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Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3


IWXwx

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Chicago is going to pay for those back-to-back-to-back 50+ inch winters and 2 storms bigger than anything to hit SE Michigan in 35 years.

Yeah because this makes any sense...

Obviously I was being tongue in cheek, but if you feel the need to be an @ss....

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For SE Michigan... You got that right.

At least it doesn't show mega torch. I'd rather have sesonable to below temps and snow showers/ flurries each day than 30s and 40s with damp, raw and windy weather. It's not like it's going to be 70F this time of year. Mild weather this time of year is useless. Still too cold to enjoy the outdoors without bundling up.

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Honestly, I've been thinking that I've got to temper my expectations given I lived in Ottawa for 6 winters. I looked back at Toronto's data and, for this city, an very cold outbreak would give us highs in the upper teens. An extreme outbreak might give us a day or two of highs in single digets. Similar to Detroit. Given last winter essentially wasn't a winter temperature-wise, I'm still not acclimatized to Toronto's milder winters and, thus, in my head, I've been thinking of highs around 0F or below which generally do not happen in Toronto due to a) it being further south, B) it being on the shores of a lake which rarely freezes over and c) it not being in a valley like Ottawa, thus preventing any cold from having staying power.

 

So, here's hoping next week I see general highs in the mid to upper teens, with at least one overnight low between 0F and -5F

 

I wouldn't mind seeing a daytime high of around 5-10F, if only to bring the mean for the month down.

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Honestly, I've been thinking that I've got to temper my expectations given I lived in Ottawa for 6 winters. I looked back at Toronto's data and, for this city, an very cold outbreak would give us highs in the upper teens. An extreme outbreak might give us a day or two of highs in single digets. Similar to Detroit. Given last winter essentially wasn't a winter temperature-wise, I'm still not acclimatized to Toronto's milder winters and, thus, in my head, I've been thinking of highs around 0F or below which generally do not happen in Toronto due to a) it being further south, B) it being on the shores of a lake which rarely freezes over and c) it not being in a valley like Ottawa, thus preventing any cold from having staying power.

 

So, here's hoping next week I see general highs in the mid to upper teens, with at least one overnight low between 0F and -5F

 

I wouldn't mind seeing a daytime high of around 5-10F, if only to bring the mean for the month down.

If you lived in Madison, WI and moved north to Traverse City, MI, you would probably think every winter was mild just being on the east and southeast sides of Lake Superior and Michigan.

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I don't see what was so bad about the 12z gfs. It is cold with a clipper pattern. Taking qpf or qpf placement far out is a major mistake. Below normal temps during what is already the coldest time of year and lots of disturbances (albeit no major ones) riding through the midwest/lakes. Sounds like mid-winter in Michigan to me. You are always at the mercy of where ma nature tracks disturbances, but id say the cold is a near lock.

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