TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 bout the only thing remotely interesting on my mind is this potential. snow just about gone here now. torched to 48f. saw 51-52 driving home from boston. High 40's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 You guys should have caught a plane to St. John's Nfld...lol Big big time congrats to them. 26" of snow predicted with winds 55mph gusting to 75mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Hence the word "may."Ate at the Eire today. 6 bucks for wing dings and 8 dollar steak tips. Absolutely delicious yet so cheap.Epic snowpack remaining from me to you (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I was looking at record lows for Caribou ME and I didn't realize how ridiculous 2009 was there. They have 6 of their 31 record low daily temps for January in 2009. The potential cold shot lines up around the time of a lot of those record lows...and they are some of the toughest ones to beat in the month. I was skiing at Sugarloaf with my son during that cold outbreak. The peak of the cold saw tempertures of -25F in Stratton , Maine and -32F at Sugarloaf's summit. Quite cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro ensembles are definitely more amped with the Tuesday system. More of an icy look for interior...maybe some snow to start and finish north of the pike.The front comes thru overnite Sunday right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 bout the only thing remotely interesting on my mind is this potential. snow just about gone here now. torched to 48f. saw 51-52 driving home from boston. This, same here - making the best of it and playing golf this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The front comes thru overnite Sunday right? No, looks more like Monday morning on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 No, looks more like Monday morning on the ensembles. Ensemble mean SLP looks fairly amped at 12z Tuesday (relatively speaking... for this storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ensemble mean SLP looks fairly amped at 12z Tuesday (relatively speaking... for this storm). Yep, got buried at the bottom of last page: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38691-moving-past-first-week-of-january-general-discussionbanter/?p=1990534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 No, looks more like Monday morning on the ensembles.Was hoping we could have temps dropping already by Mon morn. Sounds like we'll have temps crashing most of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 yeah, definitely getting the kids out to the playground this Saturday. Run off some energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Was hoping we could have temps dropping already by Mon morn. Sounds like we'll have temps crashing most of the day Its probably going to be more of a slow ooze. Its not a sharp arctic front. Its a polar boundary with some adequate cold north of it as long as we get far enough into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 EC ens are pretty sweet for up here. A replenished snowpack and then the arctic hounds get unleashed. Next Saturday morning looks brutally cold with that airmass and high pressure centering over us. Still in lala land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think from a verification standpoint the EC Ens have destroyed everything else recently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 EC ens are pretty sweet for up here. A replenished snowpack and then the arctic hounds get unleashed. Next Saturday morning looks brutally cold with that airmass and high pressure centering over us. Still in lala land though.While some of us are without power to your south from the ice. Hopefully folks have gennys and stocked up on firewood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think the reason for the difference between the op GFS and op Euro is that the op GFS is super sharp and south with the PV/trough diving out of the Canadian Prairies toward the Great Lakes between 120-144 hours. That forces the SE ridge to amplify a bit with building heights ahead of it. The end result is that the initial boundary on Monday on the GFS gets hung up and we get less of a push of cold advection. The next wave is able to ride the boundary a bit farther west and winds up warmer and more amped. The Euro, on the other hand, is flatter and slower with the PV coming out of Canada. Many of the GEFS members are as well. This allows the boundary on Monday to settle a bit to the south and allows the piece of energy coming up from the south on Tuesday to pass underneath us and it remains cold enough for mainly frozen. If I had to guess I'd say the op GFS is being a bit bullish with the sub-480 tkns over Lake Superior at 144 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 While some of us are without power to your south from the ice. Hopefully folks have gennys and stocked up on firewood Lol, stocking up on firewood and buying a generator for 0.25-0.40" of QPF...even if that was all ice, power outages would be merely scattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sitting at the WaWa base lodge reading the crazy people on here is amusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Lol, stocking up on firewood and buying a generator for 0.25-0.40" of QPF...even if that was all ice, power outages would be merely scattered.Well the op had .40 in CT like Ryan said and you said ens were even more amped so just extrapolating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Lol, stocking up on firewood and buying a generator for 0.25-0.40" of QPF...even if that was all ice, power outages would be merely scattered. Precip amounts are of little consequence as poor soil conditions around here will cause week rooted tree's to come crashing down on power lines from just a little bit of ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah what a sick month that was in Maine. It was very cold across all of New England, but Maine definitely got the real brunt of it in terms of anomalies. They've had some obscene torches there in recent winters (2010 is the worst)...but that was a real doozy for cold mixed in there. CAR had their all time lowest January temp (2nd lowest for any month...only Feb 1, 1955 had a colder reading. It was their 2nd coldest January on record...only 1994 was colder. Other standouts that month - Ft. kent, 4 of their coldest 26, records back to 1945. Allagash village (only since 1986), 4 of the coldest 6. In Jan 1994, Allagash, Ft.Kent, Clayton, perhaps CAR, set the coldest non-MWN monthly mean temps I've seen for anywhere in New England. !st CT Lake may have been colder than CAR, but I don't think Mt. Mansfield was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Posting all numbed up in the dental chair ft fukn win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Posting all numbed up in the dental chair ft fukn win! Drugs FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Precip amounts are of little consequence as poor soil conditions around here will cause week rooted tree's to come crashing down on power lines from just a little bit of ice accumulation. The difference between a quarter inch of ice and a half inch of ice is enormous when it comes to power outages. Localized areas may be more adversely affected by the lesser amounts, but when it comes to widespread power outages, half an inch of ice is generally the magic number. For CT, check out November 2002...that reached the half inch threshold in the hilltowns and the power outages were a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 look who made the worst guess. lol http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33746-predict-summer-2012-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-millions-sq-km Poor Jonger LOL love doing those polls always shoot for the worst, someone has to. Here a pole for ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 18z gfs amp up and warm for next week. Looks like some nasty ice in gods country verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Newest CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Tip you still on board for 22-23 time frame with the PNA? Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with my thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. tues2.jpg Yes, ... I refer to CDC's calculation performed this AM ... Note the ESRL channel on the left hand side - my experience with this teleconnector is that the NCEP channel tends to lag behind the earlier detection on the left - I suspect it's a matter of time for NCEP to catch on... As it were, it has that odd recession at the tail end; but I am less concerned with that as I am with that 4SD recovery - the PNA is so massive of a domain, that much mode change should definitely register more western Heights. CPC didn't update today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 18z gfs amp up and warm for next week. Looks like some nasty ice in gods country verbatim GFS is warm for most of SNE... even warmer than previous run. That's mostly rain along and south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GFS is warm for most of SNE... even warmer than previous run. That's mostly rain along and south of the Pike. It's probably rain into southern NH. But obviously mesoscale temps are not resolvable on that model, or at that timeframe. But QPF is certainly healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GFS is warm for most of SNE... even warmer than previous run. That's mostly rain along and south of the Pike. we toss runs that look like that. Meteorology not modelology as our leader says lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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