Israel's Winter Weather

[Ridingtime]

Hey guys,

 

Every winter that I have been living here in Jerusalem, Israel, I usually like to get a discussion going about upcoming potential snow systems that are headed towards the area. Israel is a host to a very unique climate in that there is a very beachy tropical climate to along the west coast, desert dry climate in the south, and mountainous rainy, and sometimes snowy climate in the middle going up to the north.

 

I usually like to focus on Jerusalem winter weather cause, well, that is where I live, but also because snowy weather here can paint a breathtakingly beautiful landscape since the city is largely made up of golden stoned buildings across a hilly landscape. Snow is a big deal for all of the residents here too, since it shuts down the city, and most people love seeing the white stuff since it is a rarity.

 

Sure enough, this Wednesday and possibly Thursday, there is a decent chance for snow. A large system is coming through from the Mediterranean spurred by a pattern change that is bringing colder air from Eastern Europe surging southward down into Israel.

 

I would appreciate some more expert analysis on this whole event. Normally, I am able to understand the systems here with the help of the NOAA GFS maps which are usually more detailed and easier to read for me than other GFS map sources. However, the NOAA site seems to have experienced a major hardware failure (anyone else here talking about that?) and I haven't found some comparable maps yet. Can anyone point me to something similar to what was on the NOAA site?

 

Looking forward to getting some discussion going and thanks in advance for your input!

 

 

[yl715]

I've been using the wundermap link.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

Looks like a wonderful event for the kinneret.

[wxmx]

Boundary layer looks a bit too warm, maybe in the higher terrain it can accumulate some.

[Ridingtime]

Boundary layer looks a bit too warm, maybe in the higher terrain it can accumulate some.

 

Jerusalem is 800 meters above sea level and often warm boundary level issues don't apply. Some reports here are already calling for 10 cm of snow (about 4 inches) Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

[blizzardof96]

Jerusalem is 800 meters above sea level and often warm boundary level issues don't apply. Some reports here are already calling for 10 cm of snow (about 4 inches) Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

 

Looks like a really interesting situation could be evolving for Jerusalem mid week. The GFS model is much warmer and keeps snowfall accumulations relatively low with a trace to a few cm possible. Most of the cold air gets ushered in after the precipitation on this model with marginal boundary layer temps and very warm 925mb temps. Jerusalem and areas with some elevation could pick up a few cm if the GFS solution pans out. The european which is the best performing model shows a much more interesting solution. It has a much colder solution with favourable boundary layer temps in a line from jerusalem to ashdod on north. The event basically continues from 1am wednesday to 8pm wednesday with all snow for jerusalem and much more moisture then the GFS is showing. The 12z european has a 15-30cm snowstorm for jerusalem. Enjoy it if this pans out!

[Ridingtime]

Looks like a really interesting situation could be evolving for Jerusalem mid week. The GFS model is much warmer and keeps snowfall accumulations relatively low with a trace to a few cm possible. Most of the cold air gets ushered in after the precipitation on this model with marginal boundary layer temps and very warm 925mb temps. Jerusalem and areas with some elevation could pick up a few cm if the GFS solution pans out. The european which is the best performing model shows a much more interesting solution. It has a much colder solution with favourable boundary layer temps in a line from jerusalem to ashdod on north. The event basically continues from 1am wednesday to 8pm wednesday with all snow for jerusalem and much more moisture then the GFS is showing. The 12z european has a 15-30cm snowstorm for jerusalem. Enjoy it if this pans out!

 

Awesome, thanks for that. The Euro is usually better for any of the weather situations here, so this sounds very encouraging. I hope you don't mind keeping me updated as we lead up to the event since I am pretty unskilled at reading the Euro maps. 

 

If it pans out with lots of snow, expect to see a lot of great pics from the storm in this thread

[blizzardof96]

Awesome, thanks for that. The Euro is usually better for any of the weather situations here, so this sounds very encouraging. I hope you don't mind keeping me updated as we lead up to the event since I am pretty unskilled at reading the Euro maps. 

 

If it pans out with lots of snow, expect to see a lot of great pics from the storm in this thread

 

No problem, ill try to keep you up to date as much as possible.

[wxmx]

Jerusalem is 800 meters above sea level and often warm boundary level issues don't apply. Some reports here are already calling for 10 cm of snow (about 4 inches) Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

 

 As long as there's ground, boundary level issues might always be there. I should know, the city I live in is even topographically more extreme, ranging from 450m to >900m. Euro isn't that colder, above freezing all time, same with the GFS...there might be some snow mixing in, but little to no accumulations, except maybe in high ground.

[Sock Puppet]

Whatever happens you better be out there shooting pics all day

[Ridingtime]

 As long as there's ground, boundary level issues might always be there. I should know, the city I live in is even topographically more extreme, ranging from 450m to >900m. Euro isn't that colder, above freezing all time, same with the GFS...there might be some snow mixing in, but little to no accumulations, except maybe in high ground.

 

I wish I could comment better on what I meant. I was referring to things that I have read in general about Jerusalem's elevation and how usually the models have a hard time predicting the ground temps here. It is a complicated terrain because you go from a coastal warm environment along the west to a higher elevated terrain just 45 minutes eastward. I read that the models have a hard time handling that quick difference. 

 

Regardless, forecasting stations here are still predicting accumulating snow on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Here is a good site that a lot of people use here that is now predicting 5-10 cm for Jerusalem (2-4 inches), which I'll take any day: http://www.02ws.com/station.php?lang=0

[wxmx]

I wish I could comment better on what I meant. I was referring to things that I have read in general about Jerusalem's elevation and how usually the models have a hard time predicting the ground temps here. It is a complicated terrain because you go from a coastal warm environment along the west to a higher elevated terrain just 45 minutes eastward. I read that the models have a hard time handling that quick difference. 

 

Regardless, forecasting stations here are still predicting accumulating snow on Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Here is a good site that a lot of people use here that is now predicting 5-10 cm for Jerusalem (2-4 inches), which I'll take any day: http://www.02ws.com/station.php?lang=0

 

Accumulating on high ground to the east... ...That's the possibility I have been talking all the time. No more Debbie Downers from me, hopefully you enjoy!!

[Ridingtime]

Accumulating on high ground to the east... ...That's the possibility I have been talking all the time. No more Debbie Downers from me, hopefully you enjoy!!

 

Haha, thanks. And no worries about the debbie downers, its good to be realistic sometimes too, and I appreciate knowing what the models are saying even if they have a hard time with this area.

[Ridingtime]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/163974#.UOvxbIletjk

 

Here is a link that describes the magnitude of this storm. It's rare for Israel to get a storm like this, and the chances for snow are only increasing it appears. 5 inches are being predicted for Jerusalem, and snow is being predicted for lower elevation regions as well. I am getting pretty pumped and will keep you guys posted.

[wxmx]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/163974#.UOvxbIletjk

 

Here is a link that describes the magnitude of this storm. It's rare for Israel to get a storm like this, and the chances for snow are only increasing it appears. 5 inches are being predicted for Jerusalem, and snow is being predicted for lower elevation regions as well. I am getting pretty pumped and will keep you guys posted.

 

I'd still be cautious about snowfall perspectives...5" look way high with such marginal near surface forecasted temperatures, but hopefully the dynamics of the storm can alleviate this issue some and bring some all snow during heavier bands.

[Ridingtime]

I'd still be cautious about snowfall perspectives...5" look way high with such marginal near surface forecasted temperatures, but hopefully the dynamics of the storm can alleviate this issue some and bring some all snow during heavier bands.

 

Thanks. Being cautious and hopeful. Can you let me know what model you are looking at and what they are saying?

[OHweather]

What's concerning is that the 850mb temps aren't progged to get cooler than -2 to -4C on the GFS or Euro, which is marginal even at 800m asl, especially when dealing with a situation where the heat and moisture coming of the sea are critical to the precipitation falling. If things were a little cooler or if you were a little higher up I'd be more optimistic, but I agree with wxmx, I'd probably be pretty conservative on snowfall amounts in the city.

[wxmx]

Thanks. Being cautious and hopeful. Can you let me know what model you are looking at and what they are saying?

 

GFS and Euro

 

You can look at the GFS raw values here. GFS is usually a tad warm, so I wouldnt be suprised that temps get a bit colder than what's progged (3C or so). I use wundermap for the Euro.

 

My guess is that most of the event will be rain, with mix during the coldest stretch...but places above 800-900m can definitely get some small accumulations

[Ridingtime]

GFS and Euro

 

You can look at the GFS raw values here. GFS is usually a tad warm, so I wouldnt be suprised that temps get a bit colder than what's progged (3C or so). I use wundermap for the Euro.

 

My guess is that most of the event will be rain, with mix during the coldest stretch...but places above 800-900m can definitely get some small accumulations

 

So here is why I remain optimistic. Check out this post from Jconsor, who is a met in Jerusalem that posts every so often on these forums, and was discussing an upcoming storm last winter.

 

 

 

The topography of central Israel is too complex for operational models to handle surface temps well. The ECMWF is better than the GFS, however, due to its superior resolution.

 

Also, note that because Jerusalem's elevation is around 800 m, it is normally around the 925 mb level in winter storms, so temperatures below that level are not relevant. In this particular storm, because pressures will be low initially, Jerusalem will be around the 910-915 mb level for the first half of the storm and close to 900 mb for the second half.

 

Also, the GFS model has such a coarse resolution that it "thinks" Jerusalem is at a much lower elevation than it is. The elevation increases from sea level to over 800 m in about 35 miles from the coast to the central mountains of Israel.

 

Having researched past winter storms in Israel and spoken to those who are experts, the most important factors are the 850, 700 and 500 mb temps. Generally in order to get accumulating snow:

 

850 mb temps: below -1C, and ideally below -2C

700 mb temps: below -10C

500 mb temps: below -25C

 

Current GFS forecasts indicate 850 mb temps around -1.5C for Sat and early Sun, 700 mb temps around -11.5 to -12C the entire storm, and 500 mb temps of -24 to -25C for Sat, but rising to around -21 to -22C by Sun morning. The 500 mb temps are borderline, but the other indicators are good for snowfall.

 

The other factor to consider is that the GFS doesn't have the sounding completely saturated at low levels during the time when temps are cold enough for possible snow - Sat into early Sun. It has 900 mb RH around 75 to 85% during that time, implying that temps could drop significantly via evaporational cooling if heavier precip occurs.

 

 

So seeing that, and looking at the link that you posted of the GFS, I'd say that snow is looking pretty good. But please correct me if I am missing something here.

[wxmx]

It's fine, it can happen, but keep expectations a bit low...5" seems unrealistic, the stronger dynamics are probably occurring now, with lighter precipitation for tonight. My best guess for snow is very early in the morning (your morning) tomorrow.

[Chaser25973]

I'm rooting for an all out snowstorm!

[Ridingtime]

I'd say so far so good.

 

It's 10:30 here and the main stuff according to most of the reports here in Jerusalem is supposed to start after midday. But already, we are experiencing several really nice bursts of lots of sleet. Grass is even starting to get coated white with it all. And it really is coming down heavily.

 

So apparently, the temps are getting colder. Schools here are also closing at noon. The whole city is getting ready for something significant. This all still leads me to believe that 5-15 cm of accumulations later on is feasible. 

 

I'll keep ya'll posted

[phlwx]

The Golan looks like it's going to get popped with upwards of a foot of snow...nice event coming in.  Congrats on whatever you get ridingtime.

[Ridingtime]

The Golan looks like it's going to get popped with upwards of a foot of snow...nice event coming in.  Congrats on whatever you get ridingtime.

 

Yup, a part of me really wants to head north to check out the Golan. But if it pans out well here in Jerusalem, I don't think anything can beat seeing this city covered in snow. Gold and white make a great combination

[Ridingtime]

Well, it appears the temps are in the right place, but now the struggle is getting consistent precipitation. It basically has been coming in waves the past couple of hours, and when it comes, it falls as big sleet pellets mixed with snow. Then it clears up, and even the sun comes out, only to get cloudy again, followed by more of this big sleet stuff.

 

Reports are still saying that in the next couple of hours and then all through the night, snow will be falling heavily. So I remain hopeful

[Ed Lizard]

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/164017#.UO1lszbnaM8

 

[donsutherland1]

Well, it appears the temps are in the right place, but now the struggle is getting consistent precipitation. It basically has been coming in waves the past couple of hours, and when it comes, it falls as big sleet pellets mixed with snow. Then it clears up, and even the sun comes out, only to get cloudy again, followed by more of this big sleet stuff.

 

Reports are still saying that in the next couple of hours and then all through the night, snow will be falling heavily. So I remain hopeful

 

Good luck, Ridingtime. Hopefully, there will be sustained moderate-to-heavy precipitation. If so, that should cool the column and there should be an accumulating snow.

[Sock Puppet]

Seeing reports of snow as well as pics of coating all over. Hopefully you get nice accumulation

[Ridingtime]

So far its still been very off and on, and maybe just now it's starting to pick up more. When precip finally does fall, it's usually a big mix of very large ice pellets and snow. Rain does not appear to be falling any more, which indicates to me that temps are doing well. We just need something more consistent now. When that finally happens, I believe, like Don said, it will cool the column so that it gets even colder for accumulations. I'll probably be up most of the night tracking this so stay tuned

[OHweather]

So far its still been very off and on, and maybe just now it's starting to pick up more. When precip finally does fall, it's usually a big mix of very large ice pellets and snow. Rain does not appear to be falling any more, which indicates to me that temps are doing well. We just need something more consistent now. When that finally happens, I believe, like Don said, it will cool the column so that it gets even colder for accumulations. I'll probably be up most of the night tracking this so stay tuned

 

Good luck!

 

Yeah, it looks like temperatures came in a couple degrees cooler than modeling even 24 hours ago, with 850mb temps around -2 to -3C now with the Euro showing things dipping to -4C over the next several hours with weather stations reporting surface temps hovering around 1-2C. Based on satellite the more consistent precip has been occurring to your north from Cyprus into Lebanon with a large area of colder cloud tops in that area...it appears as though this is associated with some low-mid level convergence. The Euro shows this convergence shifting southward over the next few hours so we'll see if that can get a period of more consistent precip into Israel.

 

The GFS/Euro both show high low to mid level RH's persisting until about 12z Thursday which I believe is through much of Thursday local time with a NWrly flow, so good moisture should continue to be picked up off of the sea and generate precip for another 18-24 hours for you there.

 

If I was as up on topographical enhancements off the Mediterranean as I was off the Great Lakes I'd be able to give a more specific estimate, but based on what you've reported so far and another 18-24 hours of continued precip that falls frozen when it comes down at a moderate clip, it seems like a few cm's is a good guess with up to 10cm possible if you can sit under a more enhanced band of precip for a few hours, although that appears to be the less likely scenario.

[Ridingtime]

Good luck!

 

Yeah, it looks like temperatures came in a couple degrees cooler than modeling even 24 hours ago, with 850mb temps around -2 to -3C now with the Euro showing things dipping to -4C over the next several hours with weather stations reporting surface temps hovering around 1-2C. Based on satellite the more consistent precip has been occurring to your north from Cyprus into Lebanon with a large area of colder cloud tops in that area...it appears as though this is associated with some low-mid level convergence. The Euro shows this convergence shifting southward over the next few hours so we'll see if that can get a period of more consistent precip into Israel.

 

The GFS/Euro both show high low to mid level RH's persisting until about 12z Thursday which I believe is through much of Thursday local time with a NWrly flow, so good moisture should continue to be picked up off of the sea and generate precip for another 18-24 hours for you there.

 

If I was as up on topographical enhancements off the Mediterranean as I was off the Great Lakes I'd be able to give a more specific estimate, but based on what you've reported so far and another 18-24 hours of continued precip that falls frozen when it comes down at a moderate clip, it seems like a few cm's is a good guess with up to 10cm possible if you can sit under a more enhanced band of precip for a few hours, although that appears to be the less likely scenario.

 

Thanks so much for this very informative post. I especially liked hearing that modeling is showing some more stuff throughout the day tomorrow.