Guess the 2013 Global Temperature Anomalies

[donsutherland1]

Guess the GISS and NCDC global temperature anomalies for 2013.

Please try to get all guesses in by January 21, 2013 (two weeks from today)

Data Sources:
GISS: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C
NCDC: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat

This thread is for guesses and verifications, not discussion of climate change.

Note:
Verification of the 2012 guesses (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31410-guess-the-2012-global-temperature-anomalies/) will be completed when the GISS and UAH numbers are available (probably mid- to late-January).

 

Past Contest Results:

2011: GISS, UAH, Standardized Totals

2012: GISS, UAH, Standardized Totals

[The_Global_Warmer]

Don, I'd love to use UAH, but they are on 5.5 and will likely go onto 6.0 before the year ends, so not sure how we can convert it.

[donsutherland1]

Don, I'd love to use UAH, but they are on 5.5 and will likely go onto 6.0 before the year ends, so not sure how we can convert it.

 

Hopefully, next year we can go back to UAH, as there won't be any conversion-related issues.

[donsutherland1]

My guesses for 2013:

 

GISS: +0.60°C

NCDC: +0.63°C

[skierinvermont]

Don, did you mean to link to the met only stations version of GISS or the LOTI?

[skierinvermont]

GISS: .61

NCDC: .64

 

3rd warmest year on GISS, likely warmest if Nino returns by late summer.

 

Forecast based on neutral conditions for the year with 3-month lag.

[donsutherland1]

Don, did you mean to link to the met only stations version of GISS or the LOTI?

 

Thanks for catching this error. I used the wrong link. I meant to use LOTI and have fixed the link.

[skierinvermont]

Thanks for catching this error. I used the wrong link. I meant to use LOTI and have fixed the link.

 

It's neat that we both guessed nearly the same this year.. I didn't look at your guess until after I had made mine and we ended up just .01 apart. 

[donsutherland1]

It's neat that we both guessed nearly the same this year.. I didn't look at your guess until after I had made mine and we ended up just .01 apart. 

 

I agree. We both didn't assume the development of an El Niño this summer. Should a moderate or borderline moderate El Niño develop, I agree with your thought that 2013 could wind up being the warmest year on record. Overall, in terms of possible errors, I believe a warmer idea than my guess is probably more likely than a colder one.

[nzucker]

GISS: +.51

NCDC: +.54

 

Overall, not agreeing with the warmer guesses. Thinking we probably see a weak-moderate La Niña as the upcoming ENSO state along with a severely -PDO. 

[Snow_Miser]

GISS: +.51

NCDC: +.54

Overall, not agreeing with the warmer guesses. Thinking we probably see a weak-moderate La Niña as the upcoming ENSO state along with a severely -PDO.

I agree with this. We can already see the beginnings of a Nina forming in the Pacific, and given the 4-5 month lag an ENSO, we should be continuing to feel the effects of the cool tropical pacific throughout the year. I'd go with 0.50 for GISS and around 0.12 for UAH.

[Snow_Miser]

The -PDO should also stifle any growing El Niño in the pacific, if one does indeed try and develop this year.

[donsutherland1]

Guesses to date:

 

GISS:

Don Sutherland: +0.60°C

NZucker: +0.51°C

Skierinvermont: +0.61°C

 

NCDC:

Don Sutherland: +0.63°C

NZucker: +0.54°C

Skierinvermont: +0.64°C

 

 

 

 

[Snow_Miser]

Guesses to date:

GISS:

Don Sutherland: +0.60°C

NZucker: +0.51°C

Skierinvermont: +0.61°C

NCDC:

Don Sutherland: +0.63°C

NZucker: +0.54°C

Skierinvermont: +0.64°C

I'd go with around +0.50 Degrees C above the 20th Century Average for and GISS and +0.53 for NCDC. The GISS data for December 2012 came in, and December 2012 had an anomaly of +0.44 Degrees C above the 20th Century average. That's the 2nd coldest December in the last 12 years according to the data LEK posted in the 2012 Global Temperatures thread.

I expect further cooling of the Global Temperature Anomaly as the temperatures in the Nino 3.4 Region continue to fall quite rapidly:

[Mallow]

GISS: .57

NCDC: .61

 

ENSO-neutral, but with a -PDO.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Frivolousz21:

 

GISS: 0.58

NCDC: 0.61

[Jonger]

GISS: 0.51

NCDC: 0.57

[nzucker]

With the big dip in GISS and the continued cold airmasses over the Northern Hemisphere (now in Europe and eastern North America), I wonder if some of the guesses might be high. 2012 was fairly cool globally. Will 2013 be even cooler?

[skierinvermont]

With the big dip in GISS and the continued cold airmasses over the Northern Hemisphere (now in Europe and eastern North America), I wonder if some of the guesses might be high. 2012 was fairly cool globally. Will 2013 be even cooler?

 

Including the frigid December 2012, the last 4 months still averaged a toasty .62. That is the kind of warmth that will be carrying over into the start of 2013.

 

The beginning of 2012 was influenced by a peak trimonthly ONI reading of -1.0. The first 3 months of 2012 were a frigid .36, .39, and .49. Those readings were clearly related to the borderline moderate La Nina that had just occurred and was lingering. We are not and will not experience moderate La Nina conditions this winter/spring.

 

If we exclude those 3 readings from JFM (but still include the cold December), we get a mean of the other 9 months of 2012 of .61 - which coincidentally (I didn't do this until just now) is the same as my guess for 2012.

 

 

Perhaps more scientifically if 2012 averaged .54 with an annual 3-month lagged ONI of -.37, and next year I will guess the ONI averages +.1, that is a swing in the ONI of +.47, which would add .47*.105 = .05C to the global temp. Add another .02C for TSI remaining at high levels and perhaps going up a bit more, and we get .61 - again the same as my guess. In addition, 2012 was very slightly inexplicably cold based on TSI, ENSO, and volcanoes so whatever caused 2012 to be cold is likely to reverse in 2013. As my chart in the other thread shows, every year since 1980 has remained very close to the trendline and after "fluke" warm or cold years, there is always reversion back to the mean. This final reason is not my primary line of reasoning, however. Primarily I am relying on an increase in ENSO and the usually associated warming. 

 

So what is my expectation of an annual 3-month lagged ONI reading of +.1 based on?

 

You can already see El Nino brewing in the western subsurface. The CFS/IRI consensus gives a higher probability of El Nino than La Nina by June. Basically a straight up average of the models suggests +.1 for the year. The first half averages slightly negative, the second half slightly positive. 

[donsutherland1]

Guesses to date:

 

GISS:

Don Sutherland: +0.60°C

Frivolousz21: +0.58°C

Jonger1150: +0.51°C

Mallow: +0.57°C

NZucker: +0.51°C

Skierinvermont: +0.61°C

Snowlover123: +0.50°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.55°C

 

NCDC:

Don Sutherland: +0.63°C

Frivolousz21: +0.61°C

Jonger1150: +0.57°C

Mallow: +0.61°C

NZucker: +0.54°C

Skierinvermont: +0.64°C

Snowlover123: +0.53°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.59°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

With the big dip in GISS and the continued cold airmasses over the Northern Hemisphere (now in Europe and eastern North America), I wonder if some of the guesses might be high. 2012 was fairly cool globally. Will 2013 be even cooler?

 

I don't think 2012 was fairly cool.  Unless your looking at the last 15 years.

 

Global SST anomaly's are pretty warm still. 

[donsutherland1]

I don't think 2012 was fairly cool.  Unless your looking at the last 15 years.

 

Global SST anomaly's are pretty warm still. 

I agree. 2012 was the 9th warmest year on record (since 1880).

[Snow_Miser]

Through February:

 

GISS +0.55

NCDC +0.56

[The_Global_Warmer]

Giss in March came in at .59

 

up to .57 on the year now.

 

 

Way ahead of last year.

[Snow_Miser]

Giss in March came in at .59

 

up to .57 on the year now.

 

 

Way ahead of last year.

 

Looks like it tied March 2006 as the 10th warmest March on record. Pretty consistent with both UAH/RSS.

We still have 3/4 of the year to go. This can go either way.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Looks like it tied March 2006 as the 10th warmest March on record. Pretty consistent with both UAH/RSS.

We still have 3/4 of the year to go. This can go either way.

I am not sure I agree with that.

All signs attm point towards the next 6 months averaging warmer than this 3 month period.

global ssts are still very warm and almost always recently taking enso out more anamously warm during NH Summer.

Unless a nina rages by late Summer

[tacoman25]

Hopefully, next year we can go back to UAH, as there won't be any conversion-related issues.

 

Why not use RSS instead then? So we at least have one LT temperature source, and not just surface sources. I realize that RSS does not cover as much of the globe as UAH, but then again, GISS/NCDC have large regions of the globe poorly represented by land data.

 

I would think we would want as broad a perspective as possible.

[donsutherland1]

Why not use RSS instead then? So we at least have one LT temperature source, and not just surface sources. I realize that RSS does not cover as much of the globe as UAH, but then again, GISS/NCDC have large regions of the globe poorly represented by land data.

 

I would think we would want as broad a perspective as possible.

Do you have the link for RSS?

 

I'll add it next year.

[tacoman25]

Do you have the link for RSS?

 

I'll add it next year.

 

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC for March and the rest of 2013:

2013  1    0.54712013  2    0.60762013  3    0.5843

Brings the yearly average to.5800