TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Yeah I posted that before I read his posts. I should amend it some, as I believe OHweather is also bold on the prospects going forward. I was more or less being tongue-in-cheek with respect to some of the Debbie Downers around here. Seriously some people are wet blankets for no reason except for some sort of self appeasement. Dude, you guys have no idea what is going on in people's lives. Sure, some are just negative, but perhaps the negativity is a projection of other stuff going on? Sarcastic responses won't change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Dude, you guys have no idea what is going on in people's lives. Sure, some are just negative, but perhaps the negativity is a projection of other stuff going on? Sarcastic responses won't change that. Forum rule # 6. Don't inject or wear your feelings in your posts, because they will get hurt. This is a weather forum, not a self help board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Dude, you guys have no idea what is going on in people's lives. Sure, some are just negative, but perhaps the negativity is a projection of other stuff going on? Sarcastic responses won't change that.I post with objectivity, I don't need naysayers who have zero reasoning behind their naysaying counterdicting the objective posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Maybe we can do 1978 again, only this time in reverse. New England got theirs first this time, then 11 days later... Ideally the pattern is quite active in both jets though split right now, all it takes is one phase to explode out a storm. If there was ever a time for something huge to happen this next couple of weeks would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's weather, people. Just weather. Have some fun with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I like the pattern were entertaining in defiantly worth watching. Someone will get something special. Probably OH valley/E.GL if I had a gun to my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Forum rule # 6. Don't inject or wear your feelings in your posts, because they will get hurt. This is a weather forum, not a self help board. Rules aren't exactly real life. You can't use rules to control life issues. Yeah, this is a weather board, but that doesn't mean life does not happen on here. Some on here just need to have a bit more compassion on where others are coming from. If you don't know how to do that, Geos and dmc are great positive examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I post with objectivity, I don't need naysayers who have zero reasoning behind their naysaying counterdicting the objective posts. I know what personality type you are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ideally the pattern is quite active in both jets though split right now, all it takes is one phase to explode out a storm. If there was ever a time for something huge to happen this next couple of weeks would be it. Agreed! This storm we just had didn't really look too impressive at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 It's weather, people. Just weather. Have some fun with it. I am having fun, I just wish I could share with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Ideally the pattern is quite active in both jets though split right now, all it takes is one phase to explode out a storm. If there was ever a time for something huge to happen this next couple of weeks would be it. The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting no doubt. With the MJO flirting around phases 7-8-1 over the past few weeks, this had led to some development of Kelvin Waves, typical El Nino MJO phases, so with that being said, the next 2-3 weeks will feature an active Subtropical jet and Polar Jet. It's going to be quite the battle on the Models lol. The models also show a Weak SE ridge popping up at times, so again. I think many have a chance at seeing something decent before the month ends. Whats your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I agree with blackrock. In some cases, this is our only place to vent because the general public does not generally agree or want to hear us complain about a lack of snow. It is sometimes healthy to vent, and as long as it's not hurting other people's feelings, posters here should not be so strict to eliminate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks will be quite interesting no doubt. With the MJO flirting around phases 7-8-1 over the past few weeks, this had led to some development of Kelvin Waves, typical El Nino MJO phases, so with that being said, the next 2-3 weeks will feature an active Subtropical jet and Polar Jet. It's going to be quite the battle on the Models lol. The models also show a Weak SE ridge popping up at times, so again. I think many have a chance at seeing something decent before the month ends. Whats your thoughts? I agree with this, the prospect of a SE ridge would help promote stuff coming up this way and would also increase the potential of severe weather for the Mid South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I agree with blackrock. In some cases, this is our only place to vent because the general public does not generally agree or want to hear us complain about a lack of snow. It is sometimes healthy to vent, and as long as it's not hurting other people's feelings, posters here should not be so strict to eliminate it. This isn't the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I agree with this, the prospect of a SE ridge would help promote stuff coming up this way and would also increase the potential of severe weather for the Mid South. Its an oblique pattern. Sort of a La Nina gradient type with an active STJ. If we can maintain the cold anomalies across the West and warmer anomalies across the South in part of the SE Ridge we can get fairly large gradient type storms forming. Its an active pattern from now through Feb 28. The GFS hints something colossal next weekend lol. With a -AO and neutral to slightly negative -NAO that should maintain the cold anomalies. Whats your thought on the storm the GFS depicts in the short-medium range (90-120 hours). The ECMWF how ever suppresses it and instead bringers a weaker lower just 1-2 days after across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I know that, I keep most complaints in the complaint thread. We should have a permanent one, not just a winter one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Its an oblique pattern. Sort of a La Nina gradient type with an active STJ. If we can maintain the cold anomalies across the West and warmer anomalies across the South in part of the SE Ridge we can get fairly large gradient type storms forming. Its an active pattern from now through Feb 28. The GFS hints something colossal next weekend lol. With a -AO and neutral to slightly negative -NAO that should maintain the cold anomalies. Whats your thought on the storm the GFS depicts in the short-medium range (90-120 hours). The ECMWF how ever suppresses it and instead bringers a weaker lower just 1-2 days after across the region. The system in the 90-120hr range will more than likely pass South of most of this region except maybe KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Maybe we can do 1978 again, only this time in reverse. New England got theirs first this time, then 11 days later... :weenie: The system in the 90-120hr range will more than likely pass South of most of this region except maybe KY. I have to work today and am just home for lunch. I'll have to check the latest later. Last I saw models were wishy-washy with that system. EDIT: Arggghh. Why do I do that? I just had to have a peek at the GFS. It shows some energy diving down and carving a trough with 0C 850's into old Mexico around 174,, ejecting out and going negative and blowing up another coastal around 204. I'm going back to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Pattern going forward looks even better then Feb 2011. Better enso state, QBO etc. Thing is do we cash in? Chances are as good as they get even for the big one. Talking my kind of big one. Could be next weekend or something else. Next weekend does have some potential though. Oh and believe me i still have my negative side but with that i still cannot ignore the potential that exists. It IS there. as clownish as he is, JBs pattern recognition skills say the US has by far the harshest part of winter yet to come. One way or another those death ridge and spring beginning on Valentines Day calls are clearly going up in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Welp...Feb 4/5 S/W came an went...RWT energy was busted up into several pieces of energy so temps ended up warming up behind the waves for the 5th-7th LOL. The 7/8 RWT came across the GLKS and did it's job and then the rest is history what it did as it headed east...5-10 degree warm up appears on track for Feb 11 with next RWT for 14/15 and then 16/17 and another 18/19. The 16/17 based on Mtn. Torque events appears it should dump a decent pocket of cold air across the GLKS for a brief period of time. Extending forecast....S/W arriving Feb. 21-22 with what appears to be a good shot of cold air behind it. Another S/W for Feb. 26-27 and then heading into March...cooler air arriving somewhere between March 5-9...I would venture a guess at a SW for March 4/5 with a decent warm temp spike ahead of it for March 2 or 3 with cooler air filtering in behind it for the 5-9 time frame. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3. as clownish as he is, JBs pattern recognition skills say the US has by far the harshest part of winter yet to come. One way or another those death ridge and spring beginning on Valentines Day calls are clearly going up in flames. Ya I never saw an early spring. Just a return to normal or slightly above normal temps for second half of Feb. And a blast from the past...for east coast blizzard So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Welp...Feb 4/5 S/W came an went...RWT energy was busted up into several pieces of energy so temps ended up warming up behind the waves for the 5th-7th LOL. The 7/8 RWT came across the GLKS and did it's job and then the rest is history what it did as it headed east...5-10 degree warm up appears on track for Feb 11 with next RWT for 14/15 and then 16/17 and another 18/19. The 16/17 based on Mtn. Torque events appears it should dump a decent pocket of cold air across the GLKS for a brief period of time. Extending forecast....S/W arriving Feb. 21-22 with what appears to be a good shot of cold air behind it. Another S/W for Feb. 26-27 and then heading into March...cooler air arriving somewhere between March 5-9...I would venture a guess at a SW for March 4/5 with a decent warm temp spike ahead of it for March 2 or 3 with cooler air filtering in behind it for the 5-9 time frame. How do you feel about the big bomb potential some are starting to talk about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Looks like some small potential outside of D7 if we can get that s/w closed low to interact with the polar jet. Otherwise, back into hibernation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 How do you feel about the big bomb potential some are starting to talk about? What date? I have been super busy...haven't looked at others forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 What date? I have been super busy...haven't looked at others forecasts. Its my understanding that the pattern is very favorable for big bombs. Not sure of any specific date, just within the next few weeks (beginning perhaps a week from now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Cant help but notice that its light outside for longer. This I approve of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Its my understanding that the pattern is very favorable for big bombs. Not sure of any specific date, just within the next few weeks (beginning perhaps a week from now). The 15th - 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 I agree with this, the prospect of a SE ridge would help promote stuff coming up this way and would also increase the potential of severe weather for the Mid South. We the 18z GFS certainly shows this in the long range (and the 12z Euro/ensembles looked like they were hinting at it is as well), two really impressive systems coming out of the west post-truncation, although obviously details are vague and should be for sometime. I do think the pattern next weekend has big time potential (snow wise) for somewhere should things fall together like they did for the blizzard yesterday/this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 We the 18z GFS certainly shows this in the long range (and the 12z Euro/ensembles looked like they were hinting at it is as well), two really impressive systems coming out of the west post-truncation, although obviously details are vague and should be for sometime. I do think the pattern next weekend has big time potential (snow wise) for somewhere should things fall together like they did for the blizzard yesterday/this morning. Been showing a west of the apps solution but do you think its possible that it blast NE once again. Side Note: these images coming out of NE are truly epic. Loving the vis sat veiws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Its my understanding that the pattern is very favorable for big bombs. Not sure of any specific date, just within the next few weeks (beginning perhaps a week from now).I think there are lots of opportunities coming down the pipeline. With mtn. torque indicating cold air should be arriving over northern tier for 16/17 and RWTs being broke up in the Pacific by the ridge and producing pockets of energy for the southern stream and RWT energy expected to arrive 14/15;16/17; and 18/19 probably setting us up for a plethora of combinations of pieces of energy. So better chances for something to develop coming up from the GoM and phasing with a clipper or something coming over the top of the ridge out west...so I think things look more favorable to get lucky with so many players likely on the board next week since our 850 temps ended up cooperating with us too for mid Feb and thus better chances it stays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Serious zzz the next 7 days. Just to keep you guys on your heels, P003 & P004: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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