Guess the 2013 Global Temperature Anomalies

[LakeEffectKing]

The massive divergence between UAH and RSS only demonstrates how unreliable they both are. 

 

GISS/Had4/NCDC/BEST all agree reasonably well, especially when we isolate areas of common coverage (given that the primary difference between all 4 is coverage). 

So are they a total waste of money?  Or do they have some value, in your opinion?

[Jonger]

Future investment should only go into atmospheric monitoring, in theory it eliminates UHI and other sensor issues. If calibrated correctly, we can remove all debate and controversy from global temp data sets, anyone who is happy with human hands fiddling with data is a shill and most likely on the dole for the industry.

[skierinvermont]

So are they a total waste of money?  Or do they have some value, in your opinion?

 

No but they should be interpreted and understood in light of their uncertainty levels, which is substantially larger than that for surface based sources. 

 

 

A more sophisticated and well-funded satellite based system could probably yield more accurate results.

 

But then again, so could a more sophisticated surface based system as well.

 

Jonger's idea that satellites are better because they don't involve human hands is naive nonsense. Both surface and satellite systems use instrumentation to measure temperatures. Surface systems use a very accurate device that measures temperature directly, known as a thermometer. Satellite based systems use a slightly more complicated set of instrumentation and mathematical interpretation of results to indirectly measure temperature. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

No but they should be interpreted and understood in light of their uncertainty levels, which is substantially larger than that for surface based sources. 

 

 

A more sophisticated and well-funded satellite based system could probably yield more accurate results.

 

But then again, so could a more sophisticated surface based system as well.

 

Jonger's idea that satellites are better because they don't involve human hands is naive nonsense. Both surface and satellite systems use instrumentation to measure temperatures. Surface systems use a very accurate device that measures temperature directly, known as a thermometer. Satellite based systems use a slightly more complicated set of instrumentation and mathematical interpretation of results to indirectly measure temperature. 

 

 

I think the love for the sats comes down to the baselines.

 

If UAH was here back to 1951-1980 and had that baseline it would be much closer to the surface based ones.

 

 

It feels mostly like cognitive trickery to me.  

[Jonger]

I think the love for the sats comes down to the baselines.

 

If UAH was here back to 1951-1980 and had that baseline it would be much closer to the surface based ones.

 

 

It feels mostly like cognitive trickery to me.  

 

There is an additional anomaly associated with GISS, its not huge though. The real issue comes in with adjusted temps, the past keeps getting cooler and cooler and that makes GISS look steeper and steeper. Truly, we will never 100% know what the past was like, and I really don't think it matters.

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH measures temperature in the lower part of the troposphere, GISS at the surface.  why would we assume the TLTs would match the surface?

[tacoman25]

One problem with surface temp trends is that the massive increase in the number of humans in the past 150 years (around a 600% increase just since 1900) has resulted in huge surface changes to the global environment, with way more structures and materials that favor surface warming (concrete, asphalt, electric heat/lighting, etc). Though attempts have been made to adjust for this, the exact amount of surface warming as a result of human changes to the environment is very difficult to ascertain.

[LakeEffectKing]

I think the love for the sats comes down to the baselines.

 

If UAH was here back to 1951-1980 and had that baseline it would be much closer to the surface based ones.

 

 

It feels mostly like cognitive trickery to me.  

 

Frankly, I could care less about the baseline...all the temperture datasets over the last few decades generally follow similar enough trends to only quibble over a few minor weaknesses of any of them....the baselines really don't mean squat with regard to the trendline of any of them.   I was just picking Andy's brain regarding his "unreliable" characterization of the satellites.

[skierinvermont]

One problem with surface temp trends is that the massive increase in the number of humans in the past 150 years (around a 600% increase just since 1900) has resulted in huge surface changes to the global environment, with way more structures and materials that favor surface warming (concrete, asphalt, electric heat/lighting, etc). Though attempts have been made to adjust for this detailed studies have been performed to quantify this, the exact amount of surface warming as a result of human changes to the environment is very difficult to ascertain and have quantified the level of uncertainty remaining.

 

corrected

[ORH_wxman]

UAH measures temperature in the lower part of the troposphere, GISS at the surface.  why would we assume the TLTs would match the surface?

 

 

We are interested in the TLT because it should be warming faster than the surface.

[HailMan06]

There is an additional anomaly associated with GISS, its not huge though. The real issue comes in with adjusted temps, the past keeps getting cooler and cooler and that makes GISS look steeper and steeper. Truly, we will never 100% know what the past was like, and I really don't think it matters.

 

temps.jpg

I do not see anything significantly contridictory between those two graphs. The lower slope of UAH is a result of the greater range of the X-scale and smaller range of the Y scale.

[HailMan06]

Those two graphs do not contridict each other. The lower slope of UAH is a result of the greater range of the X-scale and smaller range Y scale.

To add to that the BEST study released last year further confirms that there is no significant difference between the satellites and surface-based thermometers:

 

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings

[tacoman25]

corrected

 

Believe what you want. The issue of surface changes due to humans is far more complex than making some adjustments around cities for UHI changes.

[skierinvermont]

Believe what you want. The issue of surface changes due to humans is far more complex than making some adjustments around cities for UHI changes.

 

Methods which use only rural, well-sited thermometers show the same trend as GISS, Had4, BEST etc. This proves that the adjustments are effective and result in no mean bias. 

[Jonger]

Believe what you want. The issue of surface changes due to humans is far more complex than making some adjustments around cities for UHI changes.

 

Methods which use only rural, well-sited thermometers show the same trend as GISS, Had4, BEST etc. This proves that the adjustments are effective and result in no mean bias. 

Of course they will have the same trend.... If one station is artificially higher by 2 degrees, I still expect it to rise in a warm year against its +2 baseline.

There aren't many rural stations that have 100 year records to compare to, most long-term records are in metropolitan areas.

[Mallow]

 

Believe what you want. The issue of surface changes due to humans is far more complex than making some adjustments around cities for UHI changes.

 

 

Methods which use only rural, well-sited thermometers show the same trend as GISS, Had4, BEST etc. This proves that the adjustments are effective and result in no mean bias. 

 

 

Thank you. I was about to say the same.

[The_Global_Warmer]

When we look at weatherbell so far in November.  We get a .058C+ reading.  A few days ago it was down to .039C.  The last two days or so the dailies have jumped to .15 to .20C.  It was at .20C at 00z Nov 9th.  

 

 

So we will probably see the monthlies go up to .075C or so soon if we don't see an abrupt drop.  Which could also happen.  Because I have no clue at this point.

 

But super AO+ sides with warmer than normal.  

[The_Global_Warmer]

The Indian Ocean has dramatically warmed.  ENSO is deceiving a bit.  The Eastern Pacific has cooled I think overall.  We can see cold anomalies form by San Francisco and go into the EPAC.  Also off the coast of SA.  Over a large region vs the small warmth along just North of the Equatorial belt.  

 

And just North of Antarctica.  

 

 

 

[Jonger]

When we look at weatherbell so far in November.  We get a .058C+ reading.  A few days ago it was down to .039C.  The last two days or so the dailies have jumped to .15 to .20C.  It was at .20C at 00z Nov 9th.  

 

 

So we will probably see the monthlies go up to .075C or so soon if we don't see an abrupt drop.  Which could also happen.  Because I have no clue at this point.

 

But super AO+ sides with warmer than normal.  

 

 

Probably will since ice covered water will still show up as ice covered whether its mega cold or above normal.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well. The CFS in 12 hours jumps to .066C and it still around .20C.  So its probably going to keep rising quickly for the short term.  

 

Channel 6 temps from amsu took a dip at the end of October into early November.  They are now back above 2012.  Which was warm in November. 

[skierinvermont]

Probably will since ice covered water will still show up as ice covered whether its mega cold or above normal.

 

What does this have to do with global temperature?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well. The CFS in 12 hours jumps to .066C and it still around .20C.  So its probably going to keep rising quickly for the short term.  

 

Channel 6 temps from amsu took a dip at the end of October into early November.  They are now back above 2012.  Which was warm in November. 

 

 

CFS out to 18Z is up to .070C.  I didn't think we would only need one day to go back up to .075C or higher.

 

 

The dailies are up to .22C.  

 

 

 

I am starting to think GISS will finish around .61 to .62C on the year.  Or to 5 on GISSTEMP on record.

I also got UAH at 4th warmest on record or 5th pending November. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS out to 18Z is up to .070C.  I didn't think we would only need one day to go back up to .075C or higher.

 

 

The dailies are up to .22C.  

 

 

 

I am starting to think GISS will finish around .61 to .62C on the year.  Or to 5 on GISSTEMP on record.

I also got UAH at 4th warmest on record or 5th pending November. 

 

 

Well my bad y'all.

 

about 10 hour ago or so I called for .075C on Weatherbell soon.

 

Well it's here in one days worth of data.  

 

 

I didn't expect it to be this soon.

 

So officially through 11-10-13 00z.  Or the first 1/3rd of November we are at .075C on  Weatherbell.  This would translate to a .625C on GISS or .575 to .675C.

 

The dailies are up to .25C.  

 

November 2012 finished with a .188C on Weatherbell.  November of 2012 was a .70C on Giss.  The translation worked out well.  

[The_Global_Warmer]

If October-December on GISS averages .65C The yearly GISS temp will finish at .61C.  Which would also be tied with 1998 as 4th warmest on GISStemp. 

 

if October-December on GISS averages .70C The yearly GISS temp will finish at 62C or tied for 3rd warmest on GISS.

 

It will be at .60C if it finishes at .61C or higher.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ok.  So far on the year we are at .59C on GISS.  This would put 2013 as the 8th warmest year on record for GISS.

 

right now CFS is at .130C.  So if GISS finishes with a .68C for November then GISS will be a .598C going into December. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC: October comes in at .63C.
 

 

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for October 2013 was the seventh highest for October on record, at 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.98°C (1.76°F) above the 20^th century average of 9.3°C (48.7°F)—tying with 2012 as the eighth warmest October on record. For the ocean, the October global sea surface temperature was 0.50°C (0.90°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.9°C (60.6°F) and the eighth highest for October on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–October period (year-to-date) was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F). The first ten months of 2013 ranked as the seventh warmest such period on record.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

So through October.        NCDC: .60C      GISS:   .59C

 

With CFS now at .147C through 00z19NOV2013.  And at .33C on the dailies.  It's likely November will be .70 to .75C for both GISS/NCDC.

 

 

If NCDC finishes at .70C for November it will be at .608C(.61C) going into December.

If GISS finishes at .70C for November it will be at .602C(.60C) going into December.

 

Assuming a .70C finish for December as well.  GISS finishes the year at .608(.61C) tied for 6th warmest on record.

Assuming a .70C finish for December as well.  NCDC finishes the year at .616(.62C).  Have no idea where it ranks.

 

At this point.  I would say Don is looking solid for nailing GISS.  I think I am out of the running.  I doubt December is anywhere near cold enough to support a drop on GISS that would get it back down to .59C.  I would say skier has a better shot than I do.  Especially if GISS posts a .75C or higher for November. 

 

For NCDC I would say Mallow and I are looking pretty good.  But there is a decent chance we end up to low and it falls at .62C between Don and the two of us.  I would say it's most likely to land right on .61C. 

 

 

 

 

 

Guesses to date:

 

GISS:

Don Sutherland: +0.60°C

Frivolousz21: +0.58°C

Jonger1150: +0.51°C

Mallow: +0.57°C

NZucker: +0.51°C

Skierinvermont: +0.61°C

Snowlover123: +0.50°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.55°C

 

NCDC:

Don Sutherland: +0.63°C

Frivolousz21: +0.61°C

Jonger1150: +0.57°C

Mallow: +0.61°C

NZucker: +0.54°C

Skierinvermont: +0.64°C

Snowlover123: +0.53°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.59°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

The trend in recent years has been for the winter to turn much colder in the NH than the warm season. I don't think it would be shocking for one or both of the next couple months to come in below .6C on GISS.

 

I do think this thread is kind of lacking, as it only includes the two temperatures sources that have been running the warmest in recent years.

 

NCDC: 7th warmest so far on the year.

UAH: 4th warmest so far on the year.

GISS: 8th warmest so far on the year.

 

 

If UAH extended back another 100 years it would still be 4th warmest on it's record.

 

So technically speaking this thread lacks the warmest data set for 2013.

[skierinvermont]

Assuming November comes in at .7, then Dec must only come in at .66 for GISS to finish at .61. I would favor my .61 over Don's .60.

 

NCDC would finish around .62 somewhere between you+ mallow vs Don.

 

All four of us should do well though.

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, GISS data will be available on 1/21.