Potential record warmth

[Guest Pamela]

I shouldn't say the globe has rapidly warmed these past few years, it's been more rising steadily but the U.S. has found itself to be in the hot spot of all this warming outside the much higher latitudes, which is just kind of terrible luck really.

All bad things come to an end; of this you can rest assured. 

[nzucker]

The globe is warming at an incredible rate especially over the U.S. these past few years. Eventually temperature below 20 will be impossible to come by and then the average annual snowfall could rapidly drop off. 

There's been little to no global warming since the early 2000s as shown by this combination of global temperature sources:

 

The Earth is no warmer than it was during the super cold and snowy winters of 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05.

[nzucker]

Today was a total bust here again. NWS had a high of 51F but we only made it to 45F. The low, however, was a disgustingly mild 41F. 

[TWCCraig]

There's been little to no global warming since the early 2000s as shown by this combination of global temperature sources:

wtinowarming.png

 

The Earth is no warmer than it was during the super cold and snowy winters of 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05.

 

Using a 3rd-party source for global temperatures, it's easier just to combine NASA's and NCDC's. That is just a horrible graph, it doesn't include anything before 1975, the mean temperature departure is wrong (y-axis), and that's not yearly global mean temperatures, using smoothed line graphs gives you a better picture.. Don't use 3rd-party sources for climate info, because they can have an extreme bias like that ridiculous graph.

[nzucker]

Using a 3rd-party source for global temperatures, it's easier just to combine NASA's and NCDC's. That is just a horrible graph, it doesn't include anything before 1975, the mean temperature departure is wrong (y-axis), and that's not yearly global mean temperatures, using smoothed line graphs gives you a better picture.. Don't use 3rd-party sources for climate info, because they can have an extreme bias like that ridiculous graph.

Actually the Wood for Trees index, which I posted, is a very accurate representation of global temperatures combining the satellite sources (UAH and RSS) and the surface-based sources (GISS and HadCRUT). It gives the most unbiased picture of global climate by integrating four sources.

First, it is accurate on the y-axis because the satellites show slightly less warming overall (about .14C/decade on UAH) than the surface sources (about .18C/decade on GISS since 1979 when we could compare with satellites.) Second, I am not interested in temperatures before 1975 because my point is that you can't blame the mild unsnowy winter on climate change since we hsven't warmed globally since the harsh winters NYC had in 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05. The earth is colder now and last winter than during those epic years.

[NEXtreme]

What a record warm day around here!   All that talk of 60's and even 70's??? ...  

[TWCCraig]

Actually the Wood for Trees index, which I posted, is a very accurate representation of global temperatures combining the satellite sources (UAH and RSS) and the surface-based sources (GISS and HadCRUT). It gives the most unbiased picture of global climate by integrating four sources.

First, it is accurate on the y-axis because the satellites show slightly less warming overall (about .14C/decade on UAH) than the surface sources (about .18C/decade on GISS since 1979 when we could compare with satellites.) Second, I am not interested in temperatures before 1975 because my point is that you can't blame the mild unsnowy winter on climate change since we hsven't warmed globally since the harsh winters NYC had in 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05. The earth is colder now and last winter than during those epic years.

 

To be honest, I'd rather trust surface observations than satellite data. The earth is not colder now, in fact, I definitely wouldn't be surprised if 2012 becomes the warmest year on record globally. I'm not blaming warm and mild winters completely on climate change. Furthermore, you can't start saying the earth is cooling when you claim it's been cooling since the early 2000's, that's not a long enough time period between now and then for you to start saying that we have been cooling. Record low arctic sea ice extent and an antarctic sea ice extent that's average, doesn't cut it for me either. Even further, try using smoothed temperature graphs that show yearly temp means compared to that graph where it constantly goes up and down. Also, La Nina has kept global temp anomalies down slightly over the past couple of years. Come back in 2020 when there's a large enough time frame to support your theory that the earth's been cooling. If the earth is cooling, then I would be a happy camper! But sadly, it's not.

[Guest Pamela]

Global temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been either steady or slowly falling ever since.  Buy it...you'll sleep better.  Just because your backyard has been stuck in a warm pattern for the last 24 months means zilch...

[NEXtreme]

To be honest, I'd rather trust surface observations than satellite data. The earth is not colder now, in fact, I definitely wouldn't be surprised if 2012 becomes the warmest year on record globally. I'm not blaming warm and mild winters completely on climate change. Furthermore, you can't start saying the earth is cooling when you claim it's been cooling since the early 2000's, that's not a long enough time period between now and then for you to start saying that we have been cooling. Record low arctic sea ice extent and an antarctic sea ice extent that's average, doesn't cut it for me either. Even further, try using smoothed temperature graphs that show yearly temp means compared to that graph where it constantly goes up and down. Also, La Nina has kept global temp anomalies down slightly over the past couple of years. Come back in 2020 when there's a large enough time frame to support your theory that the earth's been cooling. If the earth is cooling, then I would be a happy camper! But sadly, it's not.

"trust surface observations"

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/

 

[Snow_Miser]

To be honest, I'd rather trust surface observations than satellite data. The earth is not colder now, in fact, I definitely wouldn't be surprised if 2012 becomes the warmest year on record globally. I'm not blaming warm and mild winters completely on climate change. Furthermore, you can't start saying the earth is cooling when you claim it's been cooling since the early 2000's, that's not a long enough time period between now and then for you to start saying that we have been cooling. Record low arctic sea ice extent and an antarctic sea ice extent that's average, doesn't cut it for me either. Even further, try using smoothed temperature graphs that show yearly temp means compared to that graph where it constantly goes up and down. Also, La Nina has kept global temp anomalies down slightly over the past couple of years. Come back in 2020 when there's a large enough time frame to support your theory that the earth's been cooling. If the earth is cooling, then I would be a happy camper! But sadly, it's not.

Depending on what dataset you use, globally, 2012 came in as the 9-11th warmest.

[TWCCraig]

"trust surface observations"

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/

 

 

Haha, most biased web site out there. A remember a study, I'll post a link when I find it, that weather stations have a cool bias, not a warm bias. Anyway, what would make the earth cool since 1998? Nothing.

[TWCCraig]

Here it is

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1419

[nzucker]

The surface data (GISS and HadCRUT) shows the same plateau in warming since 2000...you can't say the Earth is cooling because the trend is still slightly positive, but it's pretty much a flat trend line:

 

Of course, the -PDO and La Niña, as well as low solar activity, have been major factors in the cooling trend. I think those will continue until 2020, however, and then we'll be outside the IPCC 95% confidence interval for computer modeling of global temperatures (the drop-off in temperatures in 07-08 and 10-11 also brought us near the edge of the confidence interval). I agree that the time frame is short to make any definitive claims. But it's pretty well known around here that global temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been basically flat, with a very weak positive trend, since.

To be honest, I'd rather trust surface observations than satellite data. The earth is not colder now, in fact, I definitely wouldn't be surprised if 2012 becomes the warmest year on record globally. I'm not blaming warm and mild winters completely on climate change. Furthermore, you can't start saying the earth is cooling when you claim it's been cooling since the early 2000's, that's not a long enough time period between now and then for you to start saying that we have been cooling. Record low arctic sea ice extent and an antarctic sea ice extent that's average, doesn't cut it for me either. Even further, try using smoothed temperature graphs that show yearly temp means compared to that graph where it constantly goes up and down. Also, La Nina has kept global temp anomalies down slightly over the past couple of years. Come back in 2020 when there's a large enough time frame to support your theory that the earth's been cooling. If the earth is cooling, then I would be a happy camper! But sadly, it's not.

[TWCCraig]

I can agree with that. Hopefully you're right. I'd love to see the earth cool.

[pazzo83]

The surface data (GISS and HadCRUT) shows the same plateau in warming since 2000...you can't say the Earth is cooling because the trend is still slightly positive, but it's pretty much a flat trend line:

plateauwarming.png

 

Of course, the -PDO and La Niña, as well as low solar activity, have been major factors in the cooling trend. I think those will continue until 2020, however, and then we'll be outside the IPCC 95% confidence interval for computer modeling of global temperatures (the drop-off in temperatures in 07-08 and 10-11 also brought us near the edge of the confidence interval). I agree that the time frame is short to make any definitive claims. But it's pretty well known around here that global temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been basically flat, with a very weak positive trend, since.

If there's been a positive trend since 1998, then by definition you can't claim that global temps peaked in that year (that doesn't make much sense).  You can only claim that the rate of change (i.e. the first derivative) peaked in 1998.

[nzucker]

If there's been a positive trend since 1998, then by definition you can't claim that global temps peaked in that year (that doesn't make much sense).  You can only claim that the rate of change (i.e. the first derivative) peaked in 1998.

 

The highest global temperatures were observed in 1998. However, the baseline has warmed very slightly since then. 

[BxEngine]

Do we clear out at all tomorrow to make a run at any records?

[TWCCraig]

Do we clear out at all tomorrow to make a run at any records?

 

Doubt we'll break records, never thought we really would. Might get 60's, but best bet would be mid 50's.

[PB GFI]

After reading Ryan Maue assesment of this past years Global temps they were up 4/ 100 th of a degree in 2012 not exactly a world on fire guys.

[PB GFI]

If there's been a positive trend since 1998, then by definition you can't claim that global temps peaked in that year (that doesn't make much sense).  You can only claim that the rate of change (i.e. the first derivative) peaked in 1998.

Chris since 98 we've seemed to have level off. However it's such a small snapshot. Not sure if u can take anything away from it either way. If we r warming. I hope it's only a little over the next 50 yrs. people could use the energy savings

[Guest Pamela]

Pending a lot of cloud cover, I really think many locations will hit 70+ this upcoming weekend. 

 

You were slightly off in the short to medium range...so we'll take your long range assessments (soon it will never again go below 20 F, eventually no more snow) with a grain of salt. 

[tmagan]

Fredericksburg, VA is 66 degrees at four in the morning.

[bluewave]

The surface data (GISS and HadCRUT) shows the same plateau in warming since 2000...you can't say the Earth is cooling because the trend is still slightly positive, but it's pretty much a flat trend line:

plateauwarming.png

 

Of course, the -PDO and La Niña, as well as low solar activity, have been major factors in the cooling trend. I think those will continue until 2020, however, and then we'll be outside the IPCC 95% confidence interval for computer modeling of global temperatures (the drop-off in temperatures in 07-08 and 10-11 also brought us near the edge of the confidence interval). I agree that the time frame is short to make any definitive claims. But it's pretty well known around here that global temperatures peaked in 1998 and have been basically flat, with a very weak positive trend, since.

 

Temperatures didn't peak in 1998 since 2010 was the warmest year on record so far.The underlying trend has been unchanged

in the last decade. You are seeing annual fluctuations due to El Nino and La Nina which is short term variability that is expected

over time. For example, the earth suddenly didn't warm in 1998. That was natural variability associated with the super El Nino.

You will notice how much warmer the La Nina was the last few years than it was in 99-00-01. If the temperatures were

steady, there would be no reason for this recent La Nina to be warmer than 99-00-01.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk

[Weathergun]

There's very narrow warm sector (like earthlight mentioned), from NYC to PHL. Central Park was at 57 at 7am, While EWR was 52. LGA 49,JFK 48.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=7&extents=37.422526,-79.650879,42.472097,-70.532227&density=1

 

000SXUS51 KOKX 141157OSOOKXNEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUPNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY700 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSCENTRAL PARK   CLOUDY    57  50  77 W7G18     30.03R HAZELAGUARDIA APRT DRZL/FOG  49  48  97 W6        30.01R VSB 1/4KENNEDY INTL   DRZL/FOG  48  48 100 S7        30.02R VSB 1/4NEWARK/LIBERTY DRZL/FOG  51  51 100 VRB3G18   30.01R VSB 1/2TETERBORO APRT FOG       50  50 100 CALM      29.99R VSB 1

[PB GFI]

Temperatures didn't peak in 1998 since 2010 was the warmest year on record so far.The underlying trend has been unchanged

in the last decade. You are seeing annual fluctuations due to El Nino and La Nina which is short term variability that is expected

over time. For example, the earth suddenly didn't warm in 1998. That was natural variability associated with the super El Nino.

You will notice how much warmer the La Nina was the last few years than it was in 99-00-01. If the temperatures were

steady, there would be no reason for this recent La Nina to be warmer than 99-00-01.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk

Chris. I can't open the vid. But that chart from 98 thats u show on the page i believe is air and water temp combined. Surface global temps alone have gone sideways. It's too small of a snapshot for to claim the earth isn't warming. But air temp alone since 98 hasn't gone up. Is it possible that in the coming 20 yrs we begin to ascend again sure. But thers an equal chance that we continue sideways. Either way lets hope any move is a slight one

[bluewave]

Chris. I can't open the vid. But that chart from 98 thats u show on the page i believe is air and water temp combined. Surface global temps alone have gone sideways. It's too small of a snapshot for to claim the earth isn't warming. But air temp alone since 98 hasn't gone up. Is it possible that in the coming 20 yrs we begin to ascend again sure. But thers an equal chance that we continue sideways. Either way lets hope any move is a slight one

 

The GISS site is a great reference to use with all the different temperature data sets. The Land stations alone show a greater rise

than sea and land combined. This is probably a result of the cooling in the Pacific with the -PDO.

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

[Snow_Miser]

Temperatures didn't peak in 1998 since 2010 was the warmest year on record so far.The underlying trend has been unchanged

in the last decade. You are seeing annual fluctuations due to El Nino and La Nina which is short term variability that is expected

over time. For example, the earth suddenly didn't warm in 1998. That was natural variability associated with the super El Nino.

You will notice how much warmer the La Nina was the last few years than it was in 99-00-01. If the temperatures were

steady, there would be no reason for this recent La Nina to be warmer than 99-00-01.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=u_0JZRIHFtk

 

2010 was not the warmest on record for many datasets..

[bluewave]

2010 was not the warmest on record for many datasets..

 

The major surface datasets agree.

[bluewave]

There's very narrow warm sector (like earthlight mentioned), from NYC to PHL. Central Park was at 57 at 7am, While EWR was 52. LGA 49,JFK 48.

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/gmap.php?zoom=7&extents=37.422526,-79.650879,42.472097,-70.532227&density=1

 

000SXUS51 KOKX 141157OSOOKXNEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN WEATHER ROUNDUPNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY700 AM EST MON JAN 14 2013CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKSCENTRAL PARK   CLOUDY    57  50  77 W7G18     30.03R HAZELAGUARDIA APRT DRZL/FOG  49  48  97 W6        30.01R VSB 1/4KENNEDY INTL   DRZL/FOG  48  48 100 S7        30.02R VSB 1/4NEWARK/LIBERTY DRZL/FOG  51  51 100 VRB3G18   30.01R VSB 1/2TETERBORO APRT FOG       50  50 100 CALM      29.99R VSB 1

 

All we need will be a few breaks of sun to see 60 degrees in spots.

 

[pazzo83]

59F now in the park.