Geos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z GFS is a lot more robust with the weekend Clipper then the EURO is! Fwiw: the RPM is bringing that system further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't see what was so bad about the 12z gfs. It is cold with a clipper pattern. Taking qpf or qpf placement far out is a major mistake. Below normal temps during what is already the coldest time of year and lots of disturbances (albeit no major ones) riding through the midwest/lakes. Sounds like mid-winter in Michigan to me. You are always at the mercy of where ma nature tracks disturbances, but id say the cold is a near lock. Moisture starved clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z GFS is a lot more robust with the weekend Clipper then the EURO is! Fwiw: the RPM is bringing that system further south. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 ! Co-post of the year with your most recent like-minded post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't see what was so bad about the 12z gfs. It is cold with a clipper pattern. Taking qpf or qpf placement far out is a major mistake. Below normal temps during what is already the coldest time of year and lots of disturbances (albeit no major ones) riding through the midwest/lakes. Sounds like mid-winter in Michigan to me. You are always at the mercy of where ma nature tracks disturbances, but id say the cold is a near lock. If u like stat padding 1-2" high fluff snow that evaps in the sun then the 12z GFS is a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The shaded colors are 850mb winds. well sh@t... looks like my plans to quit my day job are going on hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 get the snowblower ready Love how it kinks to the north just to avoid me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Honestly, I've been thinking that I've got to temper my expectations given I lived in Ottawa for 6 winters. I looked back at Toronto's data and, for this city, an very cold outbreak would give us highs in the upper teens. An extreme outbreak might give us a day or two of highs in single digets. Similar to Detroit. Given last winter essentially wasn't a winter temperature-wise, I'm still not acclimatized to Toronto's milder winters and, thus, in my head, I've been thinking of highs around 0F or below which generally do not happen in Toronto due to a) it being further south, it being on the shores of a lake which rarely freezes over and c) it not being in a valley like Ottawa, thus preventing any cold from having staying power. So, here's hoping next week I see general highs in the mid to upper teens, with at least one overnight low between 0F and -5F I wouldn't mind seeing a daytime high of around 5-10F, if only to bring the mean for the month down. Lakes Huron and Superior have more to do with our relative warmth than Lake Ontario. Dominant flow is WNW during the winter so cP/cA airmasses will almost always be moderated as they cross the warmer waters. I don't know this for a fact, but I'd suspect our coldest days occur when you have an arctic ridge over Quebec and a feed of unmodified NE/NNE winds. You referenced January 14, 1999 a few pages back, which is an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 If u like stat padding 1-2" high fluff snow that evaps in the sun then the 12z GFS is a great run.Well let me tell ya 1-2" is a hell of a lot better than bare ground. Plus we could use some stat-padding to balance out the stat-minimizing snow we had around christmas (5-day snow blitz lasting on ground near 3 weeks with hardly any new snow). But how many times does it need to be said....models do not do well with clippers far out. Some undoubtedly will be moisture-starved but some ptobably will pick up some good moisture from the lake. So showing clippers, moisture starved ot not, is a good sign. Clipper expresses used to be our winters. Getting 3-5 warning criteria storms as we had been getting in recent winters is nor normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well let me tell ya 1-2" is a hell of a lot better than bare ground. Plus we could use some stat-padding to balance out the stat-minimizing snow we had around christmas (5-day snow blitz lasting on ground near 3 weeks with hardly any new snow). But how many times does it need to be said....models do not do well with clippers far out. Some undoubtedly will be moisture-starved but some ptobably will pick up some good moisture from the lake. So showing clippers, moisture starved ot not, is a good sign. Clipper expresses used to be our winters. Getting 3-5 warning criteria storms as we had been getting in recent winters is nor normal. To add to this, The Great Lakes are open for business right now. Normally, right now ice is forming on the lakes and the water temps are getting about as cold as they will get. However, our mild winter up to this point, means the Lakes may be at a December level ice coverage/temp with January level cold coming in. At the very least, that can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I don't know why people continue to look at each run of an operational model and have mood swings as if the exact scenario is going to play out. I look at the current model runs and see clipper after clipper with a good chance of some real cold air by this weekend. Where those clippers produce snow is unknown. I've seen many clippers produce advisory or even warning criteria snowfall, so I'm not sure where this idea that you can only get an inch or two of fluff is coming from. I'm just happy to be getting into what appears to be a much more wintry patern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Lakes Huron and Superior have more to do with our relative warmth than Lake Ontario. Dominant flow is WNW during the winter so cP/cA airmasses will almost always be moderated as they cross the warmer waters. I don't know this for a fact, but I'd suspect our coldest days occur when you have an arctic ridge over Quebec and a feed of unmodified NE/NNE winds. You referenced January 14, 1999 a few pages back, which is an example. You're right. The NE wind is Toronto's coldest wind by far. It's the only wind we get which doesn't have to cross a body of water to reach the city. Often our coldest days are just ahead of a storm system or if a storm misses us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Update on coldhttp://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2013/01/does-sudden-warming-high-up-in.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Check out the 944mb neutercane NE of Quebec at h165 on the 18Z GFS. Holy shiite, for the seals & eskimos at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Eh, maybe. Clipper 1 will be far to north for most on this board along with a warm front. Clipper 2, to far out. Maybe there will be something more "wintry, but that is down the line. Being a weather weenie is about instant gratification first and the next 5-7 days is bleh.......... Yeah, really. I won't feel good about anything in particular until it is locked in within 24-48 hours on most or all of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 EURO drops a chunk of the polar vortex into the subforum 7 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spwild47 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Off the scale color and no one is impressed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Off the scale color and no one is impressed lol Well its been showing that for 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well its been showing that for 2 weeks. Well, now it's 1 week.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Off the scale color and no one is impressed lol Outside of captured image =/= off scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If that came to fruition, this winter would remind me a good bit of 2006-2007. Craptastic start, then in the last half of January, bitter cold sets in. A few nickel and dime events lay down a snowpack of 2 or so inches and most of Feb. was bitterly cold. Although at least 2006-2007 had the 12/1/2006 storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Well, now it's 1 week.... Yes, we are getting into the timeframe where there's not much time for massive backing down. Patterns are easier to predict 1-2 weeks out than individual storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Outside of the great lakes region, the rest of us in the west and southern areas is looking pretty grim. Just downright awful actually. Very cold and very dry, with maybe a clipper if we get lucky. Pretty pathetic winter we have going here. At least Feb will be rockin'. GFS fwiw. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/13/awful2.jpg/'>http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/832/awful1.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Yes, we are getting into the timeframe where there's not much time for massive backing down. Patterns are easier to predict 1-2 weeks out than individual storms. Yet look at the last week or two in several threads, and you will see a ton of posts (Im paraphrasing because someone will respond "no one said that") that say "cold is always 2 weeks away", "once we get past this little cold snap primed for warm spring", "a few days of slightly below normal temps", aleks post below, etc etc. Its actually funny. Posts like this would imply perhaps a 2 or 3 day period with highs a few degrees below normal than back into mild air, when the reality is signs point to the cold sticking around into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 brief cool down and a return to mild and boring ftl. summer cannot get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 anyone wanna bet that no matter how cold it gets, for how long.... the next significant storm event for the subforum will have precip issues for at least half of our region....if it's not flat out rain. When these troughs set up so far east you usually are basking in very cold and dry, or the eventual significant warm up as storms ride up fairly far west. I know, I should probably take it to the complaint thread.....just that brutal cold and dry sucks. Much rather torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Off the scale color and no one is impressed lol Actually the scale is there I just cropped it out by accident. But it's at the extreme left right already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 brief cool down and a return to mild and boring ftl. summer cannot get here soon enough. Where are you seeing the mild pattern? Sure, maybe a day or two here and there but seasonable to below looks to dominate overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 anyone wanna bet that no matter how cold it gets, for how long.... the next significant storm event for the subforum will have precip issues for at least half of our region....if it's not flat out rain. When these troughs set up so far east you usually are basking in very cold and dry, or the eventual significant warm up as storms ride up fairly far west. I know, I should probably take it to the complaint thread.....just that brutal cold and dry sucks. Much rather torch. Cold and dry is good for those who like outdoor skating. Not much consolation for the lovers, but it is a benefit of brutal cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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