Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 00z Euro has the cutoff over Arizona at 144 hours. 12z run had it off the coast of California at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Well, it's still an improvement over 12z lol yes but both are light years worse than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Probably the sweetest gfs run for snow in the long range for the OV and lower lakes this season. For whatever that's worth. Would be nice to get another model on board regarding the gfs 144 hr storm. 06z says... Psych! Just fckin with y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 #moreofthesame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 About as much run to run consistency as the minnesota gophers have scoring..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Todays episode of model madness should be great.....GFS starts rolling in less than an hour Im sure snowstorms and torches and arctic outbreaks and rainstorms are "on the way". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The NAEFS continues to portray cold the first week or so of Feb... seems to be consistent the last few days: http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Todays episode of model madness should be great.....GFS starts rolling in less than an hour Im sure snowstorms and torches and arctic outbreaks and rainstorms are "on the way". My guess is theme for the day will be suppression and southern snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models will probably start to show the 1st tulip popping torches in 3 weeks or so. Gotta make up some ground real fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models will probably start to show the 1st tulip popping torches in 3 weeks or so. Gotta make up some ground real fast. We had fresh dandelions growing here two weeks ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models will probably start to show the 1st tulip popping torches in 3 weeks or so. Gotta make up some ground real fast. Ground is pretty frozen considering it's been bare. I bet there is close to a foot of frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12-20 inches around here. Observations in lower michigan generally show less than 5 inches Ground is pretty frozen considering it's been bare. I bet there is close to a foot of frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ground is pretty frozen considering it's been bare. I bet there is close to a foot of frost. Models hinting at another dry cold stretch after the rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 low that brings the coldfront thru next week, bombs to 949 over easter canada by hr 156. Crushing suppression...but I'd imagine LE would be killer for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Hoosier approved run of the 12z GFS. Pulls off back to back 60's for LAF on Tue and early Wed. Looks wet too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 definitely NOT suppression city after that cold shot eases up late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ground is pretty frozen considering it's been bare. I bet there is close to a foot of frost. Hasnt been bare but the snowcover has been very light, not enough to insulate it...that probably helped it get so frozen. Look at what happened in late Dec into early Jan...as soon as it got cold we immediately got a thick blanket of snow which insulated the ground so when the torch came it was not really frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models will probably start to show the 1st tulip popping torches in 3 weeks or so. Gotta make up some ground real fast. lol. The snow season officially reaches its halfway point tomorrow. I dont think we have to make up ground "real fast". Models probably will show a tulip popping torch....they will also probably will show a historic snowstorm, a huge arctic blast, rain to cold scenarios, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 definitely NOT suppression city after that cold shot eases up late next week. Fantasy land hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 6z GFS almost got me excited looping H5 vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z Op GFS looks like an outlier amongst its ensembles. Looks like about 7 of the ensemble members have a cutoff low, which is what recent Euro runs have been suggesting. Edit: although the 12z Euro seems to be trying to back off on how much it cuts off compared to previous runs. Models, lovely models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 18z GFS certainly wasn't a cut off, essentially swings it neutral tilt on Tuesday through the Plains and then bombs the dynamics on Wednesday with a 130+ kt speed max at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 18z GFS certainly wasn't a cut off, essentially swings it neutral tilt on Tuesday through the Plains and then bombs the dynamics on Wednesday with a 130+ kt speed max at H5. Very impressive 500 mb winds on the GFS. There's actually a max of about 150 kts in Canada at 31/6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Most of the 18z GEFS members backed off on the cutoff idea. There are some *really* wound up solutions in the mix for midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yeah there are some really impressive looking solutions there, both on the severe side initially and then potentially the snow side with some monster sfc cyclones cutting to the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'd like for the Euro to come back some on this, it had a baby step toward a solution that doesn't involve a cutoff but we need more than that from the Euro. The problem is the Euro and to an extent the GGEM tries to suck some of the vorticity underneath the PNA ridge. If that doesn't happen a much stronger solution will certainly be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 If the stronger gfs ensemble potential lows occur, are western lakes cities like Milwaukee still in play for a potential snowstorm or are we too far se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 After next week's warm-up, is it likely that we'll see another cold nap like the one we've just experienced? Thursday's front looks impressive. Hoping for a month similar to February 1967, with a bit of 1934 and 2003 thrown in for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 If the stronger gfs ensemble potential lows occur, are western lakes cities like Milwaukee still in play for a potential snowstorm or are we too far se. Possible, though I would most certainly favor something NW of there if the stronger outcome plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 00z NAM looks cutoff-ey. So we know which solution probably won't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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