Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 .. Does he get to bring burger king home for you No, like a normal person we buy food and cook it or we fish and then cook it. Not sure where any of this is going but it can end now as this is just stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 No, like a normal person we buy food and cook it or we fish and then cook it. Not sure where any of this is going but it can end now as this is just stupid. I apologize and am going to delete my uneducated post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I apologize and am going to delete my uneducated post. Thanks, we don't need the in fighting here anyways. We all are looking for interesting sensible weather for the region and shouldn't fight over silly things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 As I have been speculating, the GWO is moving into more El Nino like octants and is doing so at a high amplitude, supporting a propagating MJO pulse..I'm having trouble using the full reply option for some reason and can't upload images, but essentially the warm up is coming earlier than I thought thanks to the system this Friday/Saturday not amplifying as much as I initially thought it would...with a falling PNA and no Atlantic blocking this warm up is certainly appearing likely based off of the teleconnections for early next week.The models are finally moving the MJO pulse which matches with this high-amplitude phase 5 GWO and it should cause the PNA to go back positive by next weekend and shift the troughing eastward...there may be room for a storm near February first if we don't see the pattern go strait back to a supressed one but right now I don't have high confidence in a storm in this time frame.There is currently a monster ridge over the western polar regions which should combine with the developing PNA next week to again help displace the polar vortex...while there aren't quite as strong signals for extreme cold as there was proceeding the current cold snap, well below normal temperatures are again likely starting near February 1.A phase 8-1 MJO which we will see during the first week of February typically places troughing too far east for a big storm in this sub-forum but I'd look for something near the east coast during the first week of February...a strong system either cutting west of the Apps as troughing shifts east or along the east coast during the first few days of Feb would help lower the NAO and make it tougher for the Pacific to try to flatten things out again.Either way I still feel we should remain predominantly below normal through the first half of February across the region given strengthening signs for another cold snap near the beginning of the month and no signs yet of a quick return to warmth after the cold sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks for steering the thread back on topic OHweather Looks like a 1-day torch is probable centered around Tue or Wed, but many of the ensembles keep the torching south of I-80 it would appear, so I wouldnt say it is set in stone at all. Either way, winter looks to dominate for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Feb will find a way to deliver. Liking the "look" for once here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Feb will find a way to deliver. Liking the "look" for once here. If Feb does deliver...it will be absolutely epic seeing what has happened here in recent Februaries. DTW Feb snowfall since 2007 (note- avg is 10.4", but longterm is closer to 9"....a bit of the late 2000s Febs already showing up in the norms) 2007- 14.1" 2008- 24.2" 2009- 8.5" 2010- 27.0" 2011- 31.7" 2012- 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS still ejecting the trough in multiple pieces, but then really gets the secondary trough going, with a secondary sfc low and almost 2000 J/kg of CAPE into Dixie Alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Things look like a warm up is on our doorstep but my confidence of the extent of the warmth is a little low. Seems the trends are to be warm running cooler as the event gets closer .... Warm up ? Yes.. To what extent ?? Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 For the people. More hospitality than a place like New York where people are not afraid to be rude. Even if it's somewhat fake hospitality it's better than the alternative imo. Then again, if this board is any indication, I suppose the hospitality isn't great in the Midwest/Great Lakes either lol. Interestingly, many in Canada outside of Toronto have the same opinion of Toronto and Torontonians. I got cussed out for ordering a pizza in Boston once... By the owner! He was too tired to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 If Feb does deliver...it will be absolutely epic seeing what has happened here in recent Februaries. DTW Feb snowfall since 2007 (note- avg is 10.4", but longterm is closer to 9"....a bit of the late 2000s Febs already showing up in the norms) 2007- 14.1" 2008- 24.2" 2009- 8.5" 2010- 27.0" 2011- 31.7" 2012- 10.2" I'm hoping for a blend of 1934, 1971 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm starting to not count on anything beyond 72 hours nowadays. Medium range is purely speculation in my book. This guy had some interesting thoughts on this system and is somewhat optimistic for things to turn around in the Midwest. 2nd entry down. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/ I actually see that the coming rainstorm isn't the same piece of energy as fantasy storm I posted a while back. Rainstorm gets going on the 29th and heads towards lake Superior on the 30th. Fantasy storm was the later piece that doesn't actually approach the GL/OV until the 31st. By that time the next cold lobe will be rushing in. It's just too bad that the 29th storm looks like it will phase and cut west of the lakes. If the 29th storm was going to be a non-phasing dud, the 31st storm would have had a chance because the cold would have had some time to filter back south. Now it looks to like it will be suppressed SE as a post-frontal wave, that is if it doesn't fizzle completely. Can't win. Who knows though. Maybe I'll be wrong. Just not getting my hopes up for anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Two torchy storms in a row.. Yuk. Although I would love to lock in P004 GEFS for the tues/wed system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looks like ORD is more or less a lock to head into Feb under 4" Impressive torch potential next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 1st week of Feb looks to start very chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z GFS shows another decent shot of arctic air next week behind the mid-week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 ECM ensembles showing a strong signal for a trough dropping into the central and eastern US in the 6-10 day timeframe, ending the short warm up and bringing another period of below to at times well below temperatures to much of the region: It appears as though the system that will cut into the western lakes Tuesday/Wednesday will be the catalyst for the cold to again return to the region. Unfortunately, the phase 7 MJO we are seeing usually correlates with a -PNA, meaning cold in the west and with no NAO blocking, little chance for snow outside of the far western portions of the sub-forum. If this system is a bit weaker the cold may be a bit delayed but it should arrive right on schedule on or perhaps a little before February 1 as a strong MJO pulse continues to propagate eastward. Unfortunately the pattern appears it will flip to cold quickly and the trough out west will be wasted on a strong and hard cutter...the baroclinic zone through will likely remain far enough north for some action across the southeast half of the subforum until the end of next week, however unless the trough ends up ejecting in pieces there probably won't be any systems to take advantage of that. The GWO is still in phase 5 (supportive of dateline convection) and is at a very high amplitude...easily higher than anything we've seen so far this winter. It will be interesting to see what transpires after the first week of February...the Euro shows the MJO moving into phase 2 by the end of the 2 week forecast period...the GFS does not however the 12z GFS was rather zonal in the extended.Phase 5 of the GWO is supportive of cold mainly to our west (which we are going to see over the coming days) with a phase/octant 6-7 GWO being more typical of cold farther to the east...with phase 6 probably being the most intriguing for storms running through the eastern half of the subforum.So, it will be interesting to watch how quickly the GWO begins to orbit through the rest of the Nino-ish octants. However, the strengthening octant/phase 5 GWO suggests that the MJO may not propigate east quite as fast as the ECM showed this morning. Thus, there are conflicting signals on whether or not we'll stay cold past the first 5-7 days of February. For now I'll go with persistence from my previous posts and continue expecting mainly below normal temperatures through at least mid-February...although will need to closely watch these trends over the next few days. At this point I expect the trough to be centered too far east for strong synoptic snowstorms across the region during much of this cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great write up OH. Looks like another boring stretch is staring us down once again. Snowpack destroying torch then another dry cold snap. Hopeful we pull off a biggie soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great write up OH. Looks like another boring stretch is staring us down once again. Snowpack destroying torch then another dry cold snap. Hopeful we pull off a biggie soon! My hope is getting pretty stale at this point. GFS has now abandoned the post-frontal wave scenario as I suspected it would. Some WSW wrap-around LES looks possible if it manages to stall/retrograde towards Hudsons Bay after becoming vertically stacked. Nothing for the Chicago people though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 OHweather: Any thought to as why the CPC is showing below normal temperatures overlain by above normal precipitation for February? A+ writeup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Great write up OH. Looks like another boring stretch is staring us down once again. Snowpack destroying torch then another dry cold snap. Hopeful we pull off a biggie soon! Thanks. Yeah, outside of the lake belts (which still in most cases haven't seen normal snowfall yet) and perhaps parts of southern IN/central-southern OH who have seen ok snowfall relative to normal, this winter has either been warm/wet or cold/dry. OHweather: Any thought to as why the CPC is showing below normal temperatures overlain by above normal precipitation for February? A+ writeup! My guess is they are expecting an active NW flow into the upper Plains/MW, which may well verify. However, troughing focused over the eastern US, which looks likely to start February, isn't good for big storms, just clippers/smaller systems. There is decent uncertainty into the second week of February and certainly thereafter so that may change at some point. And thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Thanks. Yeah, outside of the lake belts (which still in most cases haven't seen normal snowfall yet) and perhaps parts of southern IN/central-southern OH who have seen ok snowfall relative to normal, this winter has either been warm/wet or cold/dry. My guess is they are expecting an active NW flow into the upper Plains/MW, which may well verify. However, troughing focused over the eastern US, which looks likely to start February, isn't good for big storms, just clippers/smaller systems. There is decent uncertainty into the second week of February and certainly thereafter so that may change at some point. And thanks! IOW same old, same old. Even the clippers have underperformed so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro is a major change from its previous runs with the upper midwest main storm early next week. The new run splits the big western trough, leaving the southern piece in the sw conus while the northern piece sweeps across the upper midwest with little fanfare. Also, the Tuesday torch would be squashed before it started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 IOW same old, same old. Even the clippers have underperformed so far this year. I have a sneaky feeling we'll sneak in something big late February or early March. No scientific reasoning, but it feels like something has to give eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro is a major change from its previous runs with the upper midwest main storm early next week. The new run splits the big western trough, leaving the southern piece in the sw conus while the northern piece sweeps across the upper midwest with little fanfare. Also, the Tuesday torch would be squashed before it started. Pretty drastic shift with how it handles the trough. Torch would be muted especially farther north but still pretty mild farther south. In the words of CT Blizz, toss it for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro is a major change from its previous runs with the upper midwest main storm early next week. The new run splits the big western trough, leaving the southern piece in the sw conus while the northern piece sweeps across the upper midwest with little fanfare. Also, the Tuesday torch would be squashed before it started. Radical change that I don't buy for one moment, nor does any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 12z Euro is a major change from its previous runs with the upper midwest main storm early next week. The new run splits the big western trough, leaving the southern piece in the sw conus while the northern piece sweeps across the upper midwest with little fanfare. Also, the Tuesday torch would be squashed before it started. lol. Now the Euro decides to take up the old GFS fantasy scenario from two nights ago. I need to see at least two consecutive positive runs to bother getting my hopes up now. Does it show any snow potential around the 31st - 1st? I haven't looked yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 lol. Now the Euro decides to take up the old GFS fantasy scenario from two nights ago. I need to see at least two consecutive positive runs to bother getting my hopes up now. Does it show any snow potential around the 31st - 1st? I haven't looked yet. It brings out the cutoff around Groundhog Day, but fittingly, it's a strung out/suppressed mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Some of the 12z GEFS individual runs are interesting in the 132-156 hour range. Probably meaningless, but interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 It brings out the cutoff around Groundhog Day, but fittingly, it's a strung out/suppressed mess. Figures. Good thing the entire run is BS. If I can't get a snowstorm I'm rooting for the torch. Gotta love me some January t-storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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