Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[Thundersnow12]

The Euro was so close to something significant, the southern wave was just a bit to slow, little faster and you have a good phase a big storm

[Chicago WX]

Isn't it true that the EURO is better? It seems to be more accurate. It seems many NWS offices rely on it heavily. Of course it has it's biases, like hanging energy back in the SW.

 

Yeah, of course. But I referring to the comment in the article foreshadowing that the European models would be better in the long run...which was correct. Not that they're perfect, even now, but the stats tell the story. 

 

Back in the late 90's and early 2000's, you'd be hard pressed to see the Euro used in any AFD. It was pretty much MRF, all the time. Times were different back then to be sure, the Euro only ran once a day...the MRF only went to 240 hours...etc etc. In the end, just a trip down memory lane for me, when I guess things were simpler in the weather board/weather model days. 

[Hoosier]

12z Euro still drags its feet with the southern wave. Might've ticked quicker on this run but still not enough for a more impressive solution.

[Brewers]

12z GEM would be pretty sweet for southern WI

[Chicago WX]

Euro has a couple of clippers, one south and one north. First one is pretty faint around Jan 31/Feb 1, but there's a little something showing up in KY. The next one on the 2nd is a MI/ON special. Pretty good hit really, this far out.  

[wisconsinwx]

Yep, unfortunately would be mostly rain for se Wisconsin.

[wisconsinwx]

On the gem that is.

[hm8]

12z GEM would be pretty sweet for southern WI

 

 

Yep, unfortunately would be mostly rain for se Wisconsin. 

On the gem that is.

 

 

 

 

lol

[BeastFromTheEast]

On the gem that is.

 

Pace yourself man. Next year's contest is 11 months away still..

Don't want to blow your load this early.

 

 

GEM looks pretty nice up here. GFS wasn't half bad either..

 

Either way looks like some nice back-to-back storm action finally. Rain, ice,sleet, snow, whatever  I'll take it!

[Jonger]

After next week's warm-up, is it likely that we'll see another cold nap like the one we've just experienced? Thursday's front looks impressive. Hoping for a month similar to February 1967, with a bit of 1934 and 2003 thrown in for good measure.

We have no block in place, so all cold will be transient. Just like January, it's going to be a big rolled coaster I fear.

[Thundersnow12]

Really need the southern wave to become dominant with a more neutral tilt, unlike the GFS while the GEM is a better version of the GFS with energy still hanging back as the wave rides on up.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

We have no block in place, so all cold will be transient. Just like January, it's going to be a big rolled coaster I fear.

It would not surprise me if March was cold this year. Nature seems to search for balance, and the scales were tipped too much in favour of warmth last year. March 1950 or 1984 anyone?

[michsnowfreak]

It would not surprise me if March was cold this year. Nature seems to search for balance, and the scales were tipped too much in favour of warmth last year. March 1950 or 1984 anyone?

Ill take March 1960 please.

 

Looks like perhaps another clipper pattern coming...though we did well with Fridays clipper here, the train of clippers never did materialize. Maybe this time it will.

[A-L-E-K]

Interesting impulse on the sub-tropical jet as we get into the medium range.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Ill take March 1960 please.

 

Looks like perhaps another clipper pattern coming...though we did well with Fridays clipper here, the train of clippers never did materialize. Maybe this time it will.

Honestly, to me a truly great winter would be to have a December similar to 1989, followed by a January similar to 1994 followed by a February similar to 1934 and, finally, a March similar to 1950, 1960 or 2008.

[Chicago WX]

If we're talking March, then it's 1906 for my hood. 

 

Indianapolis saw 30.4" of snow that month. Pretty damn incredible.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

12z GFS looks better. A nice cold shot into the eastern lakes for next Monday.

[michsnowfreak]

Honestly, to me a truly great winter would be to have a December similar to 1989, followed by a January similar to 1994 followed by a February similar to 1934 and, finally, a March similar to 1950, 1960 or 2008.

March 1960 saw unprecedented cold and the snowpack stayed til the end of the month when a torch came (had the torch not come the last few days what is already the coldest or 2nd coldest Mar at many locations would have been mind boggling). And this coming after a mild winter too.

 

Have to give it to March 1900 for here. 30.2" of snow, a 26" snow depth, and a 14" and 16" snowstorm (Feb 28 & Mar 5). Had the Feb 28 snowstorm started a day earlier we would have had almost 43" in March.

[michsnowfreak]

If we're talking March, then it's 1906 for my hood. 

 

Indianapolis saw 30.4" of snow that month. Pretty damn incredible.

14.4" at Detroit. A good month for sure but less than half of Indys total. Goes to show you March does NOT mean suppression cant happen or that those south of I-80 cant be in play for more than just a 1 or 2 day shot of snow.

[Chicago WX]

14.4" at Detroit. A good month for sure but less than half of Indys total. Goes to show you March does NOT mean suppression cant happen or that those south of I-80 cant be in play for more than just a 1 or 2 day shot of snow.

 

Yeah, we're still in play down here in the tropics...but it drops off quickly after mid month climatologically. As an example of March "suppression", March 2008 and 2011 both had snow events in the first half, to the west, south, and east of here...both costing LAF a 50"+ season. Still mad about that.

[QVectorman]

Here is a quick POP over the last few weeks. Thanks guys!

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between 1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east with a 2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for 3)Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving 4)Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a 5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. My GWO analogs only take me out to Jan 9 so there may be another short wave or two to add to the 2 already expected for the Jan 9-24 time frame. I will update as the newest GWO numbers come out over the next week and half.

 

Correction to forecast Jan 5 on warm for Jan 11-13 time frame....

 

Posted by QVectorman on 5 January 2013 - 03:11 PM in New England

I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. 6)Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month.

 

It appears the Jan 20-24 cold shot should be comparable in magnitude of the upcoming Jan 2-3 airmass. Also latest GWO numbers are currently trending towards an agreement of the Jan 20-24 date. I will have concrete confirmation or rejection of that assumption by Tues.

Extending the outlook 7)Jan 24-26 show up as next pocket of cooler air...although I will say signals are mixed on this window date so I'm not too confident on this time frame producing a cooler airmass for the MW/NE.

Although 8)Jan 26-30 looks very impressive and should out do the Jan 2-3 850mb cold air wrt temps.

I will also say that it appears a lot of these dates are back to back and should mention that these forecasted chunks of cooler/colder air are cooler/colder relative to the air in place that they displace. So I don't claim to know the temperature range of the 850mb temps arriving...The concept can only forecast that it will be "colder" than the one that will be in place at the time of it's arrival and are associated with shortwaves so there will be brief time frames of southerly winds ahead of the short waves that will produce WAA ahead of waves and as a result might produce brief minor spikes in 850 temps and sfc temps in transition from time frame to time frame. When the signals are stronger an estimation of the temp of the air is possible such as the Jan. 2-3 and Jan 20-24 and Jan 26-30 episode. The other time frames are just hiccups in the stat. signal and coincide to minor dips in sfc temperatures relative to previous days' highs but I figure they are worth mentioning.

Forecast of -33C temps along Canadian border...although I was about 4 days off and I adjusted the Jan 26-30 date to Jan 27-29 back on Jan 6.

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 15-19 range moving into the Jan 20-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 15-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 

1)Jan 7-10 will see a warm up over the east

2)short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11

3)Cooler Jan 10-13 -----CORRECTED in 6)

4)Cold Jan 15-19 time frame  

5)second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24

6)warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13

7)Jan 24-26 pocket of cooler air  

8)Jan 26-30 cold or S/W-->Jan 27-29

I covered the S/W verification for event 2) for Jan 10-11 a couple weeks ago in my last POP post along with Event 1 so quick

run down of the rest of these...I was off by about 4 days on the coldest temps, they settled in Jan 22 not the 24/25 like I

expected. But we did see -33C at the MN/Can border on Jan 21. The Jan 27-29 cold shot didn't materialize the S/W is there but it didn't track far enough east to bring down any cold air so we have warmer temps east of the MS. Then on top of that we have another S/W right on it's heels that I spoke about back on Jan 18th which has strong southerly flow ahead of it that will spike temps for the 29 and 30th with just as strong cold blast behind it. This is one of those situations that I always had disclaimers about LOL.

DTW meteogram

850 temps for Jan 21

SW for Jan 27

[QVectorman]

Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's. Recap....we had xt RTW that was in the pacific last wednesday arrived on the 24 early 25th in a couple pieces. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3.

In regards to over all temps rehashing last week's ideas the vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate by the 29th As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 29....when the PV re-consolidates. Also matches up with the MJO dynamical forecasts that would take us into phase 2/3 by mid Feb resulting in a warmer or more seasonable scenario for the last half of Feb. I just have a feeling when using the strat. and GWO analogs that the base state of the 850 temps for Feb will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month.

I don't see the demise of winter though. My 3 month temp analogs have March running near normal across the NE and below normal for the GLKS. So there is a gradient there. Along with a snow gradient...GLKS cashes in for Marchs. 

 

March 1960 saw unprecedented cold and the snowpack stayed til the end of the month when a torch came (had the torch not come the last few days what is already the coldest or 2nd coldest Mar at many locations would have been mind boggling). And this coming after a mild winter too.

 

Have to give it to March 1900 for here. 30.2" of snow, a 26" snow depth, and a 14" and 16" snowstorm (Feb 28 & Mar 5). Had the Feb 28 snowstorm started a day earlier we would have had almost 43" in March.

 

And for Josh, I have 1960 as a analog so I'm feeling a March 1960 feeling to this year's March!

[SpartyOn]

Been a while since we have had a solid wintery March. Wouldn't mind a bomb or 2 EARLY in the month, but Ill have pass on the entire month though given cabin fever/spring fever starts around St Pats day for myself and millions of others.

[BowMeHunter]

sweet news about march... we don't need another morch that's for sure.

[buckeye]

.... Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month.

...

 

sounds like you just punted winter for 90% of the forum

[Chicago WX]

I know QV isn't forecasting a repeat, but March 1960 was by far the coldest March on record for the state of Indiana (top 5 below). Would be a nice ying to last March's yang. I say bring it on.  

 

26.3º - 1960

30.9º - 1906

31.8º - 1912

32.4º - 1984

33.1º - 1932

[A-L-E-K]

I'll pass on that nonsense

[QVectorman]

Ya March departures was like -6 or -7 for DTW I believe in 60. I don't think it will be that cold but I can see us definitely in the <-2 range.

[nwburbschaser]

sweet news about march... we don't need another morch that's for sure.

 

To be honest, I would be all for another March torch even though it won't happen. 

[Chicago Storm]