Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Some of the 12z GEFS individual runs are interesting in the 132-156 hour range. Probably meaningless, but interesting. We can call it a winter if p007 verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 We can call it a winter if p007 verifies. P002 works too, though not as fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Quite a few of these ensembles are wintry looking for the subforum. P003 please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It brings out the cutoff around Groundhog Day, but fittingly, it's a strung out/suppressed mess. ok either speed up that northern stream or slow down that southern stream.... if ifs and buts were candy and nuts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro is a major change from its previous runs with the upper midwest main storm early next week. The new run splits the big western trough, leaving the southern piece in the sw conus while the northern piece sweeps across the upper midwest with little fanfare. Also, the Tuesday torch would be squashed before it started. Major change...and it shows in the ensembles as well. GFS and GEM however still have that torch. Will be interesting to see if its a blip or a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Rather have a torch with.moisture than flattened poo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I see the GFS went toward the Euro in removing the big system for the end of the month. I swear this season can't end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol, 60's cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol, 60's cancel. We'd probably still squeak it out on this run. Brief torch seems unavoidable for us, just the magnitude is in some question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We'd probably still squeak it out on this run. Brief torch seems unavoidable for us, just the magnitude is in some question. I'll take the under on this run. Still going to be warm for a couple of days, no denying that of course. And snow incoming at 144+. These models are a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS trying to triple phase? 35 years to the date. Well close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'll take the under on this run. Still going to be warm for a couple of days, no denying that of course. And snow incoming at 144+. These models are a hoot. Arent they though? Its borderline ridiculous actually. Its beating a dead horse to say this...but a lot less stress would be had by not living/dying by the models. In every statistical sense of the word in sensible weather this winter IMBY is on pace to exceed last winter in terms of "winter" weather (not saying its good mind you), but because of the model circus that has been going on since November, not in just the fantasy range but midrange as well...the illusion that it is anything close to last year tends to appear (remember last year didnt even have any fantasy eye candy...this year has been loaded with it). If the latest saga- next Thurs- would actually verify (which is probably a 5% chance), combined with tomorrow/Sunday...Detroits above normal in the snow department next week at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS trying to triple phase? Crappiest triple phase ever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Impressive run of the GFS, with regard to the January 30-31 front. It develops a second low which gives snow to Detroit and Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Impressive run of the GFS, with regard to the January 30-31 front. It develops a second low which gives snow to Detroit and Toronto. I'd hardly call it impressive more like a cluster**** of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 lol, only place to go is up.......(or in the GFS's case, gone with a totally different solution). Before the New Years 1864 blizzard, southeastern Indiana was in the low 60's......... Chicago and Detroit were basking in the 60s on January 24, 1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Probably the sweetest gfs run for snow in the long range for the OV and lower lakes this season. For whatever that's worth. Would be nice to get another model on board regarding the gfs 144 hr storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'll take the under on this run. Still going to be warm for a couple of days, no denying that of course. And snow incoming at 144+. These models are a hoot. 925 mb temps are still around 12C on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 925 mb temps are still around 12C on this run. Better check with Chad. Move past the torch, Ryan. The 0z GFS past 144 hours, until the end, has saved winter for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Better check with Chad. Move past the torch, Ryan. The 0z GFS past 144 hours, until the end, has saved winter for LAF. I thought checking with Chad was your job. Aren't you the one who got me started on him. GFS looks intriguing toward the end of the month. Too bad it will probably disappear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I thought checking with Chad was your job. Aren't you the one who got me started on him. GFS looks intriguing toward the end of the month. Too bad it will probably disappear. Dying mans last words this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I thought checking with Chad was your job. Aren't you the one who got me started on him. GFS looks intriguing toward the end of the month. Too bad it will probably disappear. But you found the light tonight. And yes, probably. The bleet goes on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Dying mans last words this winter. Yep. Models have looked very interesting beyond 140hrs quite a bit this winter. 95% of the time whatever it was that looked interesting **** the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ggem has the 144 hr storm. Southern plains to ky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ggem has the 144 hr storm. Southern plains to ky Screws Chicago. This one might have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Screws Chicago. This one might have legs. Well quite honestly, if recent model trends continue it will end up a flat wave that drops 1-3" over va beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I see the GFS went toward the Euro in removing the big system for the end of the month. I swear this season can't end soon enough. You're not kidding. I feel so bitter and jaded about not having a snow depth of more than .6", and watching model storms take the the worse case scenario that I couldn't care less if we torched until may. At least I can golf when it is warm... In all honesty, it has seemed all season like we have a piece of te puzzle to entice us in, only to watch something (cold air, dry layer, lack of moisture, etc) spoil the fun. I am still interested in the end of the month/ first week pf february timeframe, but I am adopting the Missouri motto, "show me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Can already see some differences with the 00z Euro. Not leaving quite as much behind in the southwest at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Can already see some differences with the 00z Euro. Not leaving quite as much behind in the southwest at 84 hours. 120hr says nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 120hr says nevermind. Well, it's still an improvement over 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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