andyhb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z NAM looks cutoff-ey. So we know which solution probably won't happen Definitely more progressive looking though up until around 72 hrs, so it's a step away from the Euro (not that anything on the NAM is to be trusted post 48-54 hrs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z NAM looks cutoff-ey. So we know which solution probably won't happen What's the ETAXX got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What's the ETAXX got? lol, does that still even exist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 lol, does that still even exist? I don't think so. It was pretty awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 ETAXX? That sounds like some sort of computer virus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 ETAXX? That sounds like some sort of computer virus... It kind of was, lol. Pretty bad model. It was the extended portion of the old ETA model. Sorta like the DGEX today. Could find on it on DTX's website back in the day. Not 100% sure if they ran it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 One more OT, but some of us old timers will get a kick out this...an article from USA Today talking about "current"/"new" computer models: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/wmodlist.htm This comment in the article was clairvoyant. It is still too early to tell which of the medium range models performs the best. Each of the medium range models has its own strengths and weaknesses. However, the higher resolution of the European models may lead to a better long term performance record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The difference between the Euro/NAM vs GFS with this system is something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 One more OT, but some of us old timers will get a kick out this...an article from USA Today talking about "current"/"new" computer models: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/weather/wmodlist.htm This comment in the article was clairvoyant. It is still too early to tell which of the medium range models performs the best. Each of the medium range models has its own strengths and weaknesses. However, the higher resolution of the European models may lead to a better long term performance record. Isn't it true that the EURO is better? It seems to be more accurate. It seems many NWS offices rely on it heavily. Of course it has it's biases, like hanging energy back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The difference between the Euro/NAM vs GFS with this system is something. Could be interesting for Madison up to about Stevens Point, time for a SE shift, even though it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Could be interesting for Madison up to about Stevens Point, time for a SE shift, even though it won't happen. Yeah, the NAM doesn't seem to show a big rain storm or anything like that...I hope it is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Isn't it true that the EURO is better? It seems to be more accurate. It seems many NWS offices rely on it heavily. Of course it has it's biases, like hanging energy back in the SW. Yep, its skill scores/errors are consistently higher/lower. It's kinda like combat...it will lose some battles along the way but it wins the war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yep, its skill scores/errors are consistently higher/lower. It's kinda like combat...it will lose some battles along the way but it wins the war. Nice. After looking at the GFS, I say "No thanks, I'll pass." That looks like the ultimate snow eating thaw. Drizzle, probably fog, and then a nice big rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Nice. After looking at the GFS, I say "No thanks, I'll pass." That looks like the ultimate snow eating thaw. Drizzle, probably fog, and then a nice big rainfall. Outside of those who enjoy watching severe wx events on radar 100s of miles away ( and perhaps a few in IA/WI ) i think most will pass on the GFS type outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Outside of those who enjoy watching severe wx events on radar 100s of miles away ( and perhaps a few in IA/WI ) i think most will pass on the GFS type outcome. Yeah I'll pass as well. Short blast of stratified rain, dry slot, flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Outside of those who enjoy watching severe wx events on radar 100s of miles away ( and perhaps a few in IA/WI ) i think most will pass on the GFS type outcome. Hopefully the GFS will do one of its notorious mood swings and change to be like the NAM and EURO in the morning...and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The GEM had a weenie run for some; probably will be its only run like this, but might as well enjoy it while it lasts; a low intensifying to 980mb just north of LM, while a nice deformation zone forms and blasts NW Illinois and S Wisconsin (well, using the relative term of the word blast). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Would be a nice hit for Hawkeye. Verbatim it would be continuing the theme of the '12-'13 winter with that 50-100 mile wide deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Could be a flood threat if the GFS/GGEM verify. This water won't get absorbed well with the frozen ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Would be a nice hit for Hawkeye. Verbatim it would be continuing the theme of the '12-'13 winter with that 50-100 mile wide deformation band. + Turtle and Andy! Solstice storm repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Could be a flood threat if the GFS/GGEM verify. This water won't get absorbed well with the frozen ground. Seeing the Low taking the typical tack up through Lake Michigan makes me nervous that this could easily be reality. Hre isto hoping the NAM verifies with the other typical track from the past winters of a weak low passing on by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 + Turtle and Andy! Solstice storm repeat. Pretty much a less moisture laden version of it. Hopefully less marginal for DVN, MKE, and ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Pretty much a less moisture laden version of it. Hopefully less marginal for DVN, MKE, and ORD. Well Lake Michigan would not be an issue to speak of if that happened. Yeah no thanks on the GFS solution for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Well Lake Michigan would not be an issue to speak of if that happened. Yeah no thanks on the GFS solution for Tuesday. I think what would save us more too is the consistent SSW to NNE movement, whereas the NE to E trek of the Solstice storm shortened the precip duration and the early occlusion wasn't great for precip type around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The UKMET is also similar to the GGEM only it drops the low to 970 in the same location/time. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see the Euro cave tonight toward the other solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The UKMET is also similar to the GGEM only it drops the low to 970 in the same location/time. I wouldn't be at all shocked to see the Euro cave tonight toward the other solution. 00z Euro looks like another step away from the cutoff solution so far at 72 hours. Whether it will be enough for a big storm, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro is trying. Another step toward something more progressive and we'll probably have something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z Euro looks like another step away from the cutoff solution so far at 72 hours. Whether it will be enough for a big storm, we'll see. It didn't. It looked close, I thought that low in Kansas at 72-84 hours had potential, but alas, certainly from a snow perspective, it squandered its opportunity on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The ECMWF is having issues. The STJ low was actually in Mexico lol. Yeah the Southern stream low doesn't match the trough location. The run was a hard trend toward the GFS with respect to the upper air pattern, the surface pattern though doesn't make a bit of sense compared to the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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