Snow_Miser Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Through April: NCDC: +0.56 Degrees C GISS: +0.55 Degrees C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Through June: GISS: +0.57. I'm probably going to be too cool with my forecast, which was largely due to my prediction assuming a La Nina state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Through June: GISS: +0.57. I'm probably going to be too warm with my forecast, which was largely due to my prediction assuming a La Nina state. Too cold you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Too cold you mean. Yep, that's what I meant. Thanks for catching my typo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 14, 2013 Share Posted September 14, 2013 Bumping this thread. Some of the previous monthly GISS values were revised downward. Through August: GISS: +0.56 Degrees C. The mean guess for GISS isn't looking too bad so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted September 15, 2013 Share Posted September 15, 2013 Bumping this thread. Some of the previous monthly GISS values were revised downward. Through August: GISS: +0.56 Degrees C. The mean guess for GISS isn't looking too bad so far. I would guess the final 4 months average at +.68 which would put us at .60 for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 Through September with 3 months to go: .59 for GISS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 GISS is going to have to come in below .60C for more than one month the rest of the year to not move into the the top 5 or so warmest years on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 30, 2013 Author Share Posted October 30, 2013 GISS is going to have to come in below .60C for more than one month the rest of the year to not move into the the top 5 or so warmest years on record. A lot of the warmest years had very warm October-December periods. 10 Warmest Years: 1. 2010 +0.674°C 2. 2005 +0.661°C 3. 2007 +0.627°C 4. 1998 +0.615°C 5. 2002 +0.614°C 6. 2003 +0.600°C 7. 2006 +0.596°C 8. 2013 +0.588°C (6th warmest January-September) 9. 2012 +0.581°C 10. 2011 +0.558°C 2010, 2005, 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2012 all had October-December anomalies of +0.60°C or above and both 2005 and 2006 had October-December anomalies > +0.70°C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 30, 2013 Share Posted October 30, 2013 It's between Don and I most likely now I think for GISS (I didn't check NCDC but I'm guessing the same is true for that). I'm .61 and he is .60. The rest of the year needs to average .66 to get us to my .61. I was the highest guess. And despite ENSO averaging under -.3 for the year, we may exceed my guess. My guess was based on an ONI of +.1, so it was slightly warmer than I expected given an actual ONI of -.3. Had the ONI averaged +.1, the globe would probably have averaged closer to +.65. Friv needs the remainder of the year to average .60 or lower to keep the year at or below .59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 October is gonna be close to 0.60 on GISS i think...its right at 0.05 on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 In retrospect, I would say Friv, Don and I each have about a 1/3 chance. I'd probably favor Don slightly at this point. All 3 should be within a few hundredths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I am also amazed that it turned out this warm given the ENSO state. My prediction was based on a weak nino or a warmer enso region sst wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 I am also amazed that it turned out this warm given the ENSO state. My prediction was based on a weak nino or a warmer enso region sst wise. 25% of the year isn't in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted October 31, 2013 Share Posted October 31, 2013 25% of the year isn't in yet. So? It's unlikely to change the result by more than a few hundredths of a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 With global ssta bottoming out around .22C and rising a bit and the daily charts show some big warmth over the Indian Ocean popping up. We are going to be hard pressed to see the next couple months go below .60C on GISS without a major cold outbreak over the Northern Hemisphere continents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The trend in recent years has been for the winter to turn much colder in the NH than the warm season. I don't think it would be shocking for one or both of the next couple months to come in below .6C on GISS. I do think this thread is kind of lacking, as it only includes the two temperatures sources that have been running the warmest in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The trend in recent years has been for the winter to turn much colder in the NH than the warm season. I don't think it would be shocking for one or both of the next couple months to come in below .6C on GISS. I do think this thread is kind of lacking, as it only includes the two temperatures sources that have been running the warmest in recent years. Isn't Sept-Oct usually the warmest months of the year globally? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Isn't Sept-Oct usually the warmest months of the year globally? Yes, I believe those months have had the warmest anomalies on average the past 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The trend in recent years has been for the winter to turn much colder in the NH than the warm season. I don't think it would be shocking for one or both of the next couple months to come in below .6C on GISS. I do think this thread is kind of lacking, as it only includes the two temperatures sources that have been running the warmest in recent years. What do you propose we use? We could use UAH, but the versions keep changing. RSS has a notorious cold bias to it and it does not include data at any of the poles. HADCrut4 we could use, but that also is missing data at the poles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 If we add UAH to this thread. It is currently on pace for the 4th warmest year in it's dataset. Maybe hadcrut4 is cooler than GISS, NCDC, and UAH. Last December cooled off so much because the AO tanked and we had the epic Asian cold outbreak last December. ENSO was also trending negative. Where as it's trending positive now and expected to warm more as we head into winter. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are near record highs still. If we go into this winter without a PV sitting South over a large land region I can't anything near how last December shook out. Expecially with ENSO continuing to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 If we add UAH to this thread. It is currently on pace for the 4th warmest year in it's dataset. Maybe hadcrut4 is cooler than GISS, NCDC, and UAH. Last December cooled off so much because the AO tanked and we had the epic Asian cold outbreak last December. ENSO was also trending negative. Where as it's trending positive now and expected to warm more as we head into winter. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are near record highs still. If we go into this winter without a PV sitting South over a large land region I can't anything near how last December shook out. Expecially with ENSO continuing to warm. ENSO trending down had almost nothing to do with last December's cold...in fact, ENSO last year peaked in September, which would tend to try and make December warmer with the usual lag. Most of the December cold had to do with the AO pattern producing the cold spots on the continents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 ENSO trending down had almost nothing to do with last December's cold...in fact, ENSO last year peaked in September, which would tend to try and make December warmer with the usual lag. Most of the December cold had to do with the AO pattern producing the cold spots on the continents. Yeah, January than bounced up above 0.6. It's one of the reason why it's so difficult to statistically isolate ENSO, it changes the global temperature very differently from month to month in context of many other elements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 What do you propose we use? We could use UAH, but the versions keep changing. RSS has a notorious cold bias to it and it does not include data at any of the poles. HADCrut4 we could use, but that also is missing data at the poles. We have used sources that don't include the whole Arctic before. They never have, so it's not like you're changing the standard for their anomalies. I don't remember hearing about this RSS "cold bias" a few years ago when UAH was running cooler. RSS has the coolest trend lately, but I could make the same argument that the source with the warmest trend lately has a "notorious warm bias". And there is no source that has real extensive data at the poles, just a lot of extrapolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 If we add UAH to this thread. It is currently on pace for the 4th warmest year in it's dataset. Maybe hadcrut4 is cooler than GISS, NCDC, and UAH. Last December cooled off so much because the AO tanked and we had the epic Asian cold outbreak last December. ENSO was also trending negative. Where as it's trending positive now and expected to warm more as we head into winter. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are near record highs still. If we go into this winter without a PV sitting South over a large land region I can't anything near how last December shook out. Expecially with ENSO continuing to warm. Why does that map look so much warmer than other SSTA ones I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 Why does that map look so much warmer than other SSTA ones I see? That looks about on par with the weatherbell map just by eyeballing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 We have used sources that don't include the whole Arctic before. They never have, so it's not like you're changing the standard for their anomalies. I don't remember hearing about this RSS "cold bias" a few years ago when UAH was running cooler. RSS has the coolest trend lately, but I could make the same argument that the source with the warmest trend lately has a "notorious warm bias". And there is no source that has real extensive data at the poles, just a lot of extrapolation. RSS is only missing one pole...it has up to 82.5N in the arctic. The remaining area missing is very small...its the southern hemisphere where its missing more as it only goes to 70S there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 If we add UAH to this thread. It is currently on pace for the 4th warmest year in it's dataset. Maybe hadcrut4 is cooler than GISS, NCDC, and UAH. Last December cooled off so much because the AO tanked and we had the epic Asian cold outbreak last December. ENSO was also trending negative. Where as it's trending positive now and expected to warm more as we head into winter. Also AMSU channel 6 temps are near record highs still. If we go into this winter without a PV sitting South over a large land region I can't anything near how last December shook out. Expecially with ENSO continuing to warm. There are several areas that look much cooler on this map. Baseline difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The image I posted is the 1971-2000 Climo that comes as the default option on the data set. It's the data Bob Tisdale uses. The daily images are a 5 day running mean. The second image probably uses a 1981-2010 or newer or shorter baeline, The top image is the nomad3 data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 1, 2013 Share Posted November 1, 2013 The massive divergence between UAH and RSS only demonstrates how unreliable they both are. GISS/Had4/NCDC/BEST all agree reasonably well, especially when we isolate areas of common coverage (given that the primary difference between all 4 is coverage). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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