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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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I feel pretty good about how all this shakes out. Barring some signal fooking this all up it should turn pretty wintry down the road. I still don't know how I feel about next week's transition period but minimally that period won't be boring. And yes whether it's 45F or 55F it's mild and boring. Call it muted, call it torch, call it a thaw...whatever

 

I'm impressed with how things look, but of course the whole "what will eff this up" thought is still firmly on my mind. However as modeled....that's a pretty good look right now.

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And yes whether it's 45F or 55F it's mild and boring. Call it muted, call it torch, call it a thaw...whatever

Both sides will claim victory when all is said and done.

Yeah. I just don't understand why there has to be sides! Weenies. Heavy heavy weenies. Lol.

Always feel like I have to write everything verrrry carefully so as to make sure it isnt slammed back at me. Never be too specific or you'll just be wrong.

I miss the old days around here.

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Yeah. I just don't understand why there has to be sides! Weenies. Heavy heavy weenies. Lol. Always feel like I have to write everything verrrry carefully so as to make sure it isnt slammed back at me. Never be too specific or you'll just be wrong. I miss the old days around here.

 

It is WW3 in here when we try to moderate though.

 

But I digress...

 

I would take the torch 6 years ago today in a heartbeat...06-07 had a nice finish in the interior.

 

Could you imagine the posts today if this happened again in January?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kbdl/2007/1/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

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The 0Z GFS had about six cutters didn't it?  LOL  Everyone south of Quebec City was losing their snow pack.

 

Yeah I mean it's possible next week could have one, if the euro is incorrect. It's one of those patterns where as the trough slowly migrates east, any s/w near the Gulf will blow up a low as it moves due north. That's what the GFS op did, but the op run is in la-la land. The ensembles all weren't as bullish with those lows and besides..many of those would probably be SWFE if they materialized.

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I think one reason the ECM dumped the trough into the east so quickly was that it cut off all the energy way out near CA. If that is model error...it could call into question the solution further east.

Yeah I mean it's possible next week could have one, if the euro is incorrect. It's one of those patterns where as the trough slowly migrates east, any s/w near the Gulf will blow up a low as it moves due north. That's what the GFS op did, but the op run is in la-la land. The ensembles all weren't as bullish with those lows and besides..many of those would probably be SWFE if they materialized.

 

 

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It is WW3 in here when we try to moderate though.

 

But I digress...

 

I would take the torch 6 years ago today in a heartbeat...06-07 had a nice finish in the interior.

 

Could you imagine the posts today if this happened again in January?

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kbdl/2007/1/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

That winter was epic for the second half starting MLK weekend...

But yeah, can you imagine what some would be saying if we were looking at 72/52 with sunshine at BDL on January 6 like in 2007?

That's absurd... dews in the low 50s with temps in the low 70s and an overnight min of 49F. That's like a mid June day in early January.

Blizz would be swan diving into drained swimming pools.

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It is WW3 in here when we try to moderate though.

But I digress...

I would take the torch 6 years ago today in a heartbeat...06-07 had a nice finish in the interior.

Could you imagine the posts today if this happened again in January?

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kbdl/2007/1/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

Most of the weather debate now is over, there's a few posts discussing the great qvector post and 20 pages talking about whether or not a red tagger said it would be 50 or 51.5 for 2 days or 1.99 days.

It's the gotcha game and people still play back into it day in day out.

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I think one reason the ECM dumped the trough into the east so quickly was that it cut off all the energy way out near CA. If that is model error...it could call into question the solution further east.

 

Yeah good catch. It's possible, although the ensembles sort of have a baggy look to the pressure field..possibly due to some members agreeing with the op run.

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You're the ring-leader of the circus!

 

Maybe in the summer..but in winter I try to back away. I only try and temper mundane temp upswings with terms like Mild-up..because a warm up just sounds like it's a big deal or warm or something. It's nice to see respected mets like Ryan using the mild up term in other facets like his blogs or FB..so we know it is taking off

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Maybe in the summer..but in winter I try to back away. I only try and temper mundane temp upswings with terms like Mild-up..because a warm up just sounds like it's a big deal or warm or something. It's nice to see respected mets like Ryan using the mild up term in other facets like his blogs or FB..so we know it is taking off

 

Well we know your snow will not be in melt up mode.

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You're the ring-leader of the circus!

Maybe in the summer..but in winter I try to back away. I only try and temper mundane temp upswings with terms like Mild-up..because a warm up just sounds like it's a big deal or warm or something. It's nice to see respected mets like Ryan using the mild up term in other facets like his blogs or FB..so we know it is taking off

:lol:

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Maybe in the summer..but in winter I try to back away. I only try and temper mundane temp upswings with terms like Mild-up..because a warm up just sounds like it's a big deal or warm or something. It's nice to see respected mets like Ryan using the mild up term in other facets like his blogs or FB..so we know it is taking off

Well we know your snow will not be in melt up mode.

The girls will be sledding on grass, dirt and twigs.

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Sure we'll lose some snow but unless we have 12-24 hours with 50's dews we should be able to keep a few inches anyway

 

Well hopefully your base will hold. These next days will be mostly sun torched areas that melt the most...open fields, yards etc. It's the moist cutters that kill most of the snow.

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You choose to ignore all of the crap.  Temps crash all day type posts because thats allowed because it deals with cold......that was my beef, go back and read the page or two.  Hardly a temp crash and just another above normal day during the bitter first week of January.

 

The bias on this board is unbelievable at times.

 

By the way, congrats on the snow out east guys, nothing better than snow and no wind.

 

 

Don't play victim Joe, your posts were just as biased, if not more. You posted about early morning low departures yesterday when it was pretty obvious that the lows of the day were not going to be in the morning.So the departures in the morning were meaningless. 

 

 

I hardly think you'd be posting about mid-afternoon high temp departures of -2 if you knew we would torch by midnight from a cutter.

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17.0F/14    Tooorrcchhh!!!!   Still have not seen any ice fishing around here... plenty of time

 

Lots of snowmaking, though.  We went up New Year's Eve, then last night. They put so much new snow on a few trails, it was sick.

 

Did not see that last year.

 

?? , dont understand why, people have been ice fishing down here already

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The reality of it is we have had 2 snow events in 8 days, albeit for some of us not the blockbusters we love.  There's bog and small pond skating underway, the ski resorts are peak to peak in snow and we're going to have a week of mild temperatures.  It's a lot better than 2012.

 

If people stopped responding to the baiting it would end on all sides. 

 

 

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The reality of it is we have had 2 snow events in 8 days, albeit for some of us not the blockbusters we love.  There's bog and small pond skating underway, the ski resorts are peak to peak in snow and we're going to have a week of mild temperatures.  It's a lot better than 2012.

 

If people stopped responding to the baiting it would end on all sides. 

 

 

We have a winner!

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