wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 June 2011 through January 2013 has been one big snooze fest, atleast in southwest Michigan. No different here, that's honestly the reason my posts have read like a morgue. Ever since I have started looking at models in-depth back in spring or summer of 2011, we have probably had the most boring stretch from a storm and snow combo in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well I will say the second xt RWT I discussed a couple days ago seems to have picked up speed so it appears it may arrive a day and a half earlier, so Jan 20-21 which still fits (actually better fit) into the Jan 20-24 window I laid out. Which sets us up for a different entity to induce the short wave for the Jan 24-27 window. That may...may...may... work out better for us because it appears the 1st RWT was split by the ridge at 140W and part of the RWT energy went over the top and the other underneath with the part going underneath contributing to the piece of energy that gets strung out over the south on the 14/15th and the other energy comes over the top as a the clipper on the 16/17 that drops in the colder air in for the 17th. You can view this all if you go back and look at Mike's CCKW analysis map and the N. American sector of the GFS/EC 6hr sfc qpf and 5h vort maps a few days ago and track the RWT and watch qpf pocket/vorts split by Hawaii and do their thing. (vort. shows up better on wxunderground since they use a more sensitive scale than ncep.) The 2nd RTW right now appears that it's far enough north that it will just ride over the ridge and guessing the energy will become a clipper for the 20/21. As a result maybe we can get a better mechanism (shortwave) for the 24-27 cold blast say coming up from the gulf and pulling down more cold air and running into/utilizing the cold air in place from the 20/21 clipper to become a decent snow storm instead of just being another fairly dry clipper coming down from CA to usher in the arctic air for the 24-27 time frame. On to your question haha. The signals have gotten kind of cloudy for early Feb....But as I previously mentioned the strat points to feb 2-6 for a short wave and cool down (had feb 1-5 back on Jan 9 but cleaner data showed a delay so I pushed it back to 2-6 instead on my post Jan 10) but the GWO has Jan 29-Feb 4 with Feb 2 being the center date for the analog for the cooler air to settle in. With that being said I'll stick to a short wave and cooler shot for between feb. 2-6. It does appear the 2-6 should be a decent shot of cold air...a good cool down. With another shortwave/cooler air sometime between Feb. 6-10. Good news is so far I don't see any signals like I had popping up for the Jan 7-10 an 10-13 time frame for a warming for us going into early Feb. So now the main question really is what is the "status quo" temperatures of the atm (850mb) going to be that we deviate from for the cool downs for first week or two of Feb? So are we talking avg. 850's of -6 to -14C like this week's avg. gradient of temps from s. to north over the GLKS that produce near normal conditions or are we talking -10 to -20C so below normal or ...God for bid like 0 to -6C that would be above normal. Since I don't see any warm signal through Feb. 3. I think we are safe to say the SSW will save us from any major warm up through then and after Jan 24-27 may send the "status quo" 850 temps across the GLKS down below this week's level of -6 to -14C through the first week of Feb. And my normal disclaimer remember of course ahead of all these short waves will be a southerly flow, so the strong the storm the stronger the flow from the south and the warmer the temp spikes will be in the day prior to the short wave arriving. Also, once we see what the MJO does this next week will also give a better idea on what kind of temp anomalies to expect for the beginning of Feb. If we can get it to pass at least half way through 7 at a decent amp. some analogs from that point are showing a pretty good below normal temp departure for Jan 29-Feb 2. time frame. But the more the models keep stalling the progression of the MJO the farther back the cold anomalies are getting pushed back in the analogs. Mike V. and Adam says this weakening/looping of the MJO in the dynamic models is expected b/c the signal weakens over the Western Hem. and Atlantic so it's better to follow the statistical and filtered analyses, which the MJO analog models don't use. But if you look at the filtered analysis they show the MJO roaring through at least 7 and the one that Mike recommends shows it going into 8. Which would keep the cold train rolling falling in line with the idea of another decent cold shot for Jan 29-Feb 4. And the GWO analogs would support that the MJO will continue through 7 since MJO and GWO are tied. The GWO just gives you a stronger signal and more lead time. So with that...all the dates from the Strat. GWO and MJO would then over lap for cold air Jan 29-Feb. 4. Good analysis. What are your thoughts for the Jan 20/21 clipper? Do you think it will be a very dry one or more robust like todays 12z euro showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 00z 84hr nam looks interesting. funny thing is the 18z nogaps is also sending a storm up the ov around 120 ( although mostly rain). usually that model is flatter than a bolemic runway model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The 0z GFS has the -15C 850 mb temperature line over Toronto at 7pm on Thursday, yet the forecast high for that day is in the mid 30s. Is there really that much of a different between surface temperatures and 850 mb temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 SO 00z Nam sure looks very interesting.... THIS_ http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Even if the polar vortex plunges south into the region we can only get so cold with no snow cover. In 2009 we had 17 inches of powder during the second week of January. On the 15th we cratered to -29F, which set a new all-time record. The high temp that day was -12F. Yeah the lack of snow cover, let alone deep snow cover over a wide area makes the whole cold potential a big meh to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 SO 00z Nam sure looks very interesting.... THIS_ http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/69/bozoz.jpg/'> The NAM being a bozo as usual lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM being a bozo as usual lol. LOL!...You never know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 00z GFS has 850 mb temps getting down around -23C here next week. Snowcover or not, that would be pretty respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 00z GFS has 850 mb temps getting down around -23C here next week. Snowcover or not, that would be pretty respectable. If that comes to pass, then absolutely. Just would seem to be a bit of a shame considering that snow cover is usually pretty widespread in mid Jan. I think we only went below zero once or twice last winter, and still haven't this winter. That's absolutely stunning to me, so we're definitely long overdue for some true arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 If that comes to pass, then absolutely. Just would seem to be a bit of a shame considering that snow cover is usually pretty widespread in mid Jan. I think we only went below zero once or twice last winter, and still haven't this winter. That's absolutely stunning to me, so we're definitely long overdue for some true arctic air. I'd like some snow but am also interested to see how cold it would get without it. Maybe in the next few days I will check to see how often we've had below zero temps with no snowcover (though the no snowcover part is not a done deal yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Wanted to mention...the CFS weeklies are nonstop cold through mid-Feb (when they stop). While CFS in general is a joke, i cannot remember when they showed so much cold for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 bingo I'd like some snow but am also interested to see how cold it would get without it. Maybe in the next few days I will check to see how often we've had below zero temps with no snowcover (though the no snowcover part is not a done deal yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The NAM being a bozo as usual lol. And that's why... you don't post about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Good analysis. What are your thoughts for the Jan 20/21 clipper? Do you think it will be a very dry one or more robust like todays 12z euro showed? Thanks. I haven't really looked at it close enough. Clippers are fickle characters...you probably know better than any of us each one is unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks. I haven't really looked at it close enough. Clippers are fickle characters...you probably know better than any of us each one is unique. true lol. It means nothing but I just hate seeing the GFS so dry. As long as we can get SOME snow down ill be happy with this bitter cold on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'd like some snow but am also interested to see how cold it would get without it. Maybe in the next few days I will check to see how often we've had below zero temps with no snowcover (though the no snowcover part is not a done deal yet). I'll pass on the frozen pipes. Personally i thought tonights GFS run was a nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'll pass on the frozen pipes. Personally i thought tonights GFS run was a nice improvement. I guess honestly qpf is the last thing you want to look at in the LR gfs lol. The way shortwaves interact with the lakes is always a crapshoot until the event is almost here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I guess honestly qpf is the last thing you want to look at in the LR gfs lol. The way shortwaves interact with the lakes is always a crapshoot until the event is almost here. ? Looking at the GFS locally it looked like nothing more than cold and a few clippers going to the North. I will pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'll pass on the frozen pipes. Personally i thought tonights GFS run was a nice improvement. Well yeah, that wouldn't be good. Started that below zero with little/no snowcover project for LAF. I found 50 occurrences between 1901-1920 on days with snowcover of 0-1". Will hopefully finish it up in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 latest GFS just doesn't look that cold until a brief shot in fantasy range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 latest GFS just doesn't look that cold until a brief shot in fantasy range Yep the longevity of this cold shot is really starting to look muted. Personally I am glad, as the cold air with no snow cover doesn't do much for me. I'd rather we have slightly below normal temps with a storm track near by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 That is one giant ridge poping out west as displayed on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 384hrs of boring weather on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Looks like a couple days of could of the GFS. Nothing extreme for these parts. Our average high goes up a degree here today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 text soundings on GFS thru 180 hrs for CMH precip: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 LOT extended HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY MOVESOVER THE APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST WITHANOTHER ROUND OF WAA EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPSLOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...PERHAPS REACHING 40ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSESTHROUGH WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP ONCEAGAIN PASSING TO OUR NORTH. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOWS COLD FRONTWILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER SHOT OF MORESEASONABLE AIR FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPEARS TOREMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA YET AGAIN KEEPING THE MUCH COLDER AIRBOTTLED UP JUST TO OUR NORTH. IF THIS KEEPS UP WINTER 2012-2013 MAYBE KNOWN AS THE WINTER THAT WASNT MUCH TO THE DISMAY OF THISFORECASTER. punting on January is starting to look like a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 LOT extended punting on January is starting to look like a good call Interesting to see an NWS discussion like that....almost a tone of weenie frustration. I was reading through the Chicago record thread. That's some amazing stuff. The most shocking has to be the longest without an 1"+ snowfall. Unreal. If ma nature really does even things out, you guys are in line for one hell of a storm at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 LOT extended punting on January is starting to look like a good call Interesting to see an NWS discussion like that....almost a tone of weenie frustration. I was reading through the Chicago record thread. That's some amazing stuff. The most shocking has to be the longest without an 1"+ snowfall. Unreal. If ma nature really does even things out, you guys are in line for one hell of a storm at some point. Chicago is going to pay for those back-to-back-to-back 50+ inch winters and 2 storms bigger than anything to hit SE Michigan in 35 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Chicago is going to pay for those back-to-back-to-back 50+ inch winters and 2 storms bigger than anything to hit SE Michigan in 35 years. Yeah because this makes any sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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