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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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I was looking at record lows for Caribou ME and I didn't realize how ridiculous 2009 was there. They have 6 of their 31 record low daily temps for January in 2009.

 

The potential cold shot lines up around the time of a lot of those record lows...and they are some of the toughest ones to beat in the month.

 

I was skiing at Sugarloaf with my son during that cold outbreak. The peak of the cold saw tempertures of -25F in Stratton , Maine and -32F at Sugarloaf's summit. Quite cold!!!

 

Timberline-1.jpg

Cold-1.jpg

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bout the only thing remotely interesting on my mind is this potential. snow just about gone here now. torched to 48f. saw 51-52 driving home from boston.

 

This, same here - making the best of it and playing golf this weekend

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Was hoping we could have temps dropping already by Mon morn. Sounds like we'll have temps crashing most of the day

 

Its probably going to be more of a slow ooze. Its not a sharp arctic front. Its a polar boundary with some adequate cold north of it as long as we get far enough into it.

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EC ens are pretty sweet for up here. A replenished snowpack and then the arctic hounds get unleashed. Next Saturday morning looks brutally cold with that airmass and high pressure centering over us. Still in lala land though.

While some of us are without power to your south from the ice. Hopefully folks have gennys and stocked up on firewood
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I think the reason for the difference between the op GFS and op Euro is that the op GFS is super sharp and south with the PV/trough diving out of the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes between 120-144 hours. That forces the SE ridge to amplify a bit with building heights ahead of it. The end result is that the initial boundary on Monday on the GFS gets hung up and we get less of a push of cold advection. The next wave is able to ride the boundary a bit farther west and winds up warmer and more amped.

 

The Euro, on the other hand, is flatter and slower with the PV coming out of Canada. Many of the GEFS members are as well. This allows the boundary on Monday to settle a bit to the south and allows the piece of energy coming up from the south on Tuesday to pass underneath us and it remains cold enough for mainly frozen.

 

If I had to guess I'd say the op GFS is being a bit bullish with the sub-480 tkns over Lake Superior at 144 hours lol. 

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While some of us are without power to your south from the ice. Hopefully folks have gennys and stocked up on firewood

 

Lol, stocking up on firewood and buying a generator for 0.25-0.40" of QPF...even if that was all ice, power outages would be merely scattered.

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Lol, stocking up on firewood and buying a generator for 0.25-0.40" of QPF...even if that was all ice, power outages would be merely scattered.

 

Precip amounts are of little consequence as poor soil conditions around here will cause week rooted tree's to come crashing down on power lines from just a little bit of ice accumulation.

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Yeah what a sick month that was in Maine. It was very cold across all of New England, but Maine definitely got the real brunt of it in terms of anomalies. They've had some obscene torches there in recent winters (2010 is the worst)...but that was a real doozy for cold mixed in there. CAR had their all time lowest January temp (2nd lowest for any month...only Feb 1, 1955 had a colder reading. It was their 2nd coldest January on record...only 1994 was colder.

 

Other standouts that month - Ft. kent, 4 of their coldest 26, records back to 1945.  Allagash village (only since 1986), 4 of the coldest 6.

 

In Jan 1994, Allagash, Ft.Kent, Clayton, perhaps CAR, set the coldest non-MWN monthly mean temps I've seen for anywhere in New England.  !st CT Lake may have been colder than CAR, but I don't think Mt. Mansfield was.

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Precip amounts are of little consequence as poor soil conditions around here will cause week rooted tree's to come crashing down on power lines from just a little bit of ice accumulation.

 

The difference between a quarter inch of ice and a half inch of ice is enormous when it comes to power outages.

 

Localized areas may be more adversely affected by the lesser amounts, but when it comes to widespread power outages, half an inch of ice is generally the magic number.

 

For CT, check out November 2002...that reached the half inch threshold in the hilltowns and the power outages were a big deal.

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Newest CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Tip you still on board for 22-23 time frame with the PNA?

 

Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with my thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE.

 

attachicon.giftues2.jpg

 

Yes,  ... I refer to CDC's calculation performed this AM ... Note the ESRL channel on the left hand side - my experience with this teleconnector is that the NCEP channel tends to lag behind the earlier detection on the left - I suspect it's a matter of time for NCEP to catch on...  As it were, it has that odd recession at the tail end; but I am less concerned with that as I am with that 4SD recovery - the PNA is so massive of a domain, that much mode change should definitely register more western Heights.   

 

compare.pn.png

CPC didn't update today. 

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