Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[mnweather]

Agree with that totally. There's more accumulation happening then meets the eye.

Yep, I agree with you.  I think they changed it this fall.  It looked better before.

[snowstormcanuck]

Hopefully we will see some lake snow off of Huron this week. Yesterday's snow was a surprise after all. By the way, I think the weather network is underdoing the upcoming cold. They have highs of minus 10 forecasted for Tuesday while environment Canada, which usually has a warm bias, is forecasting a high of minus 15 Celsius in markham on the same day.

 

Models have been hinting at a sfc trough/mesolow combination next week either over us or just to our south. There's a low probability that the flow might turn easterly for at least a time with those features.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Models have been hinting at a sfc trough/mesolow combination next week either over us or just to our south. There's a low probability that the flow might turn easterly for at least a time with those features.

That's what I'm hoping for!

[QVectorman]

Hey fella just a quick up date got the revised GWO numbers in earlier today as HM and I have been eluding to lots of chaos in the atm this week especially and the up coming week so I take extra precaution with the GWO numbers to get the revised ones because they have been looking pretty squirrely and the revised are lagging by about 2 days and the GWO has forecast time of 14-23 days so being that some signals can only go out 14 and I'm already 2 days behind the GFS 16 days is already ahead of me LOL. Anyways, what's shaken out with the strat and GWO analogs for the last week of Jan and early Feb. As talked about the other day, the xt RTW that was in the pacific back on wednesday appears it will still be coming over the ridge while breaking the ridge down a bit and still on schedule to arrive late 24 early 25th east of the MS. Bring cooler air in for Jan 26-29 and a reinforcement of colder air for Jan 31-Feb 2 (this one looks like a decent shot) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 2-4 with another S/W-shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to) and S/W cooler air Feb 7-11. There is a xt RW over India right now that I circled that times out to arriving Feb 4/5 which adds credence to the Feb. 5-7 time frame for a S/W moving through the East Coast. These dates were more time pertinent and I was too busy to post this, this morning. But I will post thoughts for beyond Feb. 11 on Monday when more ppl are back from the weekend. 

[OHweather]

Hey fella just a quick up date got the revised GWO numbers in earlier today as HM and I have been eluding to lots of chaos in the atm this week especially and the up coming week so I take extra precaution with the GWO numbers to get the revised ones because they have been looking pretty squirrely and the revised are lagging by about 2 days and the GWO has forecast time of 14-23 days so being that some signals can only go out 14 and I'm already 2 days behind the GFS 16 days is already ahead of me LOL. Anyways, what's shaken out with the strat and GWO analogs for the last week of Jan and early Feb I'm seeing a shortwave-cold shot for Jan 26-29 a reinforcement of colder air for Jan 31-Feb 2 (this one looks like a decent shot) and then a 5-10 degree warm up for Feb 2-4 with another S/W-shot of cold Feb 5-7 (decent shot of cold here to) and S/W cooler air Feb 7-11. These dates were more time pertinent and I was too busy to post this, this morning. But I will post thoughts for beyond Feb. 11 on Monday when more ppl are back from the weekend. 

I was looking at the GWO possibly moving towards more Nino like phases supporting a nice MJO propagation in early February in my write-up on Tuesday. I'll take a closer look again tomorrow but am I interpreting that right? I'm kind of trying to learn some of this on the fly lol. That's what a boring pattern will do to you I guess

[michsnowfreak]

The GFS goes way colder and further south with the Thu-Fri event. Widespread snow event for the Lakes/OV, heaviest in IN/OH

[snowlover2]

The GFS goes way colder and further south with the Thu-Fri event. Widespread snow event for the Lakes/OV, heaviest in IN/OH

Lock it in!!!

[QVectorman]

The GFS goes way colder and further south with the Thu-Fri event. Widespread snow event for the Lakes/OV, heaviest in IN/OH

Ya I amended my post...to incorporate my post from wed. where I talked about the RWT in the pacific. The model seems to have the RW break down the ridge and is therefore able to coming in further south rather than having to go all the way up into Saskatchewan or what ever. 

[QVectorman]

I was looking at the GWO possibly moving towards more Nino like phases supporting a nice MJO propagation in early February in my write-up on Tuesday. I'll take a closer look again tomorrow but am I interpreting that right? I'm kind of trying to learn some of this on the fly lol. That's what a boring pattern will do to you I guess

I looked into forecasting the GWO last winter and couldn't find anyone that could nor was able too find any signs of ways to predict it accurately myself beside the Mt. tq and friction tq. but still it wasn't anything that really added value to the forecast. Don't know if that's what you were getting at? If you could have a GWO forecast even such as that of the MJO, and was even as accurate as the MJO forecasts...which isn't the best either lol, it would still add tremendous value to long range I think. 

[Harry]

I looked into forecasting the GWO last winter and couldn't find anyone that could nor was able too find any signs of ways to predict it accurately myself beside the Mt. tq and friction tq. but still it wasn't anything that really added value to the forecast. Don't know if that's what you were getting at? If you could have a GWO forecast even such as that of the MJO, and was even as accurate as the MJO forecasts...which isn't the best either lol, it would still add tremendous value to long range I think. 

 

Speaking of the MJO.. With it not going anywhere anytime fast ( looks to be in 7 and perhaps 8 down the road) i suspect any warmth we see on models will get pushed back/away. 

[OHweather]

I looked into forecasting the GWO last winter and couldn't find anyone that could nor was able too find any signs of ways to predict it accurately myself beside the Mt. tq and friction tq. but still it wasn't anything that really added value to the forecast. Don't know if that's what you were getting at? If you could have a GWO forecast even such as that of the MJO, and was even as accurate as the MJO forecasts...which isn't the best either lol, it would still add tremendous value to long range I think. 

I was talking about the current trends of the GWO. I haven't really seen any GWO forecasts per se but I'm still learning how to interpret current trends at this point, as even understanding the current GWO and how it's trending seems to be really helpful for medium range forecasting.

[QVectorman]

Speaking of the MJO.. With it not going anywhere anytime fast ( looks to be in 7 and perhaps 8 down the road) i suspect any warmth we see on models will get pushed back/away. 

Well I expect that brief interlude sometime between Feb 2-4 but it will be small warm up and short. After that I have a few more cold shots showing up but I was going to hit on those in a write up on Monday or something. Beyond that I agree with you that as I said 2 good shots of cold look to be on the horizon. straddling Feb. 2-4 period. So I like your thoughts with extreme warmth being delayed until at least Feb 7...which is as far as my GWO analog takes me...beyond that is strat signals that aren't as accurate for warmth. Also pondering if the PV reconsolidating around the 29th will put the breaks on the pockets of cold air coming down out of the PV's...and we will see the -AO start to gradually rise and climb up into positive territory. I'm thinking there will be about a 2-3 week lag for the AO to really respond...which by that time it will be mid Feb and I think the second half of Feb could be above normal again. 

[frostfern]

Here's an interesting link.

 

http://weather.ou.edu/~scavallo/images/real_time/trop_theta_contours/trop_theta_contours.html

 

You can see there was a major bomb-low that formed off the coast of Japan around the 14th.  The wrapping up of this low helped set up a rex block over far eastern Siberia by the 18th.  This is currently translating to a digging trough over north America over the next couple days.  The Pacific jet eventually manages to undercut the block bringing the next potential system late next week, and probably another short on it's heels a few days later.  The GFS might not be doing a good job determining how fast the Siberia block dissipates, and that might be what determines the amount of reenforcing cold later next week. 

[Thundersnow12]

Euro puts down around .25"-.30" liquid at ORD/MKE/GRR with that system next thursday night/friday and with looks to be really good ratios, talking a 3-4" locally more event.

[wisconsinwx]

Euro puts down around .25"-.30" liquid at ORD/MKE/GRR with that system next thursday night/friday and with looks to be really good ratios, talking a 3-4" locally more event.

 

Lock it in for 72 more hours and I will start to buy it, but until then, it is no different to me than the last dozen threats which were difficult to rely on.

[A-L-E-K]

Euro puts down around .25"-.30" liquid at ORD/MKE/GRR with that system next thursday night/friday and with looks to be really good ratios, talking a 3-4" locally more event.

 

 

It's a nice event and the lake effect signal after is pretty impressive for this range on the euro.  something to watch

[DAFF]

Watching and hoping Lucy doesn't pull the ball away..... Again. For some reason I have a feeling this system will be different. Why ?? This cold air mass too so long to develope I think it might be harder to dig out too when the warm storm arrives. Perhaps the Pacific low could crash into the cold and the cold air win out. Just an observation and thought.

 

The upcomming cold will be the first true winter chill since.... I can't even remember, might even have to buy a winter coat too!!

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Watching and hoping Lucy doesn't pull the ball away..... Again. For some reason I have a feeling this system will be different. Why ?? This cold air mass too so long to develope I think it might be harder to dig out too when the warm storm arrives. Perhaps the Pacific low could crash into the cold and the cold air win out. Just an observation and thought.

 

The upcomming cold will be the first true winter chill since.... I can't even remember, might even have to buy a winter coat too!!

You didn't have a winter coat in January 2009 and 2011?

 

Then again, they don't call extreme southwestern Ontario "Carolinian Canada" for nothing!

[Thundersnow12]

GFS has been amazingly consistent for about the past 2-3 days with a big cutter around the 31st.

[andyhb]

GFS has been amazingly consistent for about the past 2-3 days with a big cutter around the 31st.

 

That thing has a ton of potential, warm and cold sector, if anything close to what the GFS has been putting out for 6 runs or so now verifies.

[Harry]

CFS keeps the deep freeze going well into Feb now which is no shock to me. Chances are higher then normal we stay below normal ( cannot rule out the typical day above normal ahead of a front ofcourse ) all the way into April. That is based on past occurrences with the Strato warming event and the QBO switching from -negative to +positive in Jan or Feb. Typically what pattern you have leading up and during the switch is what you get following it for a month or two or even longer in some cases. NOT ALWAYS but usually how that works.

[csnavywx]

All three major globals and their ensembles are hinting at a raging (but relatively brief) torch in the D8-D10 timeframe. If that follow-up major shortwave really does track over the central Great Plains with the gulf wide open, watch out. That would be almost a textbook warm-sector cool season severe event.

[Stebo]

All three major globals and their ensembles are hinting at a raging (but relatively brief) torch in the D8-D10 timeframe. If that follow-up major shortwave really does track over the central Great Plains with the gulf wide open, watch out. That would be almost a textbook warm-sector cool season severe event.

 

Yeah I have been watching this one for the last few days, really surprising the consistency the models have been showing with this prospect system, the GFS especially. I would completely agree that this has the potential of a severe weather event as far North as maybe Southern IL as it stands currently.

[michsnowfreak]

CFS keeps the deep freeze going well into Feb now which is no shock to me. Chances are higher then normal we stay below normal ( cannot rule out the typical day above normal ahead of a front ofcourse ) all the way into April. That is based on past occurrences with the Strato warming event and the QBO switching from -negative to +positive in Jan or Feb. Typically what pattern you have leading up and during the switch is what you get following it for a month or two or even longer in some cases. NOT ALWAYS but usually how that works.

Sounds good. Actually, for as inconsistent as the CFS usually is, it has been quite consistent saying the cold lasts through Feb. And yes, everyone needs to remember, that even a much colder than normal month will usually have a few mild days, just like our warm winter last year had a few very cold days. The only thing that sucks is youd want to keep those snowcover-eating 1 or 2 day torches away.

[MidwestChaser]

That thing has a ton of potential, warm and cold sector, if anything close to what the GFS has been putting out for 6 runs or so now verifies.

 

I'm going to be pissed if that cuts over me.

[andyhb]

Yeah I have been watching this one for the last few days, really surprising the consistency the models have been showing with this prospect system, the GFS especially. I would completely agree that this has the potential of a severe weather event as far North as maybe Southern IL as it stands currently.

 

12z run still on it, albeit there are different solutions (expected being 9-10 days out of course), but still a strong storm system, with a potentially bulky warm sector to work with.

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro shows a real nice torch after the late week storm/cold.  Any snowcover wouldn't last long if it pans out.

[andyhb]

Euro apparently came on board as well with the 12z run.

[Geos]

Fwiw: Will probably be looking at a phase 8 MJO next week which doesn't connect well with a mild flow in the NC US.

 

Let's see what the EURO ENS show.

[QVectorman]

There are some signs of the MJO running into the 2/3 phase by the end of the month.

 

The CFS is garbage. In otherwords, it cannot tell that ever trough is not a "deep freeze".

The MJO is a fickle character this past 2 weeks as everyone has been talking about. The statistical models and VP RMM PCs have kept it alive making it through phase 8 back into the Indian Ocean while the dynamical have continuously killed it off. Which is typical of them. They typically under play the strength of the MJO as it crosses the western hemisphere and weaken it. The weakening is not a true weakening, and is a biproduct of the MJO speeding up over the Western Hemisphere, taking the shape of a strong CCKW. If you look at the U200 product there is an extremely strong CCKW over Africa right now and that might actually be the MJO as indicated by the 850 VP RMM. If that's the case I think we will see the last effects of phase 8 around Feb 8/9 as a shortwave and reinforcement of colder air for Feb. 9-11. And I think what we would see on the WH diagrams everyone looks at is that the models will kill off the MJO in 7 and shoot it through the COD and bring it back out in phase 1/2. Then I believe that scenario would lead us into phase 2/3 for middle of Feb and beyond which would be return to more seasonal temps compared to what the last week of Jan and first week of Feb will bring. IDK though LOL. Like I said the MJO signal is pretty unreliable right now so who knows where the heck it's actually at. The VP200 indicate some type of wave...MJO...IDK just south of the Baja of Mexico.