divergence aloft…the GFS at 180 hours shows a favorable jet streak over the western Pacific for heights to rise over the Aleutians as we head into next weekend, which jives well with convection moving out of the Indian Ocean as we saw earlier in the winter:

 

 

With a weaker (essentially non-existent) stratospheric vortex thanks to the warming we saw in January, the tropics will likely be able to coax where high-latitude blocking sets up…if the MJO pulse attempts to propagate east into the far western Pacific this week as it appears poised to do, we should be able to get ridging from the Aleutians into the very high latitudes, keeping the tropospheric vortex split and allowing for a high-amplitude pattern to persist into late February.

 

With an active STJ and likely high-amplitude pattern, storms are likely…initially cutting well northwest of the region over the next couple of days with no PNA, AO, or NAO help at this time to keep this upcoming high-plains blizzard south…and eventually farther east…and as storms cut towards southeastern Canada heights are bound to eventually rise in the Greenland vicinity…so I’d expect the NAO to try to go negative as early as the end of this week…although no guidance strongly supports this yet so it will be interesting to watch.

 

There are a couple of storm threats over the next week…

 

 

The first is Wednesday-Thursday near the Ohio River as energy ejects out of the western US along a baroclinic zone. Thanks to no blocking really have developed yet, this system would need a good phase (such as what we saw yesterday over New England) to become anything significant. The models were initially dropping a polar branch shortwave rather far south out ahead of the ejecting energy into the Great Lakes and suppressing the southern energy way out of the picture…but recently have backed off the amplification of the northern shortwave somewhat.

 

Despite still running a bit ahead of the ejecting STJ energy, the shortwave no long is quite as suppressive…opening the door for a swath of light snow across Kentucky and southern IN/OH Wednesday into Wednesday night…which I did mention was possible in my previous write up a few days ago. This still looks on but again thanks to a rather zonal pattern for now across N. America a high amplitude solution remains highly unlikely, hence just a swath of snow across the far southern portion of the sub-forum is the best we can hope for.

 

 

The next storm threat is somewhere around Saturday the 16^th…back in my last post I flagged this as a potentially much more significant storm…and the potential does remain.

 

The models re-develop some western US ridging, which seems reasonable thanks to the convection that has been persisting east of the dateline…and also begin to lower the NAO, which as I mentioned above, seems reasonable. This suggests a more amplified pattern than what will be occurring in the mid-week timeframe. The GFS ensembles have been consistent for amplifying a trough focused over the Great Lakes significantly to near the Gulf Coast next weekend for run after run after run it seems like…initially the ECM ensembles…out when this was in the day 10-11 timefame…showed much less western US ridging in this timeframe and thus a bit less of an amplified trough over the Great Lakes/OV/southeast…although have gradually come on board with the idea of a more amplified pattern developing:

 

 

This increases confidence in a high-amplitude trough developing next weekend. With continued hints at an active STJ off of the California coast in this timeframe…a well-timed phase would almost certainly support a significant low pressure somewhere over the eastern third of the US.

 

 

A glimpse at some of the 18z individual GFS ensembles members in this timeframe shows that a majority of the members seem to have a storm…a couple as far west as the eastern lakes. The developing ridging over the western US and split tropospheric PV supports a high amplitude pattern, and the convection east of the dateline will continue to support an active STJ…the ingredients are certainly there for a big storm next weekend.

 

 

The Euro ensembles do eventually show a decent area of low pressure in the means…although don’t do it until it is well east of the region.

 

With the NAO only weakly negative in this timeframe…and right now no real 50/50 being modeled either (although, if the mid-week system defies expectations and bombs off the east coast, that may change) there certainly will be room for a storm to cut towards the eastern lakes…although with western US ridging I doubt it would track any farther west than say Cleveland. However, right now neither set of ensemble means (GFS/ECM) show the trough taking on a neutral tilt until it gets close to the Apps and don’t show it taking on a negative tilt until east of the Apps…that’s obviously too far east for anything meaningful in our region.  

 

So, it would likely take a decent phase near the western Gulf coast between the deepening trough and any STJ energy riding by for a strong primary low to track west of the Apps and threaten the eastern portions of this sub-forum with potentially heavy snow. Right now the consensus is against this and it is much too early to look at where two pieces of energy may phase, but with the weakly –NAO and no real 50/50 low in place late this week I have a feeling we’ll continue to see a western solution occasionally pop up on the models before they come into better consensus…either way…in a few days.

 

 

Behind this potential storm, I expect the NAO to remain somewhat negative…if this storm ends up bombing it may help solidify a more true –NAO after next weekend. However, what happens in the Pacific appears to be key…

 

If the MJO currently over the Indian Ocean continues to propagate, it may cause the PNA to fluctuate however would likely spread east quickly enough to keep a large GOA vortex at bay…if the MJO currently over the Indian Ocean struggles and the convection currently near the dateline fades, we may see more of a persistent GOA low develop. The MJO has had a tendency to propagate into the central Pacific over the past few weeks…and it appears as though the mountain torque may stop the GWO from going into more negative/Nina like octants…so for now I’m going to favor some potential variability the last week to 10 days of February (likely near normal temps) across the region with a potential to colder weather near the beginning of March…with more potential storm chances…although right now this forecast is changeable based on how the Pacific decides to behave.

[Minnesota Meso]

I must be the only one who actually thinks there is a potential for a couple good systems down the road. The progressive Pacific Jet that Angrysummons is downplaying is actually the catalyst for the potential of big systems, as it keeps driving energy right into the Western part of the USA. Look at how things have been, ultra active with clippers, then a big system hitting most North of 80, another system hitting the plains over the weekend. WIth 2 more on the maps after that one for the South and one that runs up the East side of the Appalachians. If you expect those later systems to remain as they stand right now, I have a bridge to sell you. The fact of the matter is with every piece of energy diving into the Western part of the US all it takes is one good phase with the Arctic jet to create an explosive system.

 

Plus being close to the Wyandotte Jackpot Zone, I can't write off any potential as the magnet has been extremely strong as of late.

 

 

I haven't read the detail post above, but I saw this post from you before I went to work today, and since then I have been a bit busy with our progged storm... But I have been beating the drum on this pattern developing over this sub forum for the last 20 days or so, it is going to get active here....I wished I would have started a thread about guessing the snowfall at MSP with this system....it's been very difficult to say the least.

[Geos]

Good February writeup OHweather.

 

With regard to the teleconnections, we've seen them not work out so well these last two winter and part of that reason is the MJO and the Pacific pattern. Somewhat this winter the MJO has proved useful, but it's been a guessing game at times with the Pacific not cooperating. I think your onto something for an active next weekend. I would think we weak blocking a storm will cut up into the subforum or at least a storm that heads west to east through here (like the system that just went by).

 

Good thing now is that the QBO is only -6 and that indicates a weakened Pacific Jet from earlier like in November and December.

 

6-10 days look to be chilly over most of the subforum according the CPC.

 

[Stebo]

Looks like the Northern and Southern Stream are going to remain unphased for the next system around 120hr range, which means we will be experiencing a clipper instead, could be a decent one too for the Lakes and would help reenergize the LES for those downwind of the Lakes.

[Geos]

On the dry side for the Clipper, but 850's look plenty cold for some high ratio snow.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Im all for another clipper parade...I actually am growing confident we see an ABOVE normal snow season here at DTW. But what Im also starting to get hungry for is the bomb. Models are all over the place but lots of hints that an active period some were talking about may in fact be on tap in the coming weeks. Some interesting scenarios shown on different op and ensemble members during various timeframes. Probably/hopefully a good early sign

[OHweather]

Good February writeup OHweather.

 

With regard to the teleconnections, we've seen them not work out so well these last two winter and part of that reason is the MJO and the Pacific pattern. Somewhat this winter the MJO has proved useful, but it's been a guessing game at times with the Pacific not cooperating. I think your onto something for an active next weekend. I would think we weak blocking a storm will cut up into the subforum or at least a storm that heads west to east through here (like the system that just went by).

 

Good thing now is that the QBO is only -6 and that indicates a weakened Pacific Jet from earlier like in November and December.

 

6-10 days look to be chilly over most of the subforum according the CPC.

Thanks!

 

I think the MJO has proved useful, however the MJO forecasts on all fronts have been very inconsistent at times.

 

There is certainly potential next weekend...look at the 12z Canadian...but the general trend has been for the models to not find two shortwaves to phase before the trough is almost directly over our heads, which means any storm would likely be too far east for this subforum. The potential is there however it probably won't be realized...although like I said I would give it a few days before completely punting the bomb potential next weekend until we get a better idea of where any shortwaves in both streams will be tracking, and whether or not there is any chance for some phasing. It's 3rd down and about 10 right now though. 

 

Either way it will get cold and there will probably be at least some clippers/LES to track as Stebo mentioned above.

[IWXwx]

Thanks!

 

I think the MJO has proved useful, however the MJO forecasts on all fronts have been very inconsistent at times.

 

There is certainly potential next weekend...look at the 12z Canadian...but the general trend has been for the models to not find two shortwaves to phase before the trough is almost directly over our heads, which means any storm would likely be too far east for this subforum. The potential is there however it probably won't be realized...although like I said I would give it a few days before completely punting the bomb potential next weekend until we get a better idea of where any shortwaves in both streams will be tracking, and whether or not there is any chance for some phasing. It's 3rd down and about 10 right now though. 

 

Either way it will get cold and there will probably be at least some clippers/LES to track as Stebo mentioned above.

This appears to be the consensus and is probably most likely to happen. I hope their wrong though. The cold, clipperish outcome looks more plausible. More of the same.

[IWXwx]

Not really a clipper pattern. This type of ull is transitory.

You thinking it's going to scoot on out of here?

[Harry]

This appears to be the consensus and is probably most likely to happen. I hope their wrong though. The cold, clipperish outcome looks more plausible. More of the same.

 

Difference this go around though is a more active southern jet. Thus more chances for something to connect and do the deed. STILL that is not saying much either. We still do need it all to come together just right.

 

Personally if we cannot do it i would rather end winter right now vs seeing another bomb crawl up the east coast. Screw that. As weathafella said about this region a few weeks back i say the same about them and thus fook them.

[Harry]

Nope, but I think the GFS/GGEM are over amping the cliipper. That doesn't mean a phase, with the stj, but it is very interesting. The Euro is pretty different and shows a weak wave over Jersey at then a semi-phased storm at inland eastern canada. 

 

This trough complex has a ton of potential. Probably won't work and we will be on to the next one. But that seems to be the pattern. Clippers bringing polar/arctic fronts and active STJ readily there for the phase.

 

Till very recently though the STJ has not been there too much. That has been discussed by many. Still having it alot more active means squat as well. Still need it all to connect. It is the best shot we have had in a number of years but again that means diddly. It would be such a shame to waste all the potential. Eventually something has to give for this area. Just a matter of when and thus the hard part.

[Harry]

One problem for later in the week is the system moving across the south. That either needs to slow down big time ( allow northern energy to catch up ), or race off weaker and stay like that to give ample enough time for the flow to back ahead of the northern energy so something else can get going and come up and pay a visit with the northern energy in this region. GEM has the faster southern wave idea.

[snowstormcanuck]

Im all for another clipper parade...I actually am growing confident we see an ABOVE normal snow season here at DTW. But what Im also starting to get hungry for is the bomb. Models are all over the place but lots of hints that an active period some were talking about may in fact be on tap in the coming weeks. Some interesting scenarios shown on different op and ensemble members during various timeframes. Probably/hopefully a good early sign

 

EURO comes close to an Apps runner at 144-168 but everything gets going too late and is too far east.

[Harry]

EURO comes close to an Apps runner at 144-168 but everything gets going too late and is too far east.

 

Which still gives us plenty of time thankfully. See how it looks inside of 120hrs. If there is to be a bomb in this region the models *should* have it inside of 120hrs. Thats the time frame i like to use anyways.

 

I kinda like that the models are not showing the bomb just yet for us. How many times has that happened and someone jump on a storm threat thread and it basically fail or end up close to a nothing event beyond 120hrs?

[snowstormcanuck]

Which still gives us plenty of time thankfully. See how it looks inside of 120hrs. If there is to be a bomb in this region the models *should* have it inside of 120hrs. Thats the time frame i like to use anyways.

 

I kinda like that the models are not showing the bomb just yet for us. How many times has that happened and someone jump on a storm threat thread and it basically fail or end up close to a nothing event beyond 120hrs?

 

I like the positioning of the W NOAM ridge on both the GFS and EURO. It seems like it's far enough west to allow a piece of energy diving out of the Canadian Prairies ample room to dig and build a bit of a corresponding SE ridge. That D3-4 crap across the TN valley kinda gums up the works like you pointed out.

 

EURO ensembles hinting at a more westerly solution?

[Harry Perry]

Definitely starting to get some hope for an active period... Wouldn't that be nice? A BOMB similar to February 2011, but stronger?

Hopefully our shot is on deck, we're over-due and comically enough, a storm system that could bring us nearly the amount of snow we've had year-to-date, in one sitting..... Bring it on!

[Harry]

I like the positioning of the W NOAM ridge on both the GFS and EURO. It seems like it's far enough west to allow a piece of energy diving out of the Canadian Prairies ample room to dig and build a bit of a corresponding SE ridge. That D3-4 crap across the TN valley kinda gums up the works like you pointed out.

 

EURO ensembles hinting at a more westerly solution?

 

They have been scattered.

[Harry]

Definitely starting to get some hope for an active period... Wouldn't that be nice? A BOMB similar to February 2011, but stronger? Hopefully our shot is on deck, we're over-due and comically enough, a storm system that could bring us nearly the amount of snow we've had year-to-date, in one sitting..... Bring it on!

 

Would also need a bit further east/se.

 

Doubt we could get nearly 35" in one storm. Jan 67 was the closest with 28/31" across this area and that had tons upon tons of juice to work with.

[OHweather]

 

The ECM ensemble mean was very close to getting the trough negative tilt before reaching the Apps, which is what we would need to get a primary low to track likely into the eastern OV and threaten the upper Ohio Valley and lower/eastern Great Lakes. I'd lean towards the east coast storm being more likely but certainly can not punt this yet, there is still a longg time for the models to adjust the timing of individual shortwaves and figure out when two may phase.

[Snowstorms]

I think over the next few days were going to see alot of model discrepancy about the storm later next week into the following week, The pattern is quite unpredictable but the STJ is amplified and the Gulf is ample for some moisture. 

 

GFS has been known to be quite progressive but i'm not putting any faith into anything yet. There will be alot of flip-flopping over the next few days but the pattern is ripe for a storm to form. Phasing, timing are again the main issues, then the tracking. 

 

If we can get a Weak SE Ridge this could bode well for us. The 12z GGEM looked sweet haha. 

[TimChgo9]

I am so glad there are folks here that can interpret this stuff...  I don't see anything on the latest GFS that shows any kind of storm....but, then, that doesn't necessarily mean anything.  I was looking at todays 12z run. 

 

There is another system on the 18th, that, again, N IL, S WI, and NW IN are in the warm sector for, and then a little clipper on the 22nd, or thereabouts, that seems to be a tad miserly with the QPF...  Parts of N MI get the LES thing going again.  At this point in the season, around here anyway, I think the best we can hope for is another couple of inches before Spring gets here. THe only bright thing is at least the temperatures will be at or slightly below seasonal norms.