michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Recent signs looks like a much more active weather pattern may be in store for late jan and feb. Trumps bitter cold for sure. I think below normal temps will be the rule through feb, but not without some mild days. Perhaps we can do a repeat of the late december period and lay down several weeks of snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 lolz, just saw 192. It found a way. I think that setup could be favorable for ice, looking at the surface charts with the high in Quebec. It isn't snow but I think there would be a wintry flavor to that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Recent signs looks like a much more active weather pattern may be in store for late jan and feb. Trumps bitter cold for sure. I think below normal temps will be the rule through feb, but not without some mild days. Perhaps we can do a repeat of the late december period and lay down several weeks of snowpack. Not trying to **** all over your optimism, but 2 weeks ago mid-January looked like it'd be rocking with lots of storms traversing through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think that setup could be favorable for ice, looking at the surface charts with the high in Quebec. It isn't snow but I think there would be a wintry flavor to that system. I agree. Verbatim it's not a disaster.but still....looking at that downstream confluence at 168 you'd never think 24 hours later a sfc low would be over GRB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I agree. Verbatim it's not a disaster.but still....looking at that downstream confluence at 168 you'd never think 24 hours later a sfc low would be over GRB. Euro is having a hard time figuring out which stream that will be dominant with that system, at first it looked like the Southern stream at 168 then it jumped to the Northern stream at 192. It probably isn't worth the keystrokes to get cute with the details at this junction anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not trying to **** all over your optimism, but 2 weeks ago mid-January looked like it'd be rocking with lots of storms traversing through the OV. Other factors like the LRC lend credence to an active period as well (what with the Twin Cities storm in early-mid December, which could correlate to one of these, then the big storm a week and a half later in Wisconsin/Iowa). I didn't expect early/mid January to be very active when I was looking ahead in late December, but I was expecting things to pick up the last week or so of January, which looks like it may come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Other factors like the LRC lend credence to an active period as well (what with the Twin Cities storm in early-mid December, which could correlate to one of these, then the big storm a week and a half later in Wisconsin/Iowa). I didn't expect early/mid January to be very active when I was looking ahead in late December, but I was expecting things to pick up the last week or so of January, which looks like it may come to fruition. MJO has recently been in phase 6 & 7, which typically correlates to wetter wx for the OV and Lakes. That's why when the GFS was showing run total QPF of like 3" for me two weeks ago, I didn't think it was too outlandish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Other factors like the LRC lend credence to an active period as well (what with the Twin Cities storm in early-mid December, which could correlate to one of these, then the big storm a week and a half later in Wisconsin/Iowa). I didn't expect early/mid January to be very active when I was looking ahead in late December, but I was expecting things to pick up the last week or so of January, which looks like it may come to fruition. Do you guys take the LRC very seriously? I have my doubts about it. I guess I havent paid much attention to it though so I can't be real certain on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The storm on the 25th is looking a bit better for Ontario, although some improvement is still needed. We could see freezing, rain, followed by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Do you guys take the LRC very seriously? I have my doubts about it. I guess I havent paid much attention to it though so I can't be real certain on that. Not entirely, but it does seem to make sense when you think that the major winter storms around this region in past years have occurred at 40-50 day intervals, usually one in early to mid December then another one around early February. Also, the major storms this fall and winter have frequently occurred at the suggested 50-52 day interval for the cycle, so the general pattern at times gives the theory some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not trying to **** all over your optimism, but 2 weeks ago mid-January looked like it'd be rocking with lots of storms traversing through the OV. ? I do not remember any runs showing a rockin time of snow. As far as I can remember everything was about the eventual arctic intrusion and hopes that it wouldnt be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ? I do not remember any runs showing a rockin time of snow. As far as I can remember everything was about the eventual arctic intrusion and hopes that it wouldnt be dry. There was optimism for a couple of systems (perhaps decent cutters) affecting the region mid-month, and it quickly turned to crap/quick arctic shot with little to no snowcover that we're on the verge of. I wasn't very optimistic about that time period myself, but some were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ? I do not remember any runs showing a rockin time of snow. As far as I can remember everything was about the eventual arctic intrusion and hopes that it wouldnt be dry. The storm which affected SNE yesterday and the storm affecting the southern Mid Atlantic today/tomorrow were modeled as OV/Apps runners 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro is having a hard time figuring out which stream that will be dominant with that system, at first it looked like the Southern stream at 168 then it jumped to the Northern stream at 192. It probably isn't worth the keystrokes to get cute with the details at this junction anyways. It looks like a big storm for northern lower and the UP. If it manages to wrap up like currently shown there might be some wrap-around lake enhanced snowfall on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 It looks like a big storm for northern lower and the UP. If it manages to wrap up like currently shown there might be some wrap-around lake enhanced snowfall on the back side. Yup...the pattern this year refuses to allow cold air to be pulled further south into these Great Lakes storms. I actually am not sure we will get any significant snowstorms this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yup...the pattern this year refuses to allow cold air to be pulled further south into these Great Lakes storms. I actually am not sure we will get any significant snowstorms this winter. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. See Dec 20th or Dec 26th, there already have been some significant snowstorms....and Im sure there will be many more in the next 3 months. Just hope all can get involved. The end of the week is nowhere near set in stone by the way. The last several OP GFS runs and the 12z Euro would have a wintry to wet ending as flurries scenario, but the 00z euro, the 12z GEM, and the latest GFS ensemble mean are much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z EURO with an ugly look by D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z EURO with an ugly look by D10. Thats the possible relaxation period that some of the mets over at the NE forum are talking about. Should be brief however with cold to take hold again by very early february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z EURO with an ugly look by D10. Indeed. Displacment is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro is just prepping for the February/March torch. Might be time to punt until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Euro is just prepping for the February/March torch. Might be time to punt until next winter. Again alek chill. Winter ain't over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 The 6z GFS is a hot mess. Arctic / legit cold retreats well north of the border. Kinda stuck in a no mans land pattern as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Again alek chill. Winter ain't over Winter hasn't started for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Winter hasn't started for him. I know and I would feel the same way if I was living there but you have to imagine that the pattern will deliver at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 0z EURO with an ugly look by D10. I actually thought the 00z euro was decent. No warmups and a few snow chances, most interesting of which is next Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I actually thought the 00z euro was decent. No warmups and a few snow chances, most interesting of which is next Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nice mild SW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nice mild SW flow. Day 10 2m HIGH temp here is in the upper teens with single digits at that 240hr map. i wasnt referring to extrapolating past its 240-hr forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Storm around the 24-26th looking interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nice mild SW flow. Nice + mild should not be uttered in the same sentence during the month of January unless you are over 65 years old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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