bluewave Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 It looks like the current runs bring the 60's as far north as Central New Jersey, but the models have a tough time outside 72 hrs with determining how far the warm sector makes it this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 12Z data is trending toward an idea of keeping the > +10c 850's south of the Mason Dixon line, which would generally save the Northeast from major torching. Hopefully we can see this continue. Right now it looks like 50-55F will be the maximum temperatures for NYC northeastward. I could see PHL making 60s and DCA approaching 70. why do you say hopefully? dont get that at all? its going to be above normal anyway and in the mid 50s, why not just go all the way for 60s to 70 and a record high..something different in the weather world....50s is boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 why do you say hopefully? dont get that at all? its going to be above normal anyway and in the mid 50s, why not just go all the way for 60s to 70 and a record high..something different in the weather world....50s is boring I fully agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I hope we hit 60. Second January in a row playing basketball outside. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The 12z GFS Mos todayhas 59-60F for LGA,NYC, EWR on Sunday. 850mb temps are around +12C with light SSW flow, Sunday afternoon. Highs could still be warmer, depending on amount of cloudcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lets go big or go home. If we can't get a snowstorm in here we might as well enjoy some warm weather. I have the shorts and flip flops all ready to go for Sunday. Hopefully I won't be disapointed with 50's and drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwarn Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Lets go big or go home. If we can't get a snowstorm in here we might as well enjoy some warm weather. I have the shorts and flip flops all ready to go for Sunday. Hopefully I won't be disapointed with 50's and drizzle. Yeah, just like todays huge bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The Euro is warmer for Monday, but the DGEX is hinting that Toms River tries to make it to 70 degrees. Often the DGEX can get the day wrong but see the correct temperature signal. Once we get inside 72 hrs we should get good agreement on how far north the warm sector gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The Euro is warmer for Monday, but the DGEX is hinting that Toms River tries to make it to 70 degrees. Often the DGEX can get the day wrong but see the correct temperature signal. Once we get inside 72 hrs we should get good agreement on how far north the warm sector gets. f096.gif I've noticed this with the DGEX as well; it's usually good with determining the maximum warmth potential, definitely better than the GFS 2m temps, but can get the day wrong or sometimes exaggerate how far the warmth spreads into the Northeast. It wouldn't surprise me seeing 70 degrees make it to DC with mid 60s in Philly, although the NYC area is more borderline for the weekend; I'm currently thinking at least mid 50s for NYC, but there's still room for adjustments. The ECM also indicates Monday could be the warmest day if the cold front is slow enough. Even if daytime temps aren't as warm, overnight lows should definitely play a role in ensuring temperatures are significantly warmer than average. Temperatures on Sunday night ahead of the cold front look to struggle dropping below the upper 40s-50 degrees - although Sunday night likely won't have much impact as minimum temps are counted for 12am-12am intervals, not overnight minimums, Saturday night should have lows in the 40s as well (warmer than the average highs), and assuming the cold front moves through on Monday, the lowest temps won't be until Tuesday morning. While it's going to be colder for the 2nd half of the month, it's going to be extremely difficult to reverse these positive departures by the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z GFS has us with clearing skies tomorrow, which could help us warm. If the sea breeze doesn't become too much of a factor, we might have mid and even some upper 50's tomorrow. Best chance for everyone to see 60's is Monday. Cloud cover percent here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013011218 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 18z GFS has us with clearing skies tomorrow, which could help us warm. If the sea breeze doesn't become too much of a factor, we might have mid and even some upper 50's tomorrow. Best chance for everyone to see 60's is Monday. Cloud cover percent here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/archive.shtml?text=KISP&run=2013011218 I think the idea of record warmth is going to bust however with onshore flow dominant until Monday and then the polar front arriving late Monday into Tuesday. There's just too short a window for warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I think the idea of record warmth is going to bust however with onshore flow dominant until Monday and then the polar front arriving late Monday into Tuesday. There's just too short a window for warming. I agree record warmth won't happen. I never said it will. On shore flow is weak, winds only 5 to 10mph, from past experience, that won't lower our temps too much, at most by a degree or two. Most of the global models agree on the timing of arrival for the polar front ( around noon on Monday). Without the bulk of cold air arriving until Tuesday, I think we might have a chance to see 60's on Monday. 12z ECMWF has low 60's for us on Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I agree record warmth won't happen. I never said it will. On shore flow is weak, winds only 5 to 10mph, from past experience, that won't lower our temps too much, at most by a degree or two. Most of the global models agree on the timing of arrival for the polar front ( around noon on Monday). Without the bulk of cold air arriving until Tuesday, I think we might have a chance to see 60's on Monday. 12z ECMWF has low 60's for us on Monday afternoon. I can see the marine layer trying to poke into Westchester on that map...looks more like mid 50s here in the northern suburbs rather than 60s. Also, the 18z GFS shows light precipitation almost all day Monday, and 850s are only 3C at 18z which is around peak heating in mid-winter. The front has been speeding up, which means that the warm 850s no longer coincide with the best time for solar heating. I'm thinking tomorrow is upper 40s and then maybe low 50s on Monday morning with the temperature dropping by late afternoon. Warm nights will give us significant positive departures, but not as much as once thought. High temperatures will certainly be a disappointment for those wanting extreme warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 JFK has to potential tomorrow to approach or break their record high should we get a few breaks of sun just as the offshore flow begins with the FROPA. Too many clouds would keep the potential to rank 2 or 3 for the day. Top three warmest temps at JFK for January 14: 1/14 60 in 1950 58 in 1992 56 in 2005+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Many of us aren't going get above 50 today. A pesky little low is still sitting offshore, causing the flow to be more SSE and keep more cloudcover: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Many of us aren't going get above 50 today. A pesky little low is still sitting offshore, causing the flow to be more SSE and keep more cloudcover: The models were screaming for this a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 00z NMM and ARW both agree on warming after FROPA. Both models have me in the 60's at least an hour for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Another bust today...forecast high from NWS was 51F but I'm sitting at 45F with overcast skies. Not that much of a torch really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Another bust today...forecast high from NWS was 51F but I'm sitting at 45F with overcast skies. Not that much of a torch really... Central NJ is getting some clearing and they are already in the mid 50's. Even the slightest clearing will raise temps dramatically. Sun trying to break through here on the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Another bust today...forecast high from NWS was 51F but I'm sitting at 45F with overcast skies. Not that much of a torch really... Agreed. Still haven't gone higher than the 40's this week, not once and IMBY it was low-mid 40's at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Park is nearing 50 right now. This might not have been a massive torch, but the abnormally warm overnight mins continue. We haven't been below 32F since 4am on Jan 4th. By my count that is 226 hours, or nearly 9.5 days. That's pretty ridiculous for the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The warmth is also having some effects on nearby SSTs. The buoy at the entrance to NY Harbor is reporting a water temp of 46F at this hour. This is up from a low of 43F a few days ago (Jan 5th). While this is still lower than the 48-49F that was being reported this time last year, it is much higher than the 40F that was reported on this day in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Park is nearing 50 right now. This might not have been a massive torch, but the abnormally warm overnight mins continue. We haven't been below 32F since 4am on Jan 4th. By my count that is 226 hours, or nearly 9.5 days. That's pretty ridiculous for the heart of winter. +5.2 on the month so far isn't too shabby mostly as the result of the mild mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 +5 on the month so far isn't too shabby mostly as the result of the mild mins. These mins at DCA, PHL, and NYC/LGA/EWR are remarkable. So far for Dec and Jan, the lowest temp recorded has been: NYC: 22F LGA: 23F EWR: 24F PHL: 25F DCA: 27F Now some other cities in the SE: RIC: 22F ORF (Norfolk): 25F CLT: 21F JAX: 27F TLH (Tallahassee): 26F BNA (Nashville): 21F BHM: 26F RDU: 25F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 12z NAM had Rochester maxing out at around 45°F today. That completely busted, they are sitting at 68°F right now. Wonder if something similar, to a lesser extent, happens here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 These mins at DCA, PHL, and NYC/LGA/EWR are remarkable. So far for Dec and Jan, the lowest temp recorded has been: NYC: 22F LGA: 23F EWR: 24F PHL: 25F DCA: 27F Now some other cities in the SE: RIC: 22F ORF (Norfolk): 25F CLT: 21F JAX: 27F TLH (Tallahassee): 26F BNA (Nashville): 21F BHM: 26F RDU: 25F This will be the first time NYC failed to drop below 20 degrees by mid-January since 2001-2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 This will be the first time NYC failed to drop below 20 degrees by mid-January since 2001-2002. Amazing back to back record warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Amazing back to back record warmth The globe is warming at an incredible rate especially over the U.S. these past few years. Eventually temperature below 20 will be impossible to come by and then the average annual snowfall could rapidly drop off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The globe is warming at an incredible rate especially over the U.S. these past few years. Eventually temperature below 20 will be impossible to come by and then the average annual snowfall could rapidly drop off. 100% agree, when was the last time we've seen widespread record breaking cold in the tri-state area compared to widespread record warmth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 100% agree, when was the last time we've seen widespread record breaking cold in the tri-state area compared to widespread record warmth? I shouldn't say the globe has rapidly warmed these past few years, it's been more rising steadily but the U.S. has found itself to be in the hot spot of all this warming outside the much higher latitudes, which is just kind of terrible luck really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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