A-L-E-K Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ouch Chill Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ouch Chill Alek lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 ouch Below normal and quasi zonal at day 10? The Arctic air isn't going to be staying for a month or something silly anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol x 3 trillion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking fairly *bleepy* I think our best shot comes next thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was going to post about this earlier in the day and got caught up but here is the graphic from last night. Not using the usual Mike V. CCKW map. This xt-RWT is too far north to show up on that map. But I have circled the 2 RWTs. The closest one at about 130W is still expected to come over the top of the ridge as a clipper on the 20th as I discussed last week. The second one I have timed to arrive Jan 24 into 25 across the East. I believe it will follow suit and be a clipper. Models will be really screwy with this one for the next couple days. The Euro broke up the energy and had it spinning off weaker pieces of energy for several days after it's collision with the high and the GFS took it over the top delivering it as a clipper across the GLKS on 0z 1/25. Time will tell what the correct answer is. I believe it will end up being a clipper as the 1/20 wave is progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 00Z NAM looks like it is showing more of a glancing blow of the cold. I haven't looked at temperature maps, but by looking strictly at the precip. maps, it looks like the front doesn't really want to move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was going to post about this earlier in the day and got caught up but here is the graphic from last night. Not using the usual Mike V. CCKW map. This xt-RWT is too far north to show up on that map. But I have circled the 2 RWTs. The closest one at about 130W is still expected to come over the top of the ridge as a clipper on the 20th as I discussed last week. The second one I have timed to arrive Jan 24 into 25 across the East. I believe it will follow suit and be a clipper. Models will be really screwy with this one for the next couple days. The Euro broke up the energy and had it spinning off weaker pieces of energy for several days after it's collision with the high and the GFS took it over the top delivering it as a clipper across the GLKS on 0z 1/25. Time will tell what the correct answer is. I believe it will end up being a clipper as the 1/20 wave is progged. wed.jpg thanks for the input! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 00Z NAM looks like it is showing more of a glancing blow of the cold. I haven't looked at temperature maps, but by looking strictly at the precip. maps, it looks like the front doesn't really want to move south. The NAM only goes to 7am Sunday. The bitterest of cold wont even have arrived yet, thats more of a mon-wed deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If GFS could trend just slightly colder in the long range I'd be happy. It looks like the Pacific energy will arrive by the 25th. I'd rather have all snow than yet another "wintry mix" fail. Now don't jinx it people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM only goes to 7am Sunday. The bitterest of cold wont even have arrived yet, thats more of a mon-wed deal. This. The 00z NAM has a 1050 mb high waiting in the wings at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 0z GFS looks like a pile of crap with regard to the friday 25th system! lol We go from bitter cold to rain then back to bitter cold. Sort of like the January 28-29,1994 system which gave Toronto rain and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 0z GFS looks like a pile of crap with regard to the friday 25th system! lol We go from bitter cold to rain then back to bitter cold. Sort of like the January 28-29,1994 system which gave Toronto rain and freezing rain. Good thing it is 9 days out! Now we wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 0z GFS looks like a pile of crap with regard to the friday 25th system! lol We go from bitter cold to rain then back to bitter cold. Sort of like the January 28-29,1994 system which gave Toronto rain and freezing rain.The 0z GFS only gives me one really cold day next week then a dusting then mild rain..Oh boy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i know, maybe a bit on the long side here to think about with this outbreak and maybe a bit of snow wish-cast. but what type of odds would you guys put on a potential 600+ mile lake-effect snowband forming say late monday through wednesday from superior west, through Sault Ste Marie, northern Lake Huron, Barrie to Belleville in southern Ontario, then to Oswego, Utica, Albany, and maybe even Bennington? because from patterns i've seen like this previously, this could set up one of those bands if all clicks into place like I am seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 lol @ the rain storm late next week. even fresh on the heels of serious cold we warm right back up. I should have seen this coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 lol @ the rain storm late next week. even fresh on the heels of serious cold we warm right back up. I should have seen this coming. I did actually. Everything is just happening a lot quicker and more condensed than I expected. Not at all shocked to see this type of incoming cold end with rain....it's not retreating north, it's exiting stage right which means sw winds slam the door on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 0z GFS only gives me one really cold day next week then a dusting then mild rain..Oh boy!! So much for "Coldmageddon" and us getting a taste of what Asia has been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So much for "Coldmageddon" and us getting a taste of what Asia has been seeing. Its gonna get chilly cold man but you're right about not getting a peice of the Coldmageddon. That was only a fantasy and should have never been considered. I think the SSW was expected to deliver a tad more given its off the charts mad dash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its gonna get chilly cold man but you're right about not getting a peice of the Coldmageddon. That was only a fantasy and should have never been considered. I think the SSW was expected to deliver a tad more given its off the charts mad dash. FWIW the cold could still reload and come back down after the brief warm up and rain storm. LOT hints at this in their AFD. I'm skeptical given season trends and the hyper modern tendency towards persistent stuck weather patterns but it's still safely in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its gonna get chilly cold man but you're right about not getting a peice of the Coldmageddon. That was only a fantasy and should have never been considered. I think the SSW was expected to deliver a tad more given its off the charts mad dash. I hear you! It's frustrating that, even with a strong SSW event, we can't seem to get a strong, long lasting arctic outbreak here. It always seem to be Asia and Europe that gets it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0" of snow and 2 rain events on the 12z GFS. 'copter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 0" of snow and 2 rain events on the 12z GFS. 'copter I've come to expect the worst possible scenario and ma nature sure isn't disappointing in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Really hard trying to find something positive with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I hear you! It's frustrating that, even with a strong SSW event, we can't seem to get a strong, long lasting arctic outbreak here. It always seem to be Asia and Europe that gets it! It seems like the problem right now is the overly short+amplified long-wave polar jet pattern over most of the western hemisphere. Shorter wavelengths have an eastward (progressive) group velocity while longer wavelengths have a more westward (regressive) group velocity. There continues to be a lot of storminess over the Western Pacific which keeps amplifying and shortening the PNA ridge to the point where the whole pattern translates eastward. The result is the PNA keeps wanting to flip-flop back and forth rather than allowing the cold to lock in for any length of time. It's not a good pattern for snowstorms either because good midwest storms tend to happen with a wider and less progressive long-wave pattern along with a negative AO. What we need is a wide flattish trough that extends all the way across the North American continent. That kind of "zonal" trough has the potential to break down with lots of storminess instead of simply being shunted to the east as soon as the next batch of Pacific long-wave energy arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Because my posts have been so negative recently, I'll tell you my feeling for some nice cutters in late January into early February is definitely there, the 12z GFS Ensembles shows a decently promising pattern, moreso for the Upper Midwest and Western Lakes at this point than anything, but at least there's hope, and we have the LRC on our side that an active pattern will emerge by early February. It may be our last hope, so my fingers are crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Because my posts have been so negative recently, I'll tell you my feeling for some nice cutters in late January into early February is definitely there, the 12z GFS Ensembles shows a decently promising pattern, moreso for the Upper Midwest and Western Lakes at this point than anything, but at least there's hope, and we have the LRC on our side that an active pattern will emerge by early February. It may be our last hope, so my fingers are crossed. The ensembles do hold some hope in them. Not everything is against the entire subforum at least... the MJO looks to on our side. Just picking out one system; the 24-25th one could easily be a couple hundred miles south and deliver snow to most of members here. I don't buy that Clipper drying out/going away on the 22-23rd yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Really hard trying to find something positive with the GFS. It's not perfect, but the 12z GFS has trended colder with that D7 storm. EURO also looks promising at 168. Looks like a wall of blocking that's going to prevent it from cutting. I realize there's absolutely no reason to be positive, but there's a few nuggets I pulled out of my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's not perfect, but the 12z GFS has trended colder with that D7 storm. EURO also looks promising at 168. Looks like a wall of blocking that's going to prevent it from cutting. I realize there's absolutely no reason to be positive, but there's a few nuggets I pulled out of my ass. lolz, just saw 192. It found a way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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