Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Meltdown watch should be issued around the 12th. Yeah, winter lovers/people should find the tallest trees. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well, Detroit had strings of bad winters in the 1940s and 1990s, yet I wouldn't say things overall have been less snowy. While things have been exceptionally bad for Toronto, the fact of the matter is you guys still have latitude on your side in terms of seeing winter weather (unlike NC and Texas), if nothing else. So things has to change for the better eventually. As far as big storms, Toronto (like Detroit) just isn't a good geographic location for them, thanks to the Apps. Mountains. Not only do we lack the moisture source for the big dumps (since we're so far away from the Atlantic and GOM), but the downsloping from the mountains prevents storm tracks/development that would normally favor heavy snowfalls. Quite frankly, you're better of living in Chicago or Minneapolis if you want much better big storm potential AND to constantly see snow on the ground (Chicago's recent futility record notwithstanding). Like Detroit, Toronto's bread and butter are Texas Hookers and Clippers, both of which have been lacking overall since 2008-2009 due to the insane -NAO from 2009 to 2011 and the horrible pattern in the Pacific from 2011 to now. January 1999 was just all around odd, so I doubt we ever see something like that again. The 1920s till 1964-65 winter was the worst for here with a couple of exceptions like 51-52. The 90s did have a few crappy ones as well. It has been steadily downhill here since 2008-09. Ofcourse 08-09 holds the record for snowiest winter so yeah that wont happen again for a good long while so a downward trend was expected. Still not easy to take. It is hard to say about the big one ( 18+ ) and when that will be for this area? Even though it has been 30+ years since one landed here there was 3 such events between Jan 67, 78, and Jan 79. So it could be a very long time before another hits or may not. Changing climate does not help either. So yeah i wont try and guess on that one as it could be next year or not for another 10+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah, winter lovers/people should find the tallest trees. Torch. I think the models etc are way overdoing it with the torch/end of winter stuff. Believe me i am way down in the dumps with this winter and wanna write it off ( kinda do as far as MY backyard goes with SNOW ) but common sense says don't. While it is not impossible that winter ends quick there is alot going against it. And i don't care who is saying what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well, Detroit had strings of bad winters in the 1940s and 1990s, yet I wouldn't say things overall have been less snowy. While things have been exceptionally bad for Toronto, the fact of the matter is you guys still have latitude on your side in terms of seeing winter weather (unlike NC and Texas), if nothing else. So things has to change for the better eventually. As far as big storms, Toronto (like Detroit) just isn't a good geographic location for them, thanks to the Apps. Mountains. Not only do we lack the moisture source for the big dumps (since we're so far away from the Atlantic and GOM), but the downsloping from the mountains prevents storm tracks/development that would normally favor heavy snowfalls. Quite frankly, you're better of living in Chicago or Minneapolis if you want much better big storm potential AND to constantly see snow on the ground (Chicago's recent futility record notwithstanding). Like Detroit, Toronto's bread and butter are Texas Hookers and Clippers, both of which have been lacking overall since 2008-2009 due to the insane -NAO from 2009 to 2011 and the horrible pattern in the Pacific from 2011 to now. January 1999 was just all around odd, so I doubt we ever see something like that again. I was going to post the decadal #s but we've been through that enough. The winters here, since 2009-10, while extreme in their paucity of snowfall, fit nicely into an overall pattern of declining snowfall that started about 100 years ago. And this decline in snowfall seems to be localized to Toronto so comparing trends in Detroit is like comparing apples and oranges. I agree about the Apps screwing us out of monster snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think the models etc are way overdoing it with the torch/end of winter stuff. Believe me i am way down in the dumps with this winter and wanna write it off ( kinda do as far as MY backyard goes with SNOW ) but common sense says don't. While it is not impossible that winter ends quick there is alot going against it. And i don't care who is saying what. Euro weeklies syndrome. Alas, I'm in the wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 While it is not impossible that winter ends quick there is alot going against it. And i don't care who is saying what. What about this guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I truly don't see much hope the rest of the way. Trends this Winter haven't been in our favor cyclone and I have a strong suspicion things will flip after the 20th or so and bye bye snow. Yeah pretty much been another disaster winter for these parts. A few areas around the MW/GL have done better than last winter, which is good to see. For us it's quite a bit worse, which is astounding considering last season. Oh well. I'm starting to look more and more towards spring and chasing everyday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah pretty much been another disaster winter for these parts. A few areas around the MW/GL have done better than last winter, which is good to see. For us it's quite a bit worse, which is astounding considering last season. Oh well. I'm starting to look more and more towards spring and chasing everyday now. We need December 2010 to return. Well, maybe next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We need December 2010 to return. Well, maybe next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Feb 2007 as well. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Feb 2007 as well. this Next winter a hybrid of December 2000, January 1978, February 2007 and March 1906? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Next winter a hybrid of December 2000, January 1978, February 2007 and March 1906? 100"+ winter. Have to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 100"+ winter. Have to... Wonder if we could ever pull that off down here. I'm gonna say probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We need December 2010 to return. Well, maybe next winter. Dec '10 was definitely nice. Would love to have another month like that again someday. We had two recent seasons in a row that sucked (04/05 and 05/06), so having two in a row suck isn't all that surprising the more I think about it. These two should definitely beat the 04-06 era though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Wonder if we could ever pull that off down here. I'm gonna say probably not. Yeah, no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 I was going to post the decadal #s but we've been through that enough. The winters here, since 2009-10, while extreme in their paucity of snowfall, fit nicely into an overall pattern of declining snowfall that started about 100 years ago. And this decline in snowfall seems to be localized to Toronto so comparing trends in Detroit is like comparing apples and oranges. I agree about the Apps screwing us out of monster snowstorms. I definitely believe that Toronto's averages are declining given the extremely snowless winters recently. Dertroit's averages also declined somewhere between 30-40" back during the 1930s-1960s, which weren't very snow decades for us. Now it's back up in the 40"-45" range after the very snowy 2000s (and it also went back up in that range after the very snowy 70s). I just have a hard time believing Toronto is becoming "less snowy", at least to the point where you must move if you simply like snow. As for Detroit, when you remove the extremely snowy Februaries in 2010 and 2011, our winters haven't been stellar either. 2/3 of our seasonal snowfall in 2009-2010 fell in February, while almost 1/2 of our seasonal snowfall in 2011-2011 fell in February. I think the lack of snow in Toronto recently is can be attributed, at least some, to bad luck, just like Chicago's recent futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Dec '10 was definitely nice. Would love to have another month like that again someday. We had two recent seasons in a row that sucked (04/05 and 05/06), so having two in a row suck isn't all that surprising the more I think about it. These two should definitely beat the 04-06 era though. Using MLI as your closest first order long term station, back-to-back suck (sub 20" seasons) if you will... 1919-20: 16.3" 1920-21: 14.0" 1921-22: 13.0" 1926-27: 19.7" 1927-28: 14.5" 1932-33: 14.4" 1933-34: 16.4" 1936-37: 17.2" 1937-38: 16.5" 1948-49: 16.0" 1949-50: 15.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yeah, no chance. On the optimistic side, we only have a hundred some years of snow records so maybe it's not entirely impossible but extraordinarily unlikely for sure. A 75" season would be a little more within reach but even that is hard to pull off here in the tropics as you like to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Using MLI as your closest first order long term station, back-to-back suck (sub 20" seasons) if you will... 1919-20: 16.3" 1920-21: 14.0" 1921-22: 13.0" 1926-27: 19.7" 1927-28: 14.5" 1932-33: 14.4" 1933-34: 16.4" 1936-37: 17.2" 1937-38: 16.5" 1948-49: 16.0" 1949-50: 15.3" Thanks. Those are some ugly ugly seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On the optimistic side, we only have a hundred some years of snow records so maybe it's not entirely impossible but extraordinarily unlikely for sure. A 75" season would be a little more within reach but even that is hard to pull off here in the tropics as you like to say. Just two 60" seasons on the books, in recorded history. Gonna be tough getting to 75", but I hear you. Whether we realize it or not, 2010-11 was kinda "historical" for LAF...2007-08 was as well. Just not a great place for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 What about this guy? Wish caster. The JB of groundhogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/267/rodent.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just two 60" seasons on the books, in recorded history. Gonna be tough getting to 75", but I hear you. Whether we realize it or not, 2010-11 was kinda "historical" for LAF...2007-08 was as well. Just not a great place for snow. The first thing I think of when I think of 2010-11 is the GHD sleet assault. It sorta overrides the good snow memories from that winter. 2007-2008 could've been really something special if we had gotten in on the March 2008 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The first thing I think of when I think of 2010-11 is the GHD sleet assault. It sorta overrides the good snow memories from that winter. 2007-2008 could've been really something special if we had gotten in on the March 2008 storm. If March 2008 would've hit here and GHD is all snow...we're talking creme de la creme. Woulda coulda... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Personally this winter has redeemed itself somewhat locally in the last 2 weeks. Sure we haven't had a monster storm by any imagination but with near normal snowfall this winter I can't really complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well, Detroit had strings of bad winters in the 1940s and 1990s, yet I wouldn't say things overall have been less snowy. While things have been exceptionally bad for Toronto, the fact of the matter is you guys still have latitude on your side in terms of seeing winter weather (unlike NC and Texas), if nothing else. So things has to change for the better eventually. As far as big storms, Toronto (like Detroit) just isn't a good geographic location for them, thanks to the Apps. Mountains. Not only do we lack the moisture source for the big dumps (since we're so far away from the Atlantic and GOM), but the downsloping from the mountains prevents storm tracks/development that would normally favor heavy snowfalls. Quite frankly, you're better of living in Chicago or Minneapolis if you want much better big storm potential AND to constantly see snow on the ground (Chicago's recent futility record notwithstanding). Like Detroit, Toronto's bread and butter are Texas Hookers and Clippers, both of which have been lacking overall since 2008-2009 due to the insane -NAO from 2009 to 2011 and the horrible pattern in the Pacific from 2011 to now. January 1999 was just all around odd, so I doubt we ever see something like that again. Detroit actually sees a little more snowcover on average than Chicago. Minneapolis would be the place to go (usually) for snowcover by far, and whats odd (though it make sense) is they also see far more winter sunshine. Jan 1999 was a bipolar month, record snow and then a massive melt. Detroit has been doing very good with snow the last decade, not only doing good when the going is good but also certainly making the most of bad winters/patterns (see the snowfall and snowcover this winter). Im sure we will be the screwhole one of these winters, and also Toronto will be the jackpot one of these winters. Things dont last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Personally this winter has redeemed itself somewhat locally in the last 2 weeks. Sure we haven't had a monster storm by any imagination but with near normal snowfall this winter I can't really complain. I had made a comment during our Jan 11-13 torch that it was very odd to see almost all of Detroits snow come in a Christmas-week thump rather than our usual more frequent nickel and diming. Well since Ive said that, we are working on 2 weeks of nearly constant nickel and dime snowfall, scraping, brushing, sweeping, shoveling etc is a now near-daily occurrance with the exception of 2 days during our brief but potent torch Jan 29-30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I had made a comment during our Jan 11-13 torch that it was very odd to see almost all of Detroits snow come in a Christmas-week thump rather than our usual more frequent nickel and diming. Well since Ive said that, we are working on 2 weeks of nearly constant nickel and dime snowfall, scraping, brushing, sweeping, shoveling etc is a now near-daily occurrance with the exception of 2 days during our brief but potent torch Jan 29-30. Thanks for pointing that out, didn't realize it's been like this for that long...measurable snow here every day since Jan 21 except for the 28-30 period. 6 times >1", 4 times >2". 34.8" for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Very heavy snow coming down. Easily 2-3"/hr rates atm. The way this winter has gone, I have a feeling this will be the best event we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I noticed a complaint over in the Feb disco thread. We should post a departure map. Anyone whose area has positive departures, near normal, or small negative departures and complains should get this as their avatar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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