Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Outside of the great lakes region, the rest of us in the west and southern areas is looking pretty grim. Just downright awful actually. Very cold and very dry, with maybe a clipper if we get lucky. Pretty pathetic winter we have going here. At least Feb will be rockin'. GFS fwiw. What's up with the snow hole over S WI! Drag that Clipper track 300 miles south! I don't think there's going to be any mild spells going into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Where are you seeing the mild pattern? Sure, maybe a day or two here and there but seasonable to below looks to dominate overall. Every sign, signal, and model weekly shows cold dominating into AT LEAST mid-February. Sure you may have a few seasonable or even mild days, but talking overall. I would say the chance of below normal temps region-wide from Jan 15-Feb 15 is about 95%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 What's up with the snow hole over S WI! Drag that Clipper track 300 miles south! I don't think there's going to be any mild spells going into February. Clipper Sunday-Monday could likely be juicier and further south than GFS indicates. See 12z Canadian and also GFS ensemble mean has a much better blob of qpf. Really, all im asking for is a little snowcover for this arctic blast. You cannot expect big storms with this kinda cold, simply can not. It will start to firm up the lakes and everything for outdoor skating, then let the cold moderate some and give us snowmageddon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 What's up with the snow hole over S WI! Drag that Clipper track 300 miles south! I don't think there's going to be any mild spells going into February. GFS shows one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 anyone wanna bet that no matter how cold it gets, for how long.... the next significant storm event for the subforum will have precip issues for at least half of our region....if it's not flat out rain. When these troughs set up so far east you usually are basking in very cold and dry, or the eventual significant warm up as storms ride up fairly far west. I know, I should probably take it to the complaint thread.....just that brutal cold and dry sucks. Much rather torch. I'm not singling anyone out but the whining/debbie downer stuff has been spreading around and it's getting annoying. Complaint thread is there for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Where are you seeing the mild pattern? Sure, maybe a day or two here and there but seasonable to below looks to dominate overall. Verbaitim, I agree with you that the models aren't really showing a significant warm up after the intense cold this weekend. However, we usually get our most persistent/long-lasting arctic outbreaks when the cold air drops into MT/ND first, then bleeds over here. In other words, when the trough axis is centered further west than the Midwest. But with this upcoming cold shot, the trough axis is pretty much centered directly over us, with warmth not too far west of us. So, while it could be intensely cold for a brief period...it wouldn't take much for the cold to focus itself further east over time. I'm talking Chicago specifically here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS shows one! LOL. Once the arctic front moves through Sunday, the max temp at Chicago from hr 114 to hr 384 is 27F. Sizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm not singling anyone out but the whining/debbie downer stuff has been spreading around and it's getting annoying. Complaint thread is there for a reason. Amen. That and the trolling too. I really think the debbies WANTED this cold snap to fail and are quite p*ssed it is apparently not going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Im not sold on the duration of this cold snap being tossed around. Feb 15th is a little bold eh? That means no above normal days for almost 25 days. You feel confident in that mifreak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 GFS shows one! 12z warmup was in fantasy land! Other that that just tomorrow and Friday-Sat. looked above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Amen. That and the trolling too. I really think the debbies WANTED this cold snap to fail and are quite p*ssed it is apparently not going to. We're actually doing very well here in CMH region this winter. Here's something to ponder about the upcoming brutal cold. We were almost +6 temp departure for December and yet had almost twice the normal snowfall. It is way more likely, (outside of LES areas), for the snow departures to be greatest with seasonable temps vs. much below temps. So yes, you are right, I personally was rooting for this arctic blast to become muted because ultimately it's the snow I want. If that makes me a troll or a debbie downer, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 I'm not singling anyone out but the whining/debbie downer stuff has been spreading around and it's getting annoying. Complaint thread is there for a reason. Single them out. There's a Chicago poster that offers nothing but snarky, negative one-liners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Verbaitim, I agree with you that the models aren't really showing a significant warm up after the intense cold this weekend. However, we usually get our most persistent/long-lasting arctic outbreaks when the cold air drops into MT/ND first, then bleeds over here. In other words, when the trough axis is centered further west than the Midwest. But with this upcoming cold shot, the trough axis is pretty much centered directly over us, with warmth not too far west of us. So, while it could be intensely cold for a brief period...it wouldn't take much for the cold to focus itself further east over time. I'm talking Chicago specifically here. 0z EURO was back further west then the GFS is. If the west coast ridge retrogrades, then will have a Montana, Dakota arctic outbreak first and not over into our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 LOL. Once the arctic front moves through Sunday, the max temp at Chicago from hr 114 to hr 384 is 27F. Sizzling. I will take the over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Michsnowfreak, that would be remarkable if true. Would probably mean Milwaukee's highest temp in that period would be about 25, which would still be below normal. I'm not sure if I buy no mild days in that stretch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Im not sold on the duration of this cold snap being tossed around. Feb 15th is a little bold eh? That means no above normal days for almost 25 days. You feel confident in that mifreak? I meant the temp departure from Jan 15-Feb 15 would be solidly below normal region-wide, not that every single day would be. I even said you may (probably) will see a few seasonable or mild days. Just like the torch winter last year, there were a few cold days, still the period was solidly warmer than average. If i had to venture a guess, the worst of the cold would be next week, but the following weeks would still be colder than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 15, 2013 Author Share Posted January 15, 2013 Outside of the great lakes region, the rest of us in the west and southern areas is looking pretty grim. Just downright awful actually. Very cold and very dry, with maybe a clipper if we get lucky. Pretty pathetic winter we have going here. At least Feb will be rockin'. GFS fwiw. The non precip areas on that map correlate very closely to already drought stricken areas. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We're actually doing very well here in CMH region this winter. Here's something to ponder about the upcoming brutal cold. We were almost +6 temp departure for December and yet had almost twice the normal snowfall. It is way more likely, (outside of LES areas), for the snow departures to be greatest with seasonable temps vs. much below temps. So yes, you are right, I personally was rooting for this arctic blast to become muted because ultimately it's the snow I want. If that makes me a troll or a debbie downer, so be it. Believe me I am with you..give me the snow over the cold. And yes I know CMH has done well, in fact, better than most of us lol. And I was not implying you were a troll or debbie. I just meant I get a vibe from some that they truly thought this cold snap would fail and are mad it wont. They were counting on it failing to say "the GFS never materializes" etc etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Verbaitim, I agree with you that the models aren't really showing a significant warm up after the intense cold this weekend. However, we usually get our most persistent/long-lasting arctic outbreaks when the cold air drops into MT/ND first, then bleeds over here. In other words, when the trough axis is centered further west than the Midwest. But with this upcoming cold shot, the trough axis is pretty much centered directly over us, with warmth not too far west of us. So, while it could be intensely cold for a brief period...it wouldn't take much for the cold to focus itself further east over time. I'm talking Chicago specifically here. Yep, this is a classic glancing below normal blow followed by seasonal temps with the polar vortex making a hasty exit stage right. This is not the look of sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Michsnowfreak, that would be remarkable if true. Would probably mean Milwaukee's highest temp in that period would be about 25, which would still be below normal. I'm not sure if I buy no mild days in that stretch though. Actually MKE's max temp is 28F in that stretch. This is a 2m temp btw, sometimes the actual reported sfc temp is a little +/- depending on the conditions. And I am NOT saying that will happen, I was merely pointing out the GFS showing a warmup is a complete LIE. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Single them out. There's a Chicago poster that offers nothing but snarky, negative one-liners. quite a few lately and it's damn annoying. Don't post if that's all you're going to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yep, this is a classic glancing below normal blow followed by seasonal temps with the polar vortex making a hasty exit stage right. This is not the look of sustained cold. Yeah, this map looks seasonal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yeah, this map looks seasonal of course it doesn't but it looks very transient and the incoming air would be. I won't beat this dead horse, we'll see where we are in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hoosier - I see what you're saying...and you're correct, verbatim. But if the trough axis slides a bit further east, it's a different story. My point was just that, in Chicago, you like to see the hammer drop in MT first (that classic sharp arctic front pushing up against the eastern slopes of the rockies with a huge high pressure)...then it slides over here. In this upcoming sitatuion, the cold is coming from the due north. If it continues that way per models, you're right that it will stay cold. My main point is that it's not a "classic" cold wave appearance for Chicago. Selfishly, I'll admit that I wouldn't be harping on the "angle of the cold" so much if we had a good snow cover in the Midwest. From an extreme wx perspective, it's not that exciting to see a couple of nights near zero (or slightly below) with bare ground. But from a meteorological perspective, per your other thread, I agree it will be interesting to see how cold it can get with no snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Actually MKE's max temp is 28F in that stretch. This is a 2m temp btw, sometimes the actual reported sfc temp is a little +/- depending on the conditions. And I am NOT saying that will happen, I was merely pointing out the GFS showing a warmup is a complete LIE. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMKE Nice site! Highest temperature here gets to 37° according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Meltdown city up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Really, are we preaching about post day 10 GFS as if it were the gospel? A specific Chicago poster just being delusional now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Hoosier - I see what you're saying...and you're correct, verbatim. But if the trough axis slides a bit further east, it's a different story. My point was just that, in Chicago, you like to see the hammer drop in MT first (that classic sharp arctic front pushing up against the eastern slopes of the rockies with a huge high pressure)...then it slides over here. In this upcoming sitatuion, the cold is coming from the due north. If it continues that way per models, you're right that it will stay cold. My main point is that it's not a "classic" cold wave appearance for Chicago. Selfishly, I'll admit that I wouldn't be harping on the "angle of the cold" so much if we had a good snow cover in the Midwest. From an extreme wx perspective, it's not that exciting to see a couple of nights near zero (or slightly below) with bare ground. But from a meteorological perspective, per your other thread, I agree it will be interesting to see how cold it can get with no snow on the ground. I guess I don't really agree with the premise. Go look at some of the arctic outbreaks from the 1980s and 1990s...the point of entry into the US is very similar to what's being progged this time. This one just doesn't look as intense overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Believe me I am with you..give me the snow over the cold. And yes I know CMH has done well, in fact, better than most of us lol. And I was not implying you were a troll or debbie. I just meant I get a vibe from some that they truly thought this cold snap would fail and are mad it wont. They were counting on it failing to say "the GFS never materializes" etc etc etc. It's all good... I think we're on the same page. I'm just in the glass half empty mood today....you're perpetually in the glass half full mood, (that's a good thing). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 It's all good... I think we're on the same page. I'm just in the glass half empty mood today....you're perpetually in the glass half full mood, (that's a good thing). And trust me I will NOT be a happy camper IF we get no snow for this arctic blast. I will take snow over cold ANY DAY Its just really the closer and closer we get to this cold surge the weirder the posts in this thread seem to be getting regarding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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