Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3

[buckeye]

And trust me I will NOT be a happy camper IF we get no snow for this arctic blast. I will take snow over cold ANY DAY Its just really the closer and closer we get to this cold surge the weirder the posts in this thread seem to be getting regarding it.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing a good ole fashioned arctic front induced snow squall.  The kind that last for like an hour, zero visibility and when it's said and done you end up with 2 or 3 inches.  Seems like we haven't seen one of those in awhile.   I'm just not sure the front is coming in that dramatically or if it will be more of a slower transition.

[michsnowfreak]

I wouldn't mind seeing a good ole fashioned arctic front induced snow squall.  The kind that last for like an hour, zero visibility and when it's said and done you end up with 2 or 3 inches.  Seems like we haven't seen one of those in awhile.   I'm just not sure the front is coming in that dramatically or if it will be more of a slower transition.

That was the one and only highlight for here last winter. The Feb 10/11th arctic front. The front literally turned a calm, snowglobe winter night into a few hours of blizzard. I stood outside to video the fronts passage (around 1:30 in this 2:24 clip), around 10pm Feb 10, 2012. We received 4.9" total event snowfall, but 3" of it fell from 10pm-midnight.

[buckeye]

That was the one and only highlight for here last winter. The Feb 10/11th arctic front. The front literally turned a calm, snowglobe winter night into a few hours of blizzard. I stood outside to video the fronts passage, around 10pm Feb 10, 2012. We received 4.9" total event snowfall, but 3" of it fell from 10pm-midnight.

 

yea that's awesome.  I'll never forget one that occurred back in late feb or early Mach of 1990.   It was that winter with the brutal December that turned mild like a switch at new years.   After that the only exciting event was that squall.   It came in right at dusk.   I literally could not see tail lights of the car right in front of me.    My sister was on i-71 heading to Cleveland and she, and many others had to abandon their cars and ended up at a motel.   I think we picked up close to 5 inches in an hour and a half or something like that.

[Geos]

Looks like the GGEM is wanting to push some of the Arctic air up to the High Plains/Rocky Mtn Front. EURO was further west as well.

 

[SpartyOn]

And trust me I will NOT be a happy camper IF we get no snow for this arctic blast. I will take snow over cold ANY DAY Its just really the closer and closer we get to this cold surge the weirder the posts in this thread seem to be getting regarding it.

FWIW. Forgive me if I come off hostile but you basically hijacked this thread and denounced all who have opposing views on the arctic air intrusion. So its just as weird to read all these combative posts by you.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I wouldn't mind seeing a good ole fashioned arctic front induced snow squall.  The kind that last for like an hour, zero visibility and when it's said and done you end up with 2 or 3 inches.  Seems like we haven't seen one of those in awhile.   I'm just not sure the front is coming in that dramatically or if it will be more of a slower transition.

I'm hoping we get some snow with Sunday's arctic front, even if it just whitens the ground.

[Hoosier]

In terms of thicknesses/850 mb temps, the airmass being shown early next week looks kinda similar to the mid January 2009 one...BUT a key difference is the snowcover or lack thereof this time. It would help if we could even lay down a light snowcover here and upstream before it hits.

[gosaints]

That was epic cold in these parts. I think 850 temps for that were low than what is being progged now. At least around here....

[michsnowfreak]

FWIW. Forgive me if I come off hostile but you basically hijacked this thread and denounced all who have opposing views on the arctic air intrusion. So its just as weird to read all these combative posts by you.

LOL you want to talk about hijacking threads

 

This is a discussion thread on med/longrange weather around here. So me (& some others) call bs on claims that this cold snap will be a few days of slightly below normal temps then back to mild when there isnt an indice, sign, or model that comes even CLOSE to portraying this....and thats wrong. But its ok to post banter that adds nothing to the actual discussion. gotcha

[michsnowfreak]

In terms of thicknesses/850 mb temps, the airmass being shown early next week looks kinda similar to the mid January 2009 one...BUT a key difference is the snowcover or lack thereof this time. It would help if we could even lay down a light snowcover here and upstream before it hits.

LOVED Jan 2009. DTW got down to -15F (snowdepth 10") on the 16th which was the coldest temp since 1994. The next day we started the day at -11F and had heavy snow falling by mid-afternoon which made the deep snow deeper.

[beavis1729]

In terms of thicknesses/850 mb temps, the airmass being shown early next week looks kinda similar to the mid January 2009 one...BUT a key difference is the snowcover or lack thereof this time. It would help if we could even lay down a light snowcover here and upstream before it hits.

Agree.  Even though it dropped to -20F here on the coldest morning (I think 1/17/09?), it didn't get any lower than -20C at H85.  That's what deep snow cover over a large area will do.

[OHweather]

Long Range Thoughts 1/15/12: Arctic Cold Coming Soon, Will we Warm up or Stay Cold Into February?

 

 

The polar vortex over northern Canada has begun making its much awaited plunge towards Hudson Bay, aided by ridging over the North Pole and ridging into western North America. This vortex displacement will result in an initial burst of seasonably cool weather, mainly in the Great Lakes and Midwest, Wednesday into Thursday before a strong Pacific flow, seen by a very tight gradient moving into the Rockies, pushes the cold air out temporarily.

 

 

However, convection has been making a push east of the dateline which will weaken the Asian-Pacific jet and allow stronger ridging to build over western North America by the weekend. The ECM ensembles show this well:

 

 

So, despite the wheeler plots showing the MJO stalling in phases 6-7, that isn’t what will really happen as has been previously discussed…convection is continuing to progress eastward while another pulse develops over Africa/the western Indian Ocean, which is messing with the plots. However, the current pulse will act like a phase 8-1 pulse long enough to spike the PNA positive this weekend and connect with the –AO, which will develop a classic cross polar flow this weekend and allow the heart of the arctic air to reach the region on Monday.

 

 

The ECM ensembles show this well as well and on the mean have 850mb temps of -20C making it into the lower lakes. Although some individual models have been a bit cooler this seems like a safe starting point and suggests a good potential for subzero readings away from lakes and cities, especially if the clipper that has been advertised on the leading edge of this airmass can put down a little bit of snow.

Now, in my last write up I discussed three arctic blasts:

1. This Thursday, a seasonably cool and fleeting shot of arctic air. Looks on track.
2. Around the 21^st or 22^nd, another blast that has the potential to be colder and longer lasting.
3. Around the 25^th-27^th, potentially the coldest blast.

Right now blasts 1 and 2 appear to be coming right on schedule, with this week’s piece of cold air being nothing special and the shot early next week being colder and a bit more persistent. However, focus may need to be taken off the third blast somewhat:

 

 

As the current MJO pulse continues to propagate east and eventually weaken, the models have been trying to re-establish a strong Asian-Pacific jet with the potential for it to break in the central Pacific again and raise heights towards the Aleutians. As we have witnessed quite a bit this winter, this tends to force lower heights over the western US. Thus, we can probably expect the flow to gradually flatten out over the western US the second half of next week.

 

 

The GFS and ECM both show this beginning to occur in the 8-10 day range, with heights beginning to rise into the Aleutians and lower over the Gulf of Alaska, which would slowly weaken the +PNA during the latter portions of next week. However, the AO will remain strongly negative, and both models happen to swirl the PV towards the 50/50 position and lower the NAO a tad towards the end of next week. So, even if the PNA trends towards neutral and negative with time, much of the sub-forum, especially the eastern lakes and eastern OV, would still likely remain below normal through the end of next week with some chance of continued clipper activity with a strong NW flow into the region…although the focus of the cold would be towards New England towards the end of next week.

 

So, the question is at this point, how long with the neutral/-PNA and –NAO/-AO regime continue as we head into February?

There are a few things to look at here…first, the MJO:

 

 

The GFS shows an increasing signal for convection over the Indian Ocean at 180 hours, and this has been modeled off and on over the past several days. This may lend credence to Aleutian ridge continuing for quite some time.

 

 

The GLAAM continues to slowly make strides to more Nino-like phases, with momentum continuing to increase between 30N-30S and is showing some decrease in the more recent updates over the mid-latitudes. This is correlated with a phase 5-6-7 GLAAM/GWO which is correlated with dateline convection. Given these trends I’d suspect we’ll see this MJO pulse attempt to propagate eastward as we head into February.

 

 

The stratospheric vortex has split and the Euro shows 10mb temps continuing to warm or at least hold steady over the next 9 days. The warming has stopped for now; however, when looking at years (1979 and later) which featured 10mb warming events that peaked at -35 to -45C during the 2^nd/3^rd week of January, the February 500mb heights over the Polar Regions looked like this:

 

 

As a note, 1992 was excluded due to being too warm, along with 2010 for the same issue…2012 was included because it did marginally fit the time and temperature criteria…and 2006 was including despite warming past the criteria, because it initially peaked during the first half of January and was cooling mid-month before warming farther. Due to the Euro indicating rapid cooling will not commence at 10mb, I allowed it to stay.

 

Either way, the consensus is for the AO to remain neutral to slightly negative, along with a strong negative NAO correlation. This supports that high latitude blocking will continue into February. It is too early to tell whether or not the blocking will be NAO or AO focused…although the GFS and Euro ensembles illustrate the potential for both telleconnections to remain negative into February:

 

 

So, when putting it all together, although the pattern probably will not be below normal non-stop from early next week through the first half of February, it will be hard to see extended stretches of above average temperatures.

 

My general thinking is as follows:

 

Arctic shots number one and two come through as discussed above. We see the heart of the cold shift east during the second half of next week, but, the sub-forum should see normal to below normal temperatures through the end of next week.

 

There may be a bit of re-arranging next weekend into the last few days of January as the ridging re-arranges more over the Pacific, however, as the Aleutian ridging becomes re-established and the NAO continues to fall we may see the trough shift back west a little and direct more well below normal temps towards the Great Lakes as opposed to New England. This may still support clippers over the regions, especially the Great Lakes/OV, although moisture will be lacking.

 

If the MJO begins propagating east as I think it may we may have a window during the first week of February where a more active STJ will combine with what I believe will remain a highly amplified pattern to generate a potentially major synoptic storm somewhere over the eastern third of the US. Obviously at this point how far west any storm tracks, if it occurs, remains up in the air.

As the MJO continues to propagate east we may see more heavy duty cold focused on the Great Lakes as we head into the second week of February with a return to a more clipper conducive pattern with overall suppression.

 

I’ll try to update again over the weekend.

[Harry]

Im not sold on the duration of this cold snap being tossed around. Feb 15th is a little bold eh? That means no above normal days for almost 25 days. You feel confident in that mifreak?

 

Even i have to admit that i have strong doubts even if everything comes perfectly together for long lasting cold. Would be different if the ground was covered across the whole region. I won't be foolish enough to say though that the chances are zero. I would give it a 50/50 shot.

 

 

 

Yep, this is a classic glancing below normal blow followed by seasonal temps with the polar vortex making a hasty exit stage right.  This is not the look of sustained cold.

 

Normally i would agree but the issue is the MJO progression. This is why i refuse to jump on anything YET. About to enter phase 7 as of today. Lets see where that goes. Get it to 8 and it does the circle around 7-8 then get ready for some long lasting cold that overtakes much of the country.

 

 

 

Hoosier - I see what you're saying...and you're correct, verbatim.  But if the trough axis slides a bit further east, it's a different story.

 

My point was just that, in Chicago, you like to see the hammer drop in MT first (that classic sharp arctic front pushing up against the eastern slopes of the rockies with a huge high pressure)...then it slides over here.  In this upcoming sitatuion, the cold is coming from the due north.  If it continues that way per models, you're right that it will stay cold.  My main point is that it's not a "classic" cold wave appearance for Chicago.

 

Selfishly, I'll admit that I wouldn't be harping on the "angle of the cold" so much if we had a good snow cover in the Midwest.  From an extreme wx perspective, it's not that exciting to see a couple of nights near zero (or slightly below) with bare ground.  But from a meteorological perspective, per your other thread, I agree it will be interesting to see how cold it can get with no snow on the ground.

 

I too would like to see the exact same thing BUT for a couple of other reasons on top of that.

 

 

yea that's awesome.  I'll never forget one that occurred back in late feb or early Mach of 1990.   It was that winter with the brutal December that turned mild like a switch at new years.   After that the only exciting event was that squall.   It came in right at dusk.   I literally could not see tail lights of the car right in front of me.    My sister was on i-71 heading to Cleveland and she, and many others had to abandon their cars and ended up at a motel.   I think we picked up close to 5 inches in an hour and a half or something like that.

 

Forget which winter it was ( either 02-03 or 03-04 ) but that one which brought out the severe warnings was sweet. Was another as well one of those winters.

 

 

FWIW. Forgive me if I come off hostile but you basically hijacked this thread and denounced all who have opposing views on the arctic air intrusion. So its just as weird to read all these combative posts by you.

 

It would be different if the opposing views made some legit points. Thus the problem. To say well last winter and so far this winter has sucked or whatever is not a legit point. Nor is just posting a single image from a model run a legit point. Bigger part of the problem is MANY do not understand what drives ( MJO/QBO/EPO etc etc etc ) our patterns etc. And yes i have seen it happen the other way as well. There is some LEGIT concerns still on the table of which only aleking pointed one of them out. That relates a bit to the NAO. A -NAO would help lock the cold in especially if we have a decent +PNA ridge out west. What he showed looks/is a +NAO type pattern. Models don't show too much -nao blocking and thus a legit concern.  The other way ( which he missed/forgot about perhaps? )  to get sustained cold is the -EPO. This also tends to bring us our coldest outbreaks. Models DO show that being on the negative side. Personally i'll take the -AO/-EPO combo and a neutral/slightly positive NAO/Slightly +PNA. The models etc do show the epo- and as long as that is like that the cold should come. What could screw it up is via the PNA. A negative PNA would send the cold to the west coast and IF the NAO is neutral and especially positive we could end up on the warmer side of things in the GL/Eastern us. A -NAO would help keep the cold if the PNA is also negative.

 

What influences stuff like i mentioned above is the MJO and ofcourse the stratosphere events. Thus keep a eye on that MJO the next few days. This is a major hurdle we have in front of us.

[DAFF]

I think the biggest problem with everyone is fustration. Yes the cold has been forecasted for almost two years on the models but has had problem entering the one week mark. Then there is the issue of lack of snow for most of the subforum plus nothing of true intrest as of late. Sooner or later numericially and stastically things will change for the better. Till then lets have fun and hope the GFS doesn't Lucy Charle Browns football and we get some typicial winter weather in the region.

 

Hey Alberta !!! Is the train loaded yet ???? Were all waiting !!!

[Harry]

I think the biggest problem with everyone is fustration. Yes the cold has been forecasted for almost two years on the models but has had problem entering the one week mark. Then there is the issue of lack of snow for most of the subforum plus nothing of true intrest as of late. Sooner or later numericially and stastically things will change for the better. Till then lets have fun and hope the GFS doesn't Lucy Charle Browns football and we get some typicial winter weather in the region.

 

Hey Alberta !!! Is the train loaded yet ???? Were all waiting !!!

 

 

Again see my last post. There is reasons for why things happen or don't happen. Understanding them i think would help with the frustration.

[DAFF]

Again see my last post. There is reasons for why things happen or don't happen. Understanding them i think would help with the frustration.

I will agree with this 100% Computer models are good instuments and are not paramount in weather forecasting.  There is still a huge human factor too in making good long term forecasts.

[michsnowfreak]

Even i have to admit that i have strong doubts even if everything comes perfectly together for long lasting cold. Would be different if the ground was covered across the whole region. I won't be foolish enough to say though that the chances are zero. I would give it a 50/50 shot.

Keep in mind...my only point was that the intra-month period of Jan 15-Feb 15 would average below normal. Confidence seems very high in that. This is not to say there wont be some above normal days. If we can lay down a widespread snowcover, even though it wont be deep, it may make a huge difference in some of the temps during the coldest 850s.

[michsnowfreak]

I think the biggest problem with everyone is fustration. Yes the cold has been forecasted for almost two years on the models but has had problem entering the one week mark. Then there is the issue of lack of snow for most of the subforum plus nothing of true intrest as of late. Sooner or later numericially and stastically things will change for the better. Till then lets have fun and hope the GFS doesn't Lucy Charle Browns football and we get some typicial winter weather in the region.

 

Hey Alberta !!! Is the train loaded yet ???? Were all waiting !!!

While it is an absolute fact that a bias of the GFS is that it overdoes cold in the longterm...i have seen this thrown around a lot and to be honest, I dont remember much fantasy cold/storm forecasting that was good last year. Maybe an odd-ball run or two but for the most part the models were as boring as the weather was last winter.

And I agree....we are ready Alberta!

[michsnowfreak]

By the way, appreciate the hard work as always OHweather!

[Geos]

Good wrap up of what's going on OHweather!

 

EURO has the main piece of the PV parking itself over Quebec for awhile.

 

That we get the defined shot of Arctic air on Sunday. Then a stronger piece of cold air drops in about 24 hours later - further west also. Looks like chunks of varying degrees of Arctic air pivot around Quebec and Hudson Bay through 180 hours as a block sets up of Greenland.

 

 

Yes, Alberta we are ready what you can throw at us!

[Harry]

The pattern will go more zonal as we end the month. Not a bad thing if it can do the deed ala late December.

 

And this is based on what?

[IWXwx]

And this is based on what?

Good example Harry. As OHweather eloquently pointed out in his post:

 

As the current MJO pulse continues to propagate east and eventually weaken, the models have been trying to re-establish a strong Asian-Pacific jet with the potential for it to break in the central Pacific again and raise heights towards the Aleutians. As we have witnessed quite a bit this winter, this tends to force lower heights over the western US. Thus, we can probably expect the flow to gradually flatten out over the western US the second half of next week.

 

 

The GFS and ECM both show this beginning to occur in the 8-10 day range, with heights beginning to rise into the Aleutians and lower over the Gulf of Alaska, which would slowly weaken the +PNA during the latter portions of next week. However, the AO will remain strongly negative, and both models happen to swirl the PV towards the 50/50 position and lower the NAO a tad towards the end of next week. So, even if the PNA trends towards neutral and negative with time, much of the sub-forum, especially the eastern lakes and eastern OV, would still likely remain below normal through the end of next week with some chance of continued clipper activity with a strong NW flow into the region…although the focus of the cold would be towards New England towards the end of next week.

 

 

 

If this plays out, It won't be zonal, but will be less amplified.

[SpartyOn]

6z GFS does some decent moderation of the arctic airmass past D8-10. Still looking prime for a couple good clippers as well. 

[buckeye]

this is the end of the 00z euro run.   I actually like the look....rather have it wavy then sitting in the middle of deep entrenched trough.   Big storm chances are much better.

[A-L-E-K]

 

[toronto blizzard]

The storm on D9 on the EURO has my interest.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

The 12z GFS looks a fair bit warmer in the medium range.

[gosaints]

Really mutes the cold blast around here. Just a couple days. Looks interesting at the end of next week though!

[A-L-E-K]

the euro and GFS both agree on the thaw around D6-7 with some decent WAA into the plains.  We'll see if we can get something more interesting to happen with that set-up.

[Stebo]

The European still has an interesting system moving West to East around Day 8-9 on this run. This has been showing up for several runs in a row now, along with the GFS's run today showing it. Depending upon how deep the Arctic air gets entrenched in the area will dictate how far North this system runs West to East. The crux of the situation being the further South the system can traverse the better the moisture influx into the system could be, although this could limit locations further North.