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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


IWXwx

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0z EURO with an ugly look by D10.

Looks like it would be temporary as it would probably cool down again behind that system getting ready to eject into the Plains.

This might be a tough pattern if you like significant snow but I don't see any reason for panic in terms of temps. Not gonna be wall to wall cold but I'd wager that cold will outduel warm.

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The 12z Euro looks pretty interesting for the 24th/25th of next week. A nice bowling ball-type system moving across south of the lower lakes with lots of cold air still in place.

 

Yep, would be a nice WWA/low end WSW event verbatim for most of S Michigan, and a couple inches for NE Illinois/SE Wisconsin with pretty good ratios in the latter areas given they are well entrenched in the cold air.

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12z Euro has like .2 qpf at ORD for that event...I'd trust that over the snow map. Not that it matters this far out.

Whoops, just posted about this in the record thread. But yeah, though there will be plenty more changes, this run verbatim would be a few inches of snow for NE IL.

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yeah I can't stand that site's snow map.

 

I'm pretty sure the wunderground Euro snowfall maps used to show accumulation in tenths of an inch up to an inch, then 1, 2, 3 inches, etc.  Sometime in the last month or two it changed to only show 1+ inches in any 3 hr period.  A lot of lighter, but still accumulating snow, is now not being  shown.  I don't know why they would make that change.

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I'm pretty sure the wunderground Euro snowfall maps used to show accumulation in tenths of an inch up to an inch, then 1, 2, 3 inches, etc.  Sometime in the last month or two it changed to only show 1+ inches in any 3 hr period.  A lot of lighter, but still accumulating snow, is now not being  shown.  I don't know why they would make that change.

 

 

You're correct and it's stupid. I suspect that it was a half assed attempt to address the criticism that the maps were too generous with snowfall amounts.

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Hopefully we will see some lake snow off of Huron this week. Yesterday's snow was a surprise after all.

By the way, I think the weather network is underdoing the upcoming cold. They have highs of minus 10 forecasted for Tuesday while environment Canada, which usually has a warm bias, is forecasting a high of minus 15 Celsius in markham on the same day.

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Um, I dropped acid earlier this afternoon, so maybe it's that, but it kinda looks like the 18z GFS doesn't have ANY D7 storm.

 

The vort was there, just further North and got sheared apart as it hit the confluence associated with the Polar vortex across Eastern Canada. Kind of funny that the Euro came South and the GFS went North. GGEM was even further South than the Euro.

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Strange, though it looks like 2" or so here is accurate.  Detroit and Toledo looked to receive around 0.5" or so, and most if not all was frozen. That's a legitimate event, of course could be different for your microclimate.

This.

 

The 12z EURO had around 0.5" qpf falling with temps in the upper teens to low 20s. That is a warning criteria snowstorm.

 

Will it change a hundred times? Probably...but verbatum the 12z scenario is great for a cold snowstorm here.

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You're correct and it's stupid. I suspect that it was a half assed attempt to address the criticism that the maps were too generous with snowfall amounts.

 

Agree with that totally. There's more accumulation happening then meets the eye.

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