stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Nam is starting to roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 500mb map looks similar to 12z through the first 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It doesnt look like the 18Z NAM is going to do it but who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, at this point it doesn't look like the NAM will pull it in...but I'd rather have the Euro on our side than the NAm at this point to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It doesnt look like the 18Z NAM is going to do it but who cares. I don't think you can tell yet. 12Z GFS looks nearly identical at this time and it develops a really late hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't think you can tell yet. 12Z GFS looks nearly identical at this time and it develops a really late hook. True, but Im out to 54 and theres barely any precip on Carolina Coasts...Not saying it matters in the big picture but yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I don't think you can tell yet. 12Z GFS looks nearly identical at this time and it develops a really late hook. True, keep in mind it also depends where you are also. If you are in DC you need a fairly early development and it may be "too late". If you are in NYC or Boston, it might still be too soon to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wouldn't pay attention to 18z NAM for any event 48+ hours out, if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 True, but Im out to 54 and theres barely any precip on Carolina Coasts...Not saying it matters in the big picture but yea Yeah NAM is a no go through 60 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wouldn't pay attention to 18z NAM for any event 48+ hours out, if at all. Yeah agreed, just fun to look at. I don't think anyone will lose any sleep over an 18Z NAM no-go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wouldn't pay attention to 18z NAM for any event 48+ hours out, if at all. Face it, writing's on the wall. Lost cause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The 18Z NAM was having convective issues but even without them it would have still sent the storm too far east to be much of a factor, it clearly is still not seeing this as an event....as bad as the NAM is at that range I still would like to see it move more towards the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 So far through 36hr on the 18z GFS, seems very similar to the 12z at 42hr. Very slightly more westward in placement of the upper trof axis over the southern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ok guys, I'll split the good data discussion from this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The question is whether or not the Euro had "more data" on the shortwave that was coming ashore just as the NAM started running. Since it runs later it had more up-to-date data, that's for sure. Not sure who could answer whether it had "more" data on the shortwave, someone who knows the data ingest of both the Euro and NAM I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I have the 18z GFS out on a pay site. The overall presentation at 500mb looks much better for the MA through hour 54, a sharper trough and increasing heights off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Low placement in the Gulf about 50mi southwest of where the 12z placed it at 42hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 hard to see the s/w on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I have the 18z GFS out on a pay site. The overall presentation at 500mb looks much better for the MA through hour 54, a sharper trough and increasing heights off the coast. The PV is also slightly further NW on the 18z 54 h5 compared to the 12z 60 h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I think it's going to be west of 12z, but not by much..maybe 20mi? Probably not enough for the DC-NYC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Swing and a miss on the GFS. Epic showdown looming for 00Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Through hr 66, it is evident that there is less digging...I see a weaker surface reflection with a placement a bit further offshore than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 RGEM 18z run at 48 hrs has a ton of moisture poised off the east coast folks and not a bad looking trough either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, GFS is a huge miss. If the Euro hadn't come around, I'd be giving this thing up for dead. But it all comes down to 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, GFS is a huge miss. If the Euro hadn't come around, I'd be giving this thing up for dead. But it all comes down to 0z tonight The Euro is usually money 72 hours out. I am glad to have it on my side. Expect the GFS to come west dramatically at 00Z. We have all seen this movie before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro is usually money 72 hours out. I am glad to have it on my side. Expect the GFS to come west dramatically at 00Z. We have all seen this movie before... recall the Euro was the first to see the threat of the models the first time it showed it, it had us with a decent hit and took the slp up the Hudson, turning much of ENE to a mix or rain I'm wondering if it doesn't come back to that solution tonight or tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z GFS is having convective feedback issues...take a look at how it develops 2 lows, each centered around a ball of convection... According to the 500mb it was on the right path in the begining by developing a broad surface low near FLA, then out of nowhere the low jumps/ revdevelops due east.... -Nor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 18z GFS is having convective feedback issues...take a look at how it develops 2 lows, each centered around a ball of convection... According to the 500mb it was on the right path in the begining by developing a broad surface low near FLA, then out of nowhere the low jumps/ revdevelops due east.... -Nor agreed, it showed something similar yesterday with two lows off the carolina coast condensing down to one east of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The Euro is usually money 72 hours out. I am glad to have it on my side. Expect the GFS to come west dramatically at 00Z. We have all seen this movie before... SE bias of the GFS rearing its ugly head once again, eh? I would rather have what we have now rather than the reverse-- this is much better than the 12z EURO showing a whiff to the east and the 18z GFS showing a direct hit-- we know how many times that has worked out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 HELLO 18Z UKIE 18z gfs ukie overlay color gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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