buckeye Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Roger Smith: Here's my contribution to the mix: Expect record high temperatures for most of a week to ten day period around mid-February to 25th or so. Reason is from research strong indications of a major height building episode over the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. at that time. Overall reason (since that's really just the same prediction in upper air terms) has to do with solar system magnetic field structure and earth's approach to J-1 field sector. Analogues include 1930 and 1954 which both set numerous record highs in February. The pattern before that may be highly variable with brief shots of -10 anomaly arctic air interspersed with +3 type warm sectors in a generally WNW flow, in other words, clippers on parade. This would be a rather dry pattern for many with some lake effect squall opportunities. The warm spell will be massive for central-eastern regions and could involve rain/drizzle/fog into far northern plains states as well as northern New England, and an early snow melt in those regions and even into parts of nw to n/c ON and s MB except for possibility of major snowfall western MB into SK and MT. I like it, and very hard to bet against warm forecasts lately....not to mention R.S. isn't half bad with his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I like it, and very hard to bet against warm forecasts lately....not to mention R.S. isn't half bad with his forecasts. Where's my triple phaser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 he's never impressed me much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How will Saturn's rings impact the march torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Where's my triple phaser? Was thinking the same thing. Although he was pretty good with Death Dome 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 lol, he's still pimping the J-field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 How will Saturn's rings impact the march torch? personally I don't care if its saturn, pluto or daffy duck making a forecast.... if it's screaming warm...i'ts probably screaming accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 http://futureweatherinc.wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Was thinking the same thing. Although he was pretty good with Death Dome 2012. Blind squirrel and nut? Until he explains his astro/lunar methodology I find it hard to take him too seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 http://futureweatherinc.wordpress.com/ Nice find. There's the explanation I was looking for. But as I recall most mets that post on this board have dismissed this stuff as quackery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Blind squirrel and nut? Until he explains his astro/lunar methodology I find it hard to take him too seriously. Agree, but methodology issues aside, it was pretty impressive to call for the worst heat since 1936 well in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Uranus has a cold start to March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I like it, and very hard to bet against warm forecasts lately....not to mention R.S. isn't half bad with his forecasts. Nice find. There's the explanation I was looking for. But as I recall most mets that post on this board have dismissed this stuff as quackery. When you consider what the GFS is depicting for late next week and beyond, the call for a warm mid February might not be far off the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I like it, and very hard to bet against warm forecasts lately....not to mention R.S. isn't half bad with his forecasts. No you are right, he is all bad, I mean seriously this J-field stuff is nothing but quackery. He posted the same stuff last year with hand drawn maps that had 0 verification to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 When you consider what the GFS is depicting for late next week and beyond, the call for a warm mid February might not be far off the mark. Regarding R.Smith, I'll read any met or hobbiest that gives a forecast and backs it with reasoning, whatever that might be, (solar activity, space, or good ole fashioned traditional indices). Posters that do that are ones like OHweather, DonS, Usedtobe, HM, and yes, even RogerS. The ones I don't care for are the ones that do nothing but provide commentary and criticisim about everyone elses forecast while rarely putting anything of substance out themselves. Not saying there are any like that around here....but I've seen a few. (and yes I exclude myself because I am neither a met or a hobbiest, I'm lowest pay-grade....weenie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Regarding R.Smith, I'll read any met or hobbiest that gives a forecast and backs it with reasoning, whatever that might be, (solar activity, space, or good ole fashioned traditional indices). Posters that do that are ones like OHweather, DonS, Usedtobe, HM, and yes, even RogerS. The ones I don't care for are the ones that do nothing but provide commentary and criticisim about everyone elses forecast while rarely putting anything of substance out themselves. Not saying there are any like that around here....but I've seen a few. (and yes I exclude myself because I am neither a met or a hobbiest, I'm lowest pay-grade....weenie). Roger doesn't back his J-field stuff with reasoning, and there is no verification from it. The others most certainly hold themselves accountable whether the forecast is good/bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Kind of wish Roger would post on here to defend himself... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Did you recently move from Ottawa to Toronto? Don't think the past two winters are even remotely normal for Toronto overall. I averaged 50+ inches over the past decade and this year I might struggle to hit 20 inches... We are in a rut here. lol we have had 20 inches here already, actually 20" on the nose. Not often for Detroit to be beating you, but clearly just west of you towards Lansing is in a snowhole. No way you dont hit 20" on the season, no way. I actually am on the fence 50/50, but with a roller coaster pattern in place and not to mention Qvectors thoughts on later Feb into Mar....chances seem decent Detroit may actually end up above normal in the snow department this winter. And if....IF.... thats the case, your talking about the epic snow totals 2007-2011, then a below normal 2011-12 (but not even top 20 snowless worthy) and back to AOA normal this year...no rut here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah with the MJO progressing through many phases this month, look for things to be a roller coaster, bad for the snow cover guys, good for those who like dynamic and changeable weather patterns. This is the kind of pattern that is ripe for most of the SE MI posters except me and Jonger. Detroit will finish January with a season-to-date total only a few inches of snow below normal and a few snowcover days below normal...essentially very close overall to normal (regardless of what some think it seems like). Patterns like the one hinted at above...IF it pans out... really increase the chances of seeing above normal snowfall in the end I think, but snowcover guys like myself will have to deal with 1, maybe 2 week stretches of snowcover at a time as well as rainstorms to get the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Regarding R.Smith, I'll read any met or hobbiest that gives a forecast and backs it with reasoning, whatever that might be, (solar activity, space, or good ole fashioned traditional indices). Posters that do that are ones like OHweather, DonS, Usedtobe, HM, and yes, even RogerS. The ones I don't care for are the ones that do nothing but provide commentary and criticisim about everyone elses forecast while rarely putting anything of substance out themselves. Not saying there are any like that around here....but I've seen a few. (and yes I exclude myself because I am neither a met or a hobbiest, I'm lowest pay-grade....weenie). Well said buckeye. Not sure why we feel the need to bag on the guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 No you are right, he is all bad, I mean seriously this J-field stuff is nothing but quackery. He posted the same stuff last year with hand drawn maps that had 0 verification to themWell we will have to bump this in late February to see if we are coming off a 7-10 day stretch of record high temps over a massive part of the country. Chance of such a scenario verifying- 1%. Qvector and ohweather provide much more reasoninf for their thoughts and record week+ long torch was not in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 might be time to leave the board if roger smith nut licking is a new thing. Jesus Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 my farts smell different today... warm summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 might be time to leave the board if roger smith nut licking is a new thing. Jesus Christ Man, I must have missed some good discussion RE: Roger - that said, that has to be the first time "nut licking" has been used in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 back on topic - GFS continues to show a fairly active pattern in the long range (surprise, surprise). Seems reasonable to suggest that we at least have some "chances" in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 back on topic - GFS continues to show a fairly active pattern in the long range (surprise, surprise). Seems reasonable to suggest that we at least have some "chances" in the long range. I think we've been saying that for the last three months. Cue "laying down snowcover" argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 For sure - to be fair GFS had today's snow, in some form or another, modeled at least 10 days out so I don't think all hope is lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 might be time to leave the board if roger smith nut licking is a new thing. Jesus Christ Haven't seen anyone praise RS, much less lick his balls, (unless NOT bashing equates to oral sex). Have you seen most of the pre-season forecasts leading up to this winter? I mean you can bash RS all you want, but you can't do it based on him having a worse track record than a lot of the 'legit' mets. Hell think of your own back yard and forget longrange, just consider shortrange. Take all the individual forecasts, {watches, warnings, and advisories), how much snow was predicted so far for ORD this winter from Skilling and the NWS? So far this winter has taken no prisoners and quite honestly i didn't see RS's winter forecast, for all we know he may have crushed the other ones or he may have blown chunks like the other ones....but that would be about the worse you could say about him. I will throw props to DonS. Haven't read him in awhile but he seemed to be nailing the first part of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Haven't seen anyone praise RS, much less lick his balls, (unless NOT bashing equates to oral sex). Have you seen most of the pre-season forecasts leading up to this winter? I mean you can bash RS all you want, but you can't do it based on him having a worse track record than a lot of the 'legit' mets. Hell think of your own back yard and forget longrange, just consider shortrange. Take all the individual forecasts, {watches, warnings, and advisories), how much snow was predicted so far for ORD this winter from Skilling and the NWS? So far this winter has taken no prisoners and quite honestly i didn't see RS's winter forecast, for all we know he may have crushed the other ones or he may have blown chunks like the other ones....but that would be about the worse you could say about him. I will throw props to DonS. Haven't read him in awhile but he seemed to be nailing the first part of winter. Quackery is easier to pull off when the science of long range prediction is still in it's infancy. Without a strong ENSO signal predicting what will happen beyond 3-4 weeks it's pretty much a total shot in the dark. If you've actually studied and worked with numerical climate models like I have the most surprising thing is that they have any predictive power at all. I haven't seen one that even gets the rainfall pattern of the Pacific ITCZ to match real world climatology. I think the main problem is the sub-grid scale cloud and convection parametrization schemes fail. They either convect too easily, completely mixing heat and moisture through the entire depth of the troposphere in a way that is unrealistically uniform, or they unrealistically suppress convection and allow too much warmth and instability to build up over the tropics, causing unrealistically vigorous MCS's and hurricanes to sprout everywhere. Either case destroys the MJO signal in the long term. Having a model that simultaneously reproduces the long term MJO signal, coupled ocean-atmosphere wave interactions, and fluctuations in stratospheric polar vortex, we might start to have some better seasonal prediction ability. Right now there's only so much information you can get out of statistical analogs because we really about 30 years of quality data to work with. A 100 year record would be nice. Of course by then the new problem will be the global mean climate has changed so much that the analogs are no longer as useful. It's incredibly frustrating. The reason I got severely burned out on the prospect of making a career out of it. So now I have a MS degree but don't really know what I want to do with it (and currently suffering with other health issues that prevent me from away from my family). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 So any change in the mini torch advertised a few days ago ???? I hope to keep the cold around for some time yet. The GFS looks to stay on the cooler side of the spectrum other than the warm ups with the gulf moisture lows. Sure wish the arctic air would grow some and win over the warmth when tropicial moisture is involved. Saw two rounds of thunder this January with heavy rain.... Disaponting potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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