SACRUS Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Potential seems to be increasing for record challenging warmth into the area between fri (1/11) and mon (1/14). Some of the below could be broken, best shot the way it looks now is next weekend.... Record warmth for select locations NYC: 1/11: 63 (1975) 1/12: 64 (1890) 1/13: 68 (1932) 1/14: 70 (1932) EWR: 1/11: 66 (1975) 1/12: 61 (1975) 1/13: 70 (1932) 1/14: 70 (1932) TTN: 1/11: 65 (1975) 1/12: 62 (1913) 1/13: 69 (1932) 1/14: 73 (1932) LGA: 1/11: 62 (1975) 1/12: 60 *(1975) 1/13: 62 (1995) 1/14: 64 (1994) JFK: 1/11: 59 (1975) 1/12: 60 (1975) 1/13: 57 (1995) 1/14: 60 (1950) ISP: 1/11: 54 (2008) 1/12: 58 (1995) 1/13: 60 (1995) 1/14: 67 (1995) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I believe the warmest day will be next Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 50's generally, but some inland areas reaching the low 60's. I would be surprised to see anyone get into the mid 60's, but it is definitely a possibility. It will be interesting to see how this works out. The warmth before the cold and snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 the average January max is 57...we should at least get as warm as that... January max's... 1990....66 1991....55 1992....62 1993....64 1994....55 1995....64 1996....56 1997....62 1998....65 1999....60 2000....64 2001....54 2002....69 2003....50 2004....58 2005....66 2006....64 2007....72 2008....64 2009....47 2010....57 2011....53 2012....62 long term-ave......57 ...record..72 record..41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I think this is a good setup for a warm front to stay near the area or just south of it with backdoor-front like conditions over most of Long Island and New England. If the warm sector works north into our area this time of year, more often than not it is directly ahead of the front and tends to be very narrow...working into Eastern PA and New Jersey before cutting off near NYC. You can see some of the models picking up on this, especially the CMC which has relatively cool h85 temperatures despite the big mid level ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The 6z GFS and 0z ECMWF have 850mb temps around +14C, with a SSW flow, right ahead of the cold front next Sunday/Monday. If that's correct, it would support highs in the lower 70s for the inland spots with enough sunshine. But both models leave alot of low-level moisture behind, in the warm sector. So cloudcover and scattered showers will likely be around keeping highs 5-10 degrees lower, than what 850mb temps could support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I would ove to see this warm up end with a vintage arctic front ala Xmas Eve 1980. It's been quite some time since we've seen an arctic blast that dropped temps 30-40 degrees in 12 hrs. Obviuosly this is more common in the Upper Midwest and Plains but it has occured here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I remember that one..drove down to the ocean christmas day and the steam coming off the water was incredible. One day in Dec/Jan I don't remember the high for the day was 6* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I hope we see major record warmth then, I'll take 70s. If we can't get cold and snow, let's go for record warm temperatures in the 70s for mid January. That'll probably start being the norm as years go by rather than the exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The 06z DGEX has widespread upper 50's and low 60's over the area for Saturday and Sunday. Sunday slightly warmer than Saturday. Will feel like Spring out there. Keeps most of the precip to our West, but it is the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I hope we see major record warmth then, I'll take 70s. If we can't get cold and snow, let's go for record warm temperatures in the 70s for mid January. That'll probably start being the norm as years go by rather than the exception.Back in the 90's I remember hearing and reading about the norm would be snowless winters and how snow would be a thing of the past ... LmaoHey, don't mention winter warmth being normal to the Chinese or Europe during the last couple of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 This thread makes me sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I think this is a good setup for a warm front to stay near the area or just south of it with backdoor-front like conditions over most of Long Island and New England. If the warm sector works north into our area this time of year, more often than not it is directly ahead of the front and tends to be very narrow...working into Eastern PA and New Jersey before cutting off near NYC. You can see some of the models picking up on this, especially the CMC which has relatively cool h85 temperatures despite the big mid level ridge. A good illustration of this on this mornings DGEX run. You can see the narrow warm sector in NJ and the 40's and 50's east of NYC and into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Looking at the ECMWF, I am wondering if places in Virginia can approach 80 degrees by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Looks like we have a shot at 70 on Sunday per euro. Record highs would be a lock, if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Looks like we have a shot at 70 on Sunday per euro. Record highs would be a lock, if correct Euro has NYC barely hitting 50 degrees on Sunday. The front stalls very near us and it keeps us kind of grey and drizzly. It's what earthlight pointed out could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The warm push is always underestimated so I'm betting we are much warmer than what the Euro might show. Widespread 60s look good for a huge chunk of the area with some low 70s possible. Let's go all the way with this torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The warm push is always underestimated so I'm betting we are much warmer than what the Euro might show. Widespread 60s look good for a huge chunk of the area with some low 70s possible. Let's go all the way with this torch. Doubt it gets to 70. It might hit 60 one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Doubt it gets to 70. It might hit 60 one day. Well these past few days have been several degrees warmer than forecast. A few days ago, it was supposed to be in the upper 30s today, but instead it's in the mid 40s. Even during the so called cold spell a few days ago temperatures were still several degrees above the forecast. I really think we are going to be much warmer than people think. Pending a lot of cloud cover, I really think many locations will hit 70+ this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I'd love to see 70's here. Don't think we'll see it. What the models are seeing with the air mass that was supposed to be a "cold spell" is a different air mass than what we will see this weekend. I think some of the models, possibly the Euro, are over estimating this warmth. Even here on LI, SW winds off the ocean will lower our temps by 1 or 2 degrees than inland spots. Also considering that this will also be a very humid air mass, I expect a lot of cloud cover. 12z GFS show 90-100% cloud cover for the area Sunday through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Doubt it gets to 70. It might hit 60 one day. Maybe not in NYC/LI but I've seen this types of setups before and it's a good chance places from EWR & southwest will push the 70 degree mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The warm push is always underestimated so I'm betting we are much warmer than what the Euro might show. Widespread 60s look good for a huge chunk of the area with some low 70s possible. Let's go all the way with this torch. It will be difficult given the set up. The Euro doesn't have NYC hitting 50 on the 2m temp maps. The low level flow is going to probably bring in marine air for a while, as the warm sector remains to our south and west. The Euro and Canadian both have a shortwave coming over the top of the ridge, and then sliding south and east over Long Island. Check out the dip in the h85 temperatures over NYC, Long Island, and New England despite the big ridge aloft. This would be a classic back door cold front signal in the spring or summer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 It will be difficult given the set up. The Euro doesn't have NYC hitting 50 on the 2m temp maps. The low level flow is going to probably bring in marine air for a while, as the warm sector remains to our south and west. The Euro and Canadian both have a shortwave coming over the top of the ridge, and then sliding south and east over Long Island. Check out the dip in the h85 temperatures over NYC, Long Island, and New England despite the big ridge aloft. This would be a classic back door cold front signal in the spring or summer time. Isn't this one of those solutions where those of us in NW NJ could be basking in the sun and upper 60's while it's cold and damp and in the 40's from the city on eastward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Isn't this one of those solutions where those of us in NW NJ could be basking in the sun and upper 60's while it's cold and damp and in the 40's from the city on eastward? 50 degree isotherm is all the way out to Cape Cod, don't know where you're seeing 40's. If we are in the 50's, most of the area would be too because of extensive cloud cover. 50's....not 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 50 degree isotherm is all the way out to Cape Cod, don't know where you're seeing 40's. If we are in the 50's, most of the area would be too because of extensive cloud cover. 50's....not 40's Well that map indicates 60's for NJ which is nice. Someone had posted that the Euro 2M temps didn't get to 50's for the city so I based my comment from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well that map indicates 60's for NJ which is nice. Someone had posted that the Euro 2M temps didn't get to 50's for the city so I based my comment from that It doesn't on Sunday. Actual text and skew-t soundings have 48-50 degrees for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Love to see a storm ride that ridge talk about helter skelter sometimes their memorable it's all good the pattern is evolving just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Forecasted highs from 12z euro for NYC: Wed: 48 Thurs: 46 Fri: 43 Sat: 51 Sun: 55 Mon: 50 Tue: 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Forecasted highs from 12z euro for NYC: Wed: 48 Thurs: 46 Fri: 43 Sat: 51 Sun: 55 Mon: 50 Tue: 52 Those are well above average but nothing record breaking, I still think a lot of us will be in the 60s this weekend, though 70F might be pushing it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 12Z data is trending toward an idea of keeping the > +10c 850's south of the Mason Dixon line, which would generally save the Northeast from major torching. Hopefully we can see this continue. Right now it looks like 50-55F will be the maximum temperatures for NYC northeastward. I could see PHL making 60s and DCA approaching 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Those are well above average but nothing record breaking, I still think a lot of us will be in the 60s this weekend, though 70F might be pushing it right now. It's the scope though. Starting this past Sunday to January 16, I'm calculating nearly +100 for NYC in total departure. That's pretty incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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