Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[andyhb]

From Srain in C/W. Recon is going out on the pattern in the Pacific that looks to eventually lead to this bigger one in the medium range.

 

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1055 AM EST SUN 20 JANUARY 2013
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JANUARY 2013
         WSPOD NUMBER.....12-051

 

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

 

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
       A. P52/ DROP 10 (22.3N 129.0W)/ 22/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 04WSC TRACK52
       C. 21/1930Z
       D. 19 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 22/0600Z

 

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. P46/ DROP 7/ 23/0000Z
    3. REMARKS: TRACK P52 WITH A CONTROL TIME OF 21/0000Z
       WILL BE FLOWN AS SCHEDULED ON WSPOD 12-050.

[Harry]

There are some signs of the MJO running into the 2/3 phase by the end of the month.

 

The CFS is garbage. In otherwords, it cannot tell that ever trough is not a "deep freeze".

 

 

Ummm?? What signs? Mind showing them? Thanks.

 

FYI.. Not a single model or ensemble is showing that.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml'>http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

 

 

The MJO is a fickle character this past 2 weeks as everyone has been talking about. The statistical models and VP RMM PCs have kept it alive making it through phase 8 back into the Indian Ocean while the dynamical have continuously killed it off. Which is typical of them. They typically under play the strength of the MJO as it crosses the western hemisphere and weaken it. The weakening is not a true weakening, and is a biproduct of the MJO speeding up over the Western Hemisphere, taking the shape of a strong CCKW. If you look at the U200 product there is an extremely strong CCKW over Africa right now and that might actually be the MJO as indicated by the 850 VP RMM. If that's the case I think we will see the last effects of phase 8 around Feb 8/9 as a shortwave and reinforcement of colder air for Feb. 9-11. And I think what we would see on the WH diagrams everyone looks at is that the models will kill off the MJO in 7 and shoot it through the COD and bring it back out in phase 1/2. Then I believe that scenario would lead us into phase 2/3 for middle of Feb and beyond which would be return to more seasonal temps compared to what the last week of Jan and first week of Feb will bring. IDK though LOL. Like I said the MJO signal is pretty unreliable right now so who knows where the heck it's actually at. The VP200 indicate some type of wave...MJO...IDK just south of the Baja of Mexico.

 

Thanks. Not sure where Angrysummons comes up with this stuff? Starting to get tiresome.

[andyhb]

No more tiresome than sombody saying the "deep freeze" will continue and using the CFS as support.

 

That MJO map speaks for itself. I'm not sure what other proof/back-up evidence you really need, none of the members there have it running into phase 2/3 by the end of Jan.

[Harry]

That MJO map speaks for itself. I'm not sure what other proof/back-up evidence you really need.

 

 

Thank you. I have more then enough used support for my thoughts ( MJO Strato etc ) unlike him who likes to pull stuff out of his arse to show some kind of warm pattern developing.

[andyhb]

Then the MJO map does not speak for itself. What happens then? Weather is more than the MJO.

 

That doesn't have anything to do with it, you were claiming that there were signs it was going to make it to phase 2/3 by the end of January, which is not really evident at all. C'mon dude.

[QVectorman]

I'm not taking sides on either point but if the VP850's are indeed the MJO signal and the strong CCKW over Africa is the MJO...which would make sense since the MJO generally traverses the W Hem as a strong CCKW then Angry's assumptions could be correct and we would see the MJO in phase 2 region by Jan 24, although it isn't showing up on the dynamical WH. And then we would see the teleconnection effects by the end of the first week of Feb. but still phase 2 temp signals are cool. We wouldn't really see warm anomalies until phase 3/4 so that would still push the warmth back through at least mid Feb. which I'm tossing around myself since the PV is forecasted to re-consolidate with in the next 10 days or so. So he could be half correct wrt phase 2 but wrong on temp time frame...but this all hings on WTH the MJO really is 

[Harry]

I'm not taking sides on either point but if the VP850's are indeed the MJO signal and the strong CCKW over Africa is the MJO...which would make sense since the MJO generally traverses the W Hem as a CCKW then Angry's assumptions could be correct and we would see the MJO in phase 2 region by Jan 24. And then see the teleconnection effects by the end of the first week of Feb. but still phase 2 temp signals are cool. We wouldn't really see warm anomalies until phase 3/4 so that would still push the warmth back through at least mid Feb. which I'm tossing around myself since the PV is forecasted to re-consolidate with in the next 10 days or so. 

 

 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I say the chances of that happening are pretty slim? I know the wheeler charts can be off a bit but not usually that far off.

 

My thoughts are close to your own. Thus we get the warmth right when the pattern re-loads again in Feb. Almost never fails unless it is 76-77 which is rare.

[QVectorman]

Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.)  Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. 

 

So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer +5-10F Red-Torch +10-15F

 

 Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11

 

Now this is were we get into to shaky territory and lots of theory in this from myself....The vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate in the next 10 days. As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see warm anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 28....when the PV re-consolidates. I still have S/W's with intrusions of cooler air marked for feb 13-17 and feb 17-20 time frames. I just have a feeling the base state of the 850 temps will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold as say -20 to -15C over the region like we have for the end of Jan. As we move down the road and more GWO data accumulates I will be able to fill in the Feb. 11-20 time frame with more exact dates as I have done with the above. 

[Harry]

Alright guys...this is a CRAZY period coming up...it took me a couple hours to get all these dates straightened out for the exact sequences of events because there are just soooo many signals coming in from the GWO/strat/CCKW/RWT and having to piece the time frames together. It's like a jig saw puzzle...as I said I know some of this is already covered by the GFS and I did cover some of these dates back on Fri night. But here it is again and then extending and adding in some missing pieces of the puzzle.

 

So we have the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Models struggling with whether it merges with a S/W from the south. That's brings the cooler air for Jan 26-29 and then of course the S/W for the 30th on the GFS that supplies the reinforcement of colder air for my Jan 31-Feb 2 time frame (this one looks like a decent shot...as I stated a couple weeks ago) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 3-4 (pre-frontal warmth) ahead of the next RWT (over India) expected to arrive Feb 4/5. (BTW I was able to narrow down the warm spike with the latest GWO numbers and RWT timing.)  Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to). Then Feb 7-8 will be another 5-10 degree pre-frontal warm up ahead of another RWT (currently over Africa) and cooler air moving in behind it for Feb 9-11. 

 

So here are the dates I have for cold and warm periods...I just color codes them. LOL. Aqua-cooler Blue-colder Orange-warmer 5-10F Red-Torch 10-15F

 

 Jan 26-29 Jan 31-Feb 2 Feb 3-4 Feb 5-7 Feb 7-8 Feb 9-11

 

Nice disco..

 

 

Unsure if you have but if you get a chance read up on the QBO especially in winter when it switches from negative- to positive+ and vice versa.. That is another reason i think the cold is here to stay for a while. From what i have read is that the pattern you have leading up to the switch is what you have following it for a while. Could be a month or longer. Atleast when the switch happens in Jan or Feb. Dec has the signal but it is weaker if i recall correctly. I believe HM has also touched on this before as well.

[QVectorman]

Nice disco..

 

 

Unsure if you have but if you get a chance read up on the QBO especially in winter when it switches from negative- to positive+ and vice versa.. That is another reason i think the cold is here to stay for a while. From what i have read is that the pattern you have leading up to the switch is what you have following it for a while. Could be a month or longer. Atleast when the switch happens in Jan or Feb. Dec has the signal but it is weaker if i recall correctly. I believe HM has also touched on this before as well.

Could be...I look at the QBO pre season but you have the 30 and 50 levels and I would have to sit down and look at it for a while...I can't keep it all straight LOL, There's QBO with solar flux QBO with sun spots. The 30mb influence vs the 50 mb. Ugh! My head spins. I need another year or two winters to grasp all the nuances of the QBO before factoring it in. But you might be right. If you are I will be a believer and start looking into it more over the summer and add that in next time. 

[Hoosier]

What if it does? Which means it is very evident.

If you're going to make a claim about signs pointing to the MJO going into phases 2/3, it's not too much to ask for some evidence.

[Stebo]

If you're going to make a claim about signs pointing to the MJO going into phases 2/3, it's not too much to ask for some evidence.

 

There isn't any, angrysummons is just being the proverbial wet blanket is with 0 reasoning behind his calls as usual. Essentially the reverse weenie.

[Justin]

The gfs paints a nice rainstorm here the end of january.... So it doesn't want to play ball with a colder solution. Sucks for here since we'd be in line to get a decent snow... Gonna watch the euro models on this system too. I get the feeling we're gonna see a lot of transient cold from here on out, certainly not any lengthy shots. Bet there is a significant ice storm close by in the next couple weeks.

[daddylonglegs]

 

Looks awfully mild... for many here

[Geos]

Looks awfully mild... for many here

 

Yeah, it's the NAEFS too! Large potential for a bust is the warm air placement is a 100-200 miles too far north.

Personally I think the cold air in Canada will spill over the border further.

 

240 hr on the GFS looks really interesting for WI in particular.

[OHweather]

1/20/13 Mid-Range Thoughts…Arctic air has arrived…is it here to stay or will we see a moderating trend?

 

 

Extensive +PNA/-AO/-EPO ridging has displaced a polar vortex far south towards the northern Great Lakes…allowing the coldest air in at least two years to come pouring into much of the sub-forum…this is firing up the lake effect snow machine and trying to make up for lost ground in the lake belts…although is a quiet pattern elsewhere.

 

 

In my previous discussion I mentioned the MJO trying to pulse eastward this week before another pulse forming over Africa/the Indian Ocean attempts to take over…creating a +PNA pattern that becomes more neutral if not negative for a time later this week before re-orienting into a +PNA as the next MJO pulse comes east.

 

Currently, there is strong convective activity near and east of the dateline which supports a continued strong +PNA into this week…with more convection back over Africa. The question is will the lead area of convection continue to propagate, or will we see the convection west of the dateline dominate, supporting a fall of the PNA in 7 days or so?

 

 

The GFS and Euro both show the MJO kind of meandering in phase 7 near phase 6 for the rest of the week before attempting to propagate east. Does this mean the models kill the convection currently east of the dateline, or are the graphics having trouble trying to diagnose have one area of convection east of the dateline and more west of the dateline, resulting in kind of an average until the convection all moves east?

 

 

The 250mb height anomalies over the Pacific off of the GFS valid Wednesday suggest dueling areas of convection…with above normal tropical 250mb height anomalies stretching from east of the dateline to well west of the dateline. However, with the La-Niniesq circulation remaining over Asia, the western area of convection really enhances the Asian-Pacific jet over the western Pacific to the north of the convection, meaning the convection west of the dateline should have increasing influence later this week as the convection east of the dateline continues to weaken. This should cause the PNA to fall beginning late this week, and the 8-10 models now squarely show this, with strong ridging into the Aleutians and lower heights near the west coast of the continent:

 

 

This matches well with a phase 7 MJO which is what the wheeler plots show through the week before potential propagation eastward thereafter. Before this moderation however, the PNA should remain positive in conjunction with a –AO, allowing another good blast of arctic air at the end of this week as has been discussed:

 

 

This shot won’t feature a large PV displacing to just north of the Lakes so it should be less severe than the air we are currently dealing with, however it will be well below normal.

 

 

In my past couple of discussions I have thrown around the idea that the GWO/GLAAM is slowly trending towards more Nino like numbers, and that trend appears to be continuing. This bolsters the idea of the next MJO pulse propagating eastward as the GFS/ECM are indicating near late January, which means we may see the ridging shown above on the 8-10 day models into the Aleutians evolve into a large +PNA/-EPO type setup at some point during the first week of February.

 

 

The lower levels of the stratosphere are continuing to warm, suggesting the previous SSW event is still in the process of propagating downward. In my previous discussion I mentioned a tendency for, after previous similar warming events that peaked in the first half of January at 10mb, for the –AO anomaly to develop into a –NAO anomaly as we head into early February, as seen on a composite map below:

 

 

The question is will this occur this year?

 

In the short term, no…

 

However, based on what I discussed with the Pacific above:

1. I expect the +PNA to weaken late this week and become negative for a time next weekend into the last few days of January. This should support a gradual warm up across the sub-forum beginning in 8 days or so.
2. As the next MJO pulse propagates east, which I believe is more likely thanks to more Nino like GLAAM numbers emerging, the PNA will go positive again and the troughing will shift east during the first week of February. This may be a good window for cutters and perhaps an OV runner if we can time the waves right.
3. As this occurs the cutters will raise heights over eastern Canada/Greenland and help coax a –NAO by the second week of February, with a +PNA resulting in a trough locked in over the eastern US for the second week of February.

So, like I said in my previous discussion, we will stay cold through this week for the most part in the subforum, with things warming from west to east after next weekend. Last week I was a bit uncertain on this warming but I do think we see a brief warm period within a few days of February 1. After that however troughing shifts east and there may be a more active STJ and potential for a storm or two across the region as this occurs before we return to more deep troughing over the eastern US and more of a clipper type setup over the subforum by the second week of February.

[Minnesota Meso]

With respect to February, while clearing not as informed as QVectorman or OHweather , I can a least look at some of the models and draw a conclusion as  which is more likely.

 

Lets start here:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/ustmp2m_Lead1.html

 

As you can see, the CFSV2 plus the CMC 1 and 2 are shown here.  In addition to that there is the NASA model, the NCAR model, the GFDL model plus the NMME which is a ensemble of the above 6 models.  In addition is the IMME, which as best as I can tell, is the ensemble of the long range forecast for Met France, the UK Met and the ECMWF. Of course by agreement between the US. and the ECMWF, the ECMWF can not be shown on it's own to the general public.

 

And then for good measure lets throw in the Korean model:

 

http://web.kma.go.kr/eng/include/popup_img.jsp?url=/eng/irwp/down/t8a_mon.gif&width=850&height=1100

 

 

looks to me as if Angry should be wearing the NCAR hat to me.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Looking like a torch is moving in come 144 hours on the 0z GFS

[michsnowfreak]

Looking like a torch is moving in come 144 hours on the 0z GFS

On the contrary....this run turns out to be the furthest south the GFS has been with the Jan 30-31 storm in days, so the warmth doesnt get nearly as far north.

[MidwestChaser]

GFS looks to be much further SE with the end of Jan storm.

[andyhb]

GFS looks to be much further SE with the end of Jan storm.

 

It's rather close to 18z in terms of latitude at 216, but slower.

[MidwestChaser]

It's rather close to 18z in terms of latitude, but slower.

 

This run doesn't have it cutting through NW IL.

[andyhb]

This run doesn't have it cutting through NW IL.

 

Yeah, should've added at 216.

[Chicago WX]

lol, even the truncated 0z GFS tries to screw Chicago. Somehow the fantasy storm post 192 hours tries to do so, for all intents and purposes. 

[Geos]

lol, even the truncated 0z GFS tries to screw Chicago. Somehow the fantasy storm post 192 hours tries to do so, for all intents and purposes. 

 

LES potential exists more so with this run. Definitely a colder run... doesn't even really warm up here.

[Stebo]

Storm 2 on the Euro is much more delayed this run and much further South. Strange to see the models all jump so much in one motion for both systems.

[hm8]

Strange to see the models all jump so much in one motion for both systems.

Is it really though?

[Harry]

1/20/13 Mid-Range Thoughts…Arctic air has arrived…is it here to stay or will we see a moderating trend?

 

current 500.gif

 

Extensive +PNA/-AO/-EPO ridging has displaced a polar vortex far south towards the northern Great Lakes…allowing the coldest air in at least two years to come pouring into much of the sub-forum…this is firing up the lake effect snow machine and trying to make up for lost ground in the lake belts…although is a quiet pattern elsewhere.

 

current global IR.gif

 

In my previous discussion I mentioned the MJO trying to pulse eastward this week before another pulse forming over Africa/the Indian Ocean attempts to take over…creating a +PNA pattern that becomes more neutral if not negative for a time later this week before re-orienting into a +PNA as the next MJO pulse comes east.

 

Currently, there is strong convective activity near and east of the dateline which supports a continued strong +PNA into this week…with more convection back over Africa. The question is will the lead area of convection continue to propagate, or will we see the convection west of the dateline dominate, supporting a fall of the PNA in 7 days or so?

 

MJO ecm-gfs.JPG

 

The GFS and Euro both show the MJO kind of meandering in phase 7 near phase 6 for the rest of the week before attempting to propagate east. Does this mean the models kill the convection currently east of the dateline, or are the graphics having trouble trying to diagnose have one area of convection east of the dateline and more west of the dateline, resulting in kind of an average until the convection all moves east?

 

GFS 250 66.gif

 

The 250mb height anomalies over the Pacific off of the GFS valid Wednesday suggest dueling areas of convection…with above normal tropical 250mb height anomalies stretching from east of the dateline to well west of the dateline. However, with the La-Niniesq circulation remaining over Asia, the western area of convection really enhances the Asian-Pacific jet over the western Pacific to the north of the convection, meaning the convection west of the dateline should have increasing influence later this week as the convection east of the dateline continues to weaken. This should cause the PNA to fall beginning late this week, and the 8-10 models now squarely show this, with strong ridging into the Aleutians and lower heights near the west coast of the continent:

 

8-10.gif

 

This matches well with a phase 7 MJO which is what the wheeler plots show through the week before potential propagation eastward thereafter. Before this moderation however, the PNA should remain positive in conjunction with a –AO, allowing another good blast of arctic air at the end of this week as has been discussed:

 

ECM ENS 120.png

 

This shot won’t feature a large PV displacing to just north of the Lakes so it should be less severe than the air we are currently dealing with, however it will be well below normal.

 

Total AAM.gif

 

In my past couple of discussions I have thrown around the idea that the GWO/GLAAM is slowly trending towards more Nino like numbers, and that trend appears to be continuing. This bolsters the idea of the next MJO pulse propagating eastward as the GFS/ECM are indicating near late January, which means we may see the ridging shown above on the 8-10 day models into the Aleutians evolve into a large +PNA/-EPO type setup at some point during the first week of February.

 

70mb graph.gif

 

The lower levels of the stratosphere are continuing to warm, suggesting the previous SSW event is still in the process of propagating downward. In my previous discussion I mentioned a tendency for, after previous similar warming events that peaked in the first half of January at 10mb, for the –AO anomaly to develop into a –NAO anomaly as we head into early February, as seen on a composite map below:

 

strat.png

 

The question is will this occur this year?

 

In the short term, no…

 

However, based on what I discussed with the Pacific above:

1. I expect the +PNA to weaken late this week and become negative for a time next weekend into the last few days of January. This should support a gradual warm up across the sub-forum beginning in 8 days or so.
2. As the next MJO pulse propagates east, which I believe is more likely thanks to more Nino like GLAAM numbers emerging, the PNA will go positive again and the troughing will shift east during the first week of February. This may be a good window for cutters and perhaps an OV runner if we can time the waves right.
3. As this occurs the cutters will raise heights over eastern Canada/Greenland and help coax a –NAO by the second week of February, with a +PNA resulting in a trough locked in over the eastern US for the second week of February.

So, like I said in my previous discussion, we will stay cold through this week for the most part in the subforum, with things warming from west to east after next weekend. Last week I was a bit uncertain on this warming but I do think we see a brief warm period within a few days of February 1. After that however troughing shifts east and there may be a more active STJ and potential for a storm or two across the region as this occurs before we return to more deep troughing over the eastern US and more of a clipper type setup over the subforum by the second week of February.

 

I need to give you some kudo's as well for your informative posts like this with solid reasoning. Nice work.

 

 

Storm 2 on the Euro is much more delayed this run and much further South. Strange to see the models all jump so much in one motion for both systems.

 

Why i have been suggesting to people not to jump on anything beyond 120hrs. Heck look at the late week system which has changed course again and now back to being suppressed garbage and it happened inside of 120hrs. Even the so called mighty euro has jumped ship. Not saying you have.

[Stebo]

Is it really though?

 

Not really but it is damn annoying to watch prospect potentials dance around from good to bad.

[frostfern]

On the contrary....this run turns out to be the furthest south the GFS has been with the Jan 30-31 storm in days, so the warmth doesnt get nearly as far north.

 

Both GFS and Euro are both showing a whole train of shortwaves.  It's a complicated situation.  There will be a juicy storm eventually but who knows where it will track and how much cold there will be to work with.  If there is a brief warmup a few days ahead with the PV retreating, hopefully the stronger Pacific H5 low can hang back over the SW US until the colder temps manage to settle back south.  It's all still out in fantasy land though.