Hoosier Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 My philosophy on March is pretty simple...I'll deal with some cold if it comes with snow, preferably a big snow. Otherwise, pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The cries on this forum would be well worth it, to see a March 1960 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 To be honest, I would be all for another March torch even though it won't happen. Considering the CFS did very well with Morch 2012, we'll see where it's at for this upcoming March by mid Feb. It nailed last March at that time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 most severe weeniers want a morch and are sick of winter mostly by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Color me shocked that the clipper disappeared from the Euro five days out. NW flow rarely delivers on this side of the lake unless you live up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 sounds like you just punted winter for 90% of the forum I also said snowfall would be about normal to slightly above normal across the region for Feb................................................................................................................. And big winners would be...... And I said there would probably be a temp gradient from the GLKS to the NE where the NE ends up with + departures so the CFS only has to inch those - departs 1500 miles or so and we are on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 most severe weeniers want a morch and are sick of winter mostly by then. I'm a mild severe weenie and I would gladly take a cold and snowy March since they have been tough to come by in recent winters sans 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'm a mild severe weenie and I would gladly take a cold and snowy March since they have been tough to come by in recent winters sans 2008. hence the most.. even in a cold march you get enough warmth that should satisfy the severe pusses and sweaty crotch lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I also said snowfall would be about normal to slightly above normal across the region for Feb................................................................................................................. And big winners would be...... You're fine. Buckeye likes to stir up the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The cries on this forum would be well worth it, to see a March 1960 repeat. Oh would they ever lol! Heres March 1960 at Detroit...departure of -8.8F, and thats with a torch to end the month no less. Far colder and whiter than any other month that winter. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-F1AE3EF9-C9AB-46E8-BC0D-08502AE8396D.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Color me shocked that the clipper disappeared from the Euro five days out. NW flow rarely delivers on this side of the lake unless you live up north. 5 days is the magic number when models seem to lose a system only to bring it back. And it didnt really lose it all together its just meager qpf, kinda disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I'd take a repeat of March 1877, Milwaukee had a ridiculous 46.5" of snow that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Absolutely horrific run of the GFS at 0z. Essentially predicts a blowtorch first half of February, with the exception of this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Absolutely horrific run of the GFS at 0z. Essentially predicts a blowtorch first half of February, with the exception of this upcoming weekend. CFL style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not to say the extended will or won't be a bag of crap, but did anyone see the snows we got this week more than say 3-4 days out. People punting just for the sake of seeing their posts on a forum at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Not to say the extended will or won't be a bag of crap, but did anyone see the snows we got this week more than say 3-4 days out. People punting just for the sake of seeing their posts on a forum at this point. Relax Stebo. Just having some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Relax Stebo. Just having some fun. Oh I know your post is in jest, some others though I question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Oh I know your post is in jest, some others though I question For real, there's some real weather fatalists here. Anyway, I think QV has a good handle on things. Activity looks to pick up for February me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For real, there's some real weather fatalists here. Anyway, I think QV has a good handle on things. Activity looks to pick up for February me thinks. Yeah with the MJO progressing through many phases this month, look for things to be a roller coaster, bad for the snow cover guys, good for those who like dynamic and changeable weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I see no reason at this time to amend my post from late last week in which I stated I expect normal to below normal temps to prevail through at least mid-February...although it is late and I only have time for some abbreviated thoughts: The lower levels of the stratosphere are continuing to warm as the early month SSW event continues to propagate downward: Two Sundays ago (I believe) I posted the compostie map of the high-latitudes for Februaries after which a warming event (using 10mb temps as my proxy) peaked during the first half of January...and the composite strongly suggested -NAO potential for Februaries after similar 10mb warming events...I do still have the composite map off hand so I'll repost that: The GFS ensembles are continuing to suggest the AO taking another nose dive for the second week of February which suggests the pattern will remain amplified: As has been mentioned...the MJO will remain in eastern US "cold" phases for at least another week and a half to two weeks. The ECM suite does show the MJO moving into phase 2 in about 11 days which is beginning to become unfavorable for the region. The GFS suite stalls the MJO in phases 8-1 through the next two weeks. The GWO is in octant 8 (although is still at a very high amplitude)...although my understanding of these things is still very basic...that tends to correlate to South American convection, so I personally support the MJO continuing to propagate similar to what the ECM suite shows. However, that still means the tropical Pacific convection will be favorable for a +PNA for about two weeks, which the GFS ensembles do have...after that though we'll probably have to worry about another significant warm up:The MJO propagation east also supports a more active sub-tropical jet...and that has been consistently modeled to occur over the US by the second week of February at the latest...note the developing negative height anomaly off the California Coast in the 8-10 day forecasts:Now, with this said, I'm still not very confident this pattern will support a significant synoptic snowstorm over this subforum during the first half of February...I believe the trough may be located too far east for anything more than clippers still...although it will certainly remain cold enough and with the AO- likely to remain...it wouldn't surprise me if the southern portion of the subforum perhaps gets to deal with more overrunning situations as the arctic air continues ooze south at the lower levels and as the sub-tropical jet begins to awaken.This pattern is somewhat more conducive for large-scale snowstorms over the east...in my previous posts I've been leaning towards the NAO trying to go negative during the first week or so of February although the models thus far haven't been too supportive of that...a -NAO would really support more of a substantial eastern US storm threat although with a neutral NAO...+PNA and more active STJ going forward they may be able to pull something off mainly to our east during the second week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Absolutely horrific run of the GFS at 0z. Essentially predicts a blowtorch first half of February, with the exception of this upcoming weekend. This is an analysis of the 0z GFS for Phoenix, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Latest 8-10 height maps on the GFS and Euro are hinting at a ripping flow across the Pacific....long advertised neg heights off CA coast less and less bullish and more north. Early stages of torch developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Latest 8-10 height maps on the GFS and Euro are hinting at a ripping flow across the Pacific....long advertised neg heights off CA coast less and less bullish and more north. Early stages of torch developing. your lips to God's ears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Latest 8-10 height maps on the GFS and Euro are hinting at a ripping flow across the Pacific....long advertised neg heights off CA coast less and less bullish and more north. Early stages of torch developing. You feast on bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You feast on bad news. Everyone isn't a recreational snow hobbyist...last march was wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You feast on bad news. Everyone isn't a recreational snow hobbyist...last march was wonderful. I didn't mind the march torch either, it came about the time my season ends anyhow... But I don't want that **** in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 For real, there's some real weather fatalists here. Anyway, I think QV has a good handle on things. Activity looks to pick up for February me thinks. Sorry guys. Must be the seasonal affective disorder kicking in. Plus, while I'm slowly getting there, I'm still adjusting to winters in the banana belt of Ontario (said in jest)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Sorry guys. Must be the seasonal affective disorder kicking in. Plus, while I'm slowly getting there, I'm still adjusting to winters in the banana belt of Ontario (said in jest)! Did you recently move from Ottawa to Toronto? Don't think the past two winters are even remotely normal for Toronto overall. I averaged 50+ inches over the past decade and this year I might struggle to hit 20 inches... We are in a rut here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Did you recently move from Ottawa to Toronto? Don't think the past two winters are even remotely normal for Toronto overall. I averaged 50+ inches over the past decade and this year I might struggle to hit 20 inches... We are in a rut here. I'm from Toronto, born and raised. Lived in Ottawa from 2006-2011.Yeah, this looks to be Toronto's second torch winter in a row, if the latest runs of the GFS are anything to go by. This is our biggest rut since the early 50s I would say. I keep hearing about thesye 80s, but even they were colder than this. Hopefully this is just an anomoly, like 1931/32, 1932/33, 1948/49 and 1949/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm from Toronto, born and raised. Lived in Ottawa from 2006-2011. Yeah, this looks to be Toronto's second torch winter in a row, if the latest runs of the GFS are anything to go by. This is our biggest rut since the early 50s I would say. I keep hearing about thesye 80s, but even they were colder than this. Hopefully this is just an anomoly, like 1931/32, 1932/33, 1948/49 and 1949/50. In terms of snowfall, this is our biggest rut ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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