Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 NOGAPS has it going to phase 9! Good one. That track I haven't seen too often in mid to late winter before. That's a classic late fall, early winter track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 That warm sector is nothing short of ridiculous for January on the GFS there...60s dews into Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Good one. That track I haven't seen too often in mid to late winter before. That's a classic late fall, early winter track. Climo hasn't worked well for this winter either, I understand you want snow, but there are reasons why the GFS shows what it shows. Besides the teleconnections it is due to the phasing of the 2 streams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Land of Model Confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Lol severe next week? Could this winter get any more F'd in the head? 1/7/08 with tornadoes in Wisconsin (including an EF3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 pretty different tune the 0z GFS is singing with that system for early next week compared to the 12z run. Really nice phase and the wave ejects out but really no arctic air until you get up into the nrn plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Climo hasn't worked well for this winter either, I understand you want snow, but there are reasons why the GFS shows what it shows. Besides the teleconnections it is due to the phasing of the 2 streams. If it means getting rid of the split flow, then I'm all in! lol I guess the storm does give some backlash snow to some members here. I read some information a couple days ago in the main forum discussion that the western based block would reappear. Do you see that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 1/7/08 with tornadoes in Wisconsin (including an EF3). At least that was an epic winter snow wise here. Severe this year would add insult to injury to a horrible winter. It might mean that the public thinks twice before hoping for a mild, snowless winter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If it means getting rid of the split flow, then I'm all in! lol I guess the storm does given some backlash snow to some members here. I read some information a couple days ago in the main forum discussion that the western based block would reappear. Do you see that happening? Tough to say at this point to be honest. If it did it would probably be a little after the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Highly doubt a storm is going to cut towards Hudson Bay given the pattern, lol. Eastern lakes cutter maybe. @ BowMe. Looks pretty hopeless for snow no matter where it goes. The models are all saying the next cold lobe will take it's sweet old time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At least that was an epic winter snow wise here. Severe this year would add insult to injury to a horrible winter. It might mean that the public thinks twice before hoping for a mild, snowless winter though. If I see a good tornado in January that is equal to a 35" winter to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 At least that was an epic winter snow wise here. Severe this year would add insult to injury to a horrible winter. It might mean that the public thinks twice before hoping for a mild, snowless winter though. No kidding. I know farmers don't wish for this type of winter weather. --- A west based block is the last thing we need with drought still itching to get back into the subforum further, so hopefully it doesn't transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another setup with big potential but several waves, possibly 3 shown here on this run. Put the southern two as one phased system to come out as one in west TX and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 If I see a good tornado in January that is equal to a 35" winter to me. Cool, terrific, but I am not a storm chaser, and winter is not severe season. I waited all summer for decent storms and they basically never came, a few garden-variety t'storms I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Back to vodka cold at eom re the GFS...if only we can cook up a storm to go with it. NOT a big fan of cold, dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Another setup with big potential but several waves, possibly 3 shown here on this run. Put the southern two as one phased system to come out as one in west TX and I'll be happy. gfsUS_500_avort_168.gif The setup at 144 here in West seems conducive to what you mention here if that lead anomaly doesn't kick out too fast (and especially if it phases as the wave traverses the Four Corners area. This run reminds me a bit of a certain event where the GFS wanted to eject in multiple waves initially (and we'll see if the other models go against or with it), and it was during winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Looks pretty hopeless for snow no matter where it goes. The models are all saying the next cold lobe will take it's sweet old time. I'm starting to not count on anything beyond 72 hours nowadays. Medium range is purely speculation in my book. This guy had some interesting thoughts on this system and is somewhat optimistic for things to turn around in the Midwest. 2nd entry down. http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cool, terrific, but I am not a storm chaser, and winter is not severe season. I waited all summer for decent storms and they basically never came, a few garden-variety t'storms I guess. Guess you'll have to become a snow chaser than. And tell mother nature that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Because the MJO is the be all end all? PNA goes negative before rapidly going positive, AO goes Positive and the NAO goes Neutral, those 3 will be more important than the MJO I'm a little surprised the AO is forecast to go positive, given the effects of the SSW are still being felt. Usually when strong blocking regimes develop, they tend to persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 GFS ensemble at 156 hrs. Looks like pieces of energy strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Nice Bermuda High in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Cool, terrific, but I am not a storm chaser, and winter is not severe season. I waited all summer for decent storms and they basically never came, a few garden-variety t'storms I guess. Just because it is winter doesn't mean severe can't happen. As a matter of fact there has been several instances in the region of this happening in the last 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, no ****. This would be nice unless a feb clipper train sucks up futility records.. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 lol, no ****. This would be nice unless a feb clipper train sucks up futility records.. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html What? He was the one who made the comment that Winter isn't severe season As for that link, looks on par with what I am expecting for Feb, there is a chance we could end up with a cross-polar flow in the first half of the month which could really get things negative for the beginning of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 Just because it is winter doesn't mean severe can't happen. As a matter of fact there has been several instances in the region of this happening in the last 5 years. I'm not that dense that I think it can't happen, I'm just saying I only like severe in season, seeing severe before a decent snowstorm would add insult to injury and severe in winter doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not that dense that I think it can't happen, I'm just saying I only like severe in season, seeing severe before a decent snowstorm would add insult to injury and severe in winter doesn't seem right. Considering the departures in the region any precip is better than none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 I'm not that dense that I think it can't happen, I'm just saying I only like severe in season, seeing severe before a decent snowstorm would add insult to injury and severe in winter doesn't seem right. Euro has a very GFS-like solution, with another huge warm sector, H85 temps to 10˚C almost to Milwaukee. That said, the SE Ridge shifted east a bit would encourage a wider area of moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the hits just keep coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 the hits just keep coming You might melt off that frost that has been accumulating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 23, 2013 Share Posted January 23, 2013 You might melt off that frost that has been accumulating... torches all the way up to Superior, bad news for the LE fluff pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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