wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not really but it is damn annoying to watch prospect potentials dance around from good to bad. At such a long range there is no reason to look at the OP runs by themselves. Don't know about the Euro Ensembles, but most of the GFS ensembles still show a good storm in the region, ranging from a Western Lakes cutter to an OV/Apps runner type system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Lol GFS finally gives Chi a good storm track, and said storm is weak as balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Entire GFS run is good for this area. Nice to see atleast with an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle. So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.) Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11 Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold as say -20 to -15C over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. Well...crap...just opened up the GWO site and they revised the revised GWO this morning lol if that makes sense. But anyways it results in good news for everyone. The warm signal for Feb 7-8 has been removed and replaced with a cold one that indicates a cold shot for the time frame Feb 7-11. Which obviously still matches the xt-RTW in Africa's arrival on Feb 7/8 to the east. I think it may just be the result where the warm sector is smaller so it doesn't show up in analogs but still expect the possibility of pre frontal warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Storm 2 on the Euro is much more delayed this run and much further South. Strange to see the models all jump so much in one motion for both systems. They scheduled 2 reconnaissance flights over the pacific for yesterday and today to sample the southern stream energy that the models are trying to merge with the xt RW that is about to slam into the ridge in the west that suppose to pass over on the 24/25. I think the new data might have caused the sudden jump you noticed in BOTH models. Moving forward again, this time period coming up is no different than the last 2 weeks. Lots going on in the atm. MJO, multiple RWTs, a second CCKW developing etc. Long range is probably going to see major swings run to run like last period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Majority of the ensemble members appear more amplified with the second system than the 12z GFS OP. Euro has a closed low moving into the California coast with a strong s/w cresting the ridge in behind by 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 I need to give you some kudo's as well for your informative posts like this with solid reasoning. Nice work. Thanks! There is certainly a nice learning curve with medium to long range forecasting and personally feel the best way to learn is to analyze things and put my thoughts out there...and hope they work out to some extent (it's been hit or miss but not all bad thus far) Well...crap...just opened up the GWO site and they revised the revised GWO this morning lol if that makes sense. But anyways it results in good news for everyone. The warm signal for Feb 7-8 has been removed and replaced with a cold one that indicates a cold shot for the time frame Feb 7-11. Which obviously still matches the xt-RTW in Africa's arrival on Feb 7/8 to the east. I think it may just be the result where the warm sector is smaller so it doesn't show up in analogs but still expect the possibility of pre frontal warmth. Hmm, well that's good. Jives with my expectation of potential warmth near the beginning of February before predominantly below normal temps return during the first week of February and last through at least the second week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Thanks! There is certainly a nice learning curve with medium to long range forecasting and personally feel the best way to learn is to analyze things and put my thoughts out there...and hope they work out to some extent (it's been hit or miss but not all bad thus far) Hmm, well that's good. Jives with my expectation of potential warmth near the beginning of February before predominantly below normal temps return during the first week of February and last through at least the second week of the month. Ya it's always nice when everyone's LR forecasts jive. Gives a little more confidence in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Why I'm even posting this I have no idea but from 234-240 hours on the Euro, Cyclone to Geos gets buried. The Euro is definitely showing the storm, but a day later than the GFS and its ensembles are tending to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Its a long way off, but it is encouraging to see the Euro ejecting the energy for the EOM storm in one piece. Wouldn't be surprised to see more recon flights going out in the days to come, as it could have nice active warm sector as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Why I'm even posting this I have no idea but from 234-240 hours on the Euro, Cyclone to Geos gets buried. The Euro is definitely showing the storm, but a day later than the GFS and its ensembles are tending to show it. Chicagoland gets close to 12" and still snowing on that run. Crazy QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 12z GFS=snow@dtw Way out there in F land but the system at the end of the month has the 850 line more SE... No money in pushing potential snow storms but having multiple ones on the maps makes me feel beter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Why I'm even posting this I have no idea but from 234-240 hours on the Euro, Cyclone to Geos gets buried. The Euro is definitely showing the storm, but a day later than the GFS and its ensembles are tending to show it. Not going to get excited yet. It's encouraging that this storm has been on the models for quite awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Not going to get excited yet. It's encouraging that this storm has been on the models for quite awhile now. I've already gone ahead and penciled us in for 10"+. Joking aside the models have been dancing around the idea of a good storm in this time frame for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 21, 2013 Share Posted January 21, 2013 Its interesting that the models seem to be suffering from a reverse effect of their usual biases. When it was in fantasy land, the Jan 24-25 event was a way north torchy, rainy event that has trended way colder and south. Same with the Jan 31st event...looked to be a very strong (albeit brief) torch signal now the models trending way south and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Its interesting that the models seem to be suffering from a reverse effect of their usual biases. When it was in fantasy land, the Jan 24-25 event was a way north torchy, rainy event that has trended way colder and south. Same with the Jan 31st event...looked to be a very strong (albeit brief) torch signal now the models trending way south and cold. Well previously the models were holding the ridge at 140W strong. The xt-RWT for the 24-25 weaken the ridge and was able to not be forced as far north as previously forecasted. Once it has weakened the ridge the Jan 31 RWT can exert the same impact on the ridge weakening it even further and allowing the RW to approach the west coast at even a lower lat. allowing it to dig farther south after it crosses the Rockies. Not saying this is what will happen but it's what the models are anticipating as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 GFS still has ORD in the game for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Impressive warm sector on the 00z GFS in the SE near the end of truncation with that second storm system, rarely do you see 1000+ J/kg that widespread this far out in Winter on any model, let alone the low-BL temp biased GFS. 65 dews nearly to Muscle Shoals and HSV in AL, 60s to Cairo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 The 0z GFS holding on to Chicago / Lower Great Lakes track for Jan 31st fantasy storm. I think I might just stop following the weather for a bit lest I jinx it once again. Now I must close my eyes and think happy thoughts... happy thoughts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Per Sarin in a post on the main thread, a recon flight is scheduled for today.... REPRPDWEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTSCARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.1015 AM EST MON 21 JANUARY 2013SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-052I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 A. P46/ DROP 7 (34.0N 132.8W)/ 23/0000Z B. NOAA9 05WSC TRACK46 C. 22/2000Z D. 14 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED. E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 23/0600Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARKS: TRACK P52 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 22/0000Z WILL BE FLOWN AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-051.$$JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS lays an egg and the Euro looks like trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 6z GFS lays an egg and the Euro looks like trash. with the overnight suite of runs it looks like cold air wins out and most of the storm gets suppressed, but this is a complicated pattern coming up, when will the western ridge break down, will the energy get kicked out in pieces, and will the cold air drop in before the storm gets going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Whether or not we get a brief warmup or a more muted mid-30s type of thaw around the Jan 29th system, it's looking like chances are increasing for a cold and active long-range. Back-loaded winter here we come??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 Whether or not we get a brief warmup or a more muted mid-30s type of thaw around the Jan 29th system, it's looking like chances are increasing for a cold and active long-range. Back-loaded winter here we come??? People have been saying this since early december...I've even fallen for it a couple times. Just Saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 People have been saying this since early december...I've even fallen for it a couple times. Just Saying. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From a simple observation standpoint most of the recent modeleing has been warm in the initial stages and the actual systems have been running cooler than expected as of late. There is way more solid evidence that this might be the light at the end of the tunnel ..... By the end of the month we will know !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 People have been saying this since early december...I've even fallen for it a couple times. Just Saying. Well, we did have an active cold and snowy last 10 days to December over much of the region...and then in January so far unfortunately the active was rain and the cold was dry, but they both have showed up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 From a simple observation standpoint most of the recent modeleing has been warm in the initial stages and the actual systems have been running cooler than expected as of late. There is way more solid evidence that this might be the light at the end of the tunnel ..... By the end of the month we will know !!! Excellent point and I agree on all but the "we will know" by the end of the month. I do not trust models past 2 days anymore, you just cant. But TRENDS certainly favor a nice wintry period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 interesting things happening by 111 hours on the GFS. With the upcoming event trending towards a non-event it's really going to open the doors for a brief warmup into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2013 Share Posted January 22, 2013 interesting things happening by 111 hours on the GFS. With the upcoming event trending towards a non-event it's really going to open the doors for a brief warmup into early next week. A brief relaxation/warm up has been on the table for awhile. I don't think that's anything new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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