HM Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Random thoughts: the polar vortex looks way too symmetrical and intense for me to get excited about something big, at least for the time being. Doesn't mean we don't see some good wintry wx for you guys (and who knows, maybe even me) but you aren't going to see a monster with a PV like what's being modeled. The flu is of course in the news and is correlated to water vapor anomalies. Post-holiday spike in cases makes sense but we could see a secondary peak coming up with this Arctic Air before slowly subsiding. Finally, if you are expecting an exact repeat of 94' you'll be disappointed. My mistake for not using a smiley to show exaggeration this morning. Some similarities? Sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Tue/Wed system is going to be a tough one to nail down until we are really close in (unless we see a big synoptic shift overall which seems unlikely) I think. The whole timing precip coming in vs cold air arrival is always a pain. Obviously we know The regions it favors overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 HM...we know. 1994 had a positive nao allowing overrunning systems into a beautiful and stable epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Random thoughts: the polar vortex looks way too symmetrical and intense for me to get excited about something big, at least for the time being. Doesn't mean we don't see some good wintry wx for you guys (and who knows, maybe even me) but you aren't going to see a monster with a PV like what's being modeled. The flu is of course in the news and is correlated to water vapor anomalies. Post-holiday spike in cases makes sense but we could see a secondary peak coming up with this Arctic Air before slowly subsiding. Finally, if you are expecting an exact repeat of 94' you'll be disappointed. My mistake for not using a smiley to show exaggeration this morning. Some similarities? Sure... i don't think it's a random at all... in fact, I tried to discuss that it's not a very good pattern for widespread snow given to the fact that the gradient at mid levels is too intense, such that S/W have 0 mechanics in the flow. i was ...mildly attacked. i still say the better scenario for us is when this flexing SPV from Jupiter relaxes some; I'm angling for a bigger event between the 20th and 25th of the month. The AO's connection with the antecedent stratosphere/troposphere events should hemispheric scaled be suppressing the westerlies, and that relaxes the flow some in the 60th parallel where we'll find our blocking nodes. That appears fortuitously timed with a PNA rise. now watch us get clobbered on the 17th... ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Hoping we see more clarity beginning with tonights 0z run. Nice day out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yea my amateur eyes agree with Tip & HM, I live in Philadelphia so my chances of anything wintry before the 20th is much less than you guys. However, I do feel as the PV relaxes maybe the entire EC could pull something off in the 24-28th range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wish we could just FF to Mon nite/ Tuesday storm @ryanhanrahan: Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible. http://t.co/lvYUsPBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ot but I just can't get over the snowfall totals in se mass during 04 winter..well over 100 inches for se mass into western c cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Random thoughts: the polar vortex looks way too symmetrical and intense for me to get excited about something big, at least for the time being. Doesn't mean we don't see some good wintry wx for you guys (and who knows, maybe even me) but you aren't going to see a monster with a PV like what's being modeled. The flu is of course in the news and is correlated to water vapor anomalies. Post-holiday spike in cases makes sense but we could see a secondary peak coming up with this Arctic Air before slowly subsiding. Finally, if you are expecting an exact repeat of 94' you'll be disappointed. My mistake for not using a smiley to show exaggeration this morning. Some similarities? Sure... Most striking is the Fujiwara type effect as the second split off PV (if you will) gets slung down as an elongated PV into the Midwest. That 216-300 time frame seems best for a phaser ripping up the East Coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ot but I just can't get over the snowfall totals in se mass during 04 winter..whenener I think about them. well over 100 inches for se mass into western c cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There will definitely be opportunities through the end of the month but I'm thinking something big or widespread may wait even longer (Feb 5-10). Then again, we can always get 2. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Other standouts that month - Ft. kent, 4 of their coldest 26, records back to 1945. Allagash village (only since 1986), 4 of the coldest 6. In Jan 1994, Allagash, Ft.Kent, Clayton, perhaps CAR, set the coldest non-MWN monthly mean temps I've seen for anywhere in New England. !st CT Lake may have been colder than CAR, but I don't think Mt. Mansfield was. Funny, it wasn't that memorable for southern/coastal Maine. I'm sure we had a couple single-digit highs, but unless I'm blanking on it the PWM area didn't approach any records. It's a big state with a wide range of terrain and climo.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ot but I just can't get over the snowfall totals in se mass during 04 winter..whenener I think about them. well over 100 inches for se mass into western c cod. It was awesome. By the time late feb came around it felt like 10" snows were weekly events and just "meh" storms. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wish we could just FF to Mon nite/ Tuesday storm @ryanhanrahan: Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible. http://t.co/lvYUsPBs Ha! how does one get from "Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible" to "storm" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Most striking is the Fujiwara type effect as the second split off PV (if you will) gets slung down as an elongated PV into the Midwest. That 216-300 time frame seems best for a phaser ripping up the East Coast What you want is all of the low heights / deep cold to move into the eastern dipole with some sort of appendage back west. A very consolidated, deep, circular PV with a massive gradient is actually not the best pattern for a monster. It will crush the southern stream and not allow the s/w moving along to amplify. You need to have the waves underneath the Arctic Heights amplify and go negative and allow the deep, cold heights build into it. But this is still a very active pattern with clippers etc. I'm just looking for monster potential and I don't see it yet on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wish we could just FF to Mon nite/ Tuesday storm @ryanhanrahan: Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible. http://t.co/lvYUsPBs Ha! how does one get from "Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible" to "storm" ? Don't think about it...just makes your brain hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Time for new thread! Perhaps ryan starts it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ha! how does one get from "Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible" to "storm" ? KURO extreme enhancemet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 We don't want the bitter cold if we want snow. Caprice? caprice? I'll hope for the best for next week--but I am far from ready to get too excited. 31.8/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol mike nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ot but I just can't get over the snowfall totals in se mass during 04 winter..whenener I think about them. well over 100 inches for se mass into western c cod. Yep. Was still in Brockton at the time. Absolutely loved that winter. Was glad that I got to experience it as a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 What you want is all of the low heights / deep cold to move into the eastern dipole with some sort of appendage back west. A very consolidated, deep, circular PV with a massive gradient is actually not the best pattern for a monster. It will crush the southern stream and not allow the s/w moving along to amplify. You need to have the waves underneath the Arctic Heights amplify and go negative and allow the deep, cold heights build into it. But this is still a very active pattern with clippers etc. I'm just looking for monster potential and I don't see it yet on the modeling. 1978, 2005, many others, Clippers can nuke for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I absolutely love clippers, 1-3 2-4 inches of fluff the occasional 3-6.........seems like we have not had many over the last 5 years. Love em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 1978, 2005, many others, Clippers can nuke for us. Jan. '04 had that sweet clipper with like 18 or 20:1 ratios down here. I'm not sure if it made it up to BOS though. January 28th was the exact date I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Jan. '04 had that sweet clipper with like 18 or 20:1 ratios down here. I'm not sure if it made it up to BOS though. January 28th was the exact date I believe. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/01282004.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Ha! how does one get from "Some wintry weather on Tuesday is possible" to "storm" ? At least modest amounts of snow, then ice is a storm. Did mom make 1 or 2 grilled cheeses today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I hope its coming but man, its January 10th and I feel like every day is ground hogs day. Dec 29 seems like an eternity and Nov 7th feels like it was last winter. Just snow already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Most striking is the Fujiwara type effect as the second split off PV (if you will) gets slung down as an elongated PV into the Midwest. That 216-300 time frame seems best for a phaser ripping up the East Coast This happened in January 1966. The PV was 510DM though and the southern stream was much more amped up. Very unlikely, but anything possible 216 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 the euro ens mean is certainly better than the gfes. i don't like the compact vortex as others have mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Jan. '04 had that sweet clipper with like 18 or 20:1 ratios down here. I'm not sure if it made it up to BOS though. January 28th was the exact date I believe. jan 15th http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/15-Jan-04.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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