mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 SE bias of the GFS rearing its ugly head once again, eh? I would rather have what we have now rather than the reverse-- this is much better than the 12z EURO showing a whiff to the east and the 18z GFS showing a direct hit-- we know how many times that has worked out lol. correct Alex as I said yesterday I believe, the GFS showing an off shore scenario is never the kiss of death it is when it shows an inland/lakes cutter track plenty of big storms over the years that the GFS (and its not alone) showed ots track only to come up the coast plus, I think people may be forgetting the GGEM came way west at 12z as well, so Euro has support I know for those south of NE, GGEM wasn't so great, but it was a huge jump west; forget the qpf for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 midlo where are u getting the 18z ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HELLO 18Z UKIE 18z gfs ukie overlay color gfs Ukie is closer, but still a miss-72 hr 700mb RH, though it probably gets you Midlo and ENE as well http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC≥=1024x768&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 midlo where are u getting the 18z ukmet? http://vortex.plymouth.edu/grbcalc.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 http://vortex.plymou...du/grbcalc.html thx. weird, the plymouth link i use doesn't show it at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Interesting hook at DCA in the 72h UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 FWIW, 18Z NoGaps is a miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nogaps is alwAys a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Here's an alternate link for intermediate UKMET runs http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Both the 18Z NAM and GFS has the low development to far east of the hyper-baroclinic field. It is like the ocean will not add sensible heating to the surrounding atmosphere. For this reason and many other I feel a solution more like the ECMWF and Gem may be more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Leading to a more westerly track correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Leading to a more westerly track correct? Yes. Since there is a large contrast between the early-season warm ocean temps and the below normal cold land temps, the storm would tend to follow the coast, between the two extreme temperature zones, so long as there is nothing to push it out to sea, which I can't find anything that would as long as the PV retrogrades west as progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Both the 18Z NAM and GFS has the low development to far east of the hyper-baroclinic field. It is like the ocean will not add sensible heating to the surrounding atmosphere. For this reason and many other I feel a solution more like the ECMWF and Gem may be more correct. I was just talking about this same thing with some of the seniors and professors in the Meteo. department here at Millersville today. They mentioned the exact same thing. They pointed to the fact that the waters 50 miles offshore of DE are still +15°C while air temps are near or just below 0°C.. That makes for a really nice delta T to plug in as a start. Not to mention this as well... Way above Avg. Northern Gulf Stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I was just talking about this same thing with some of the seniors and professors in the Meteo. department here at Millersville today. They mentioned the exact same thing. They pointed to the fact that the waters 50 miles offshore of DE are still +15°C while air temps are near or just below 0°C.. That makes for a really nice delta T to plug in as a start. Not to mention this as well... Way above Avg. Northern Gulf Stream I am wondering if this is why the models , As of Now, seem to be tracking this up the Gulf stream until off the DELMARVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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