Quincy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Im not worried about 1 day in the low 50's That's at the base. Probably stays in the 40's at your summit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 it's probably my fault; i was speaking about the earlier event for Tuesday and that this run is not very conducive to it - so I guess I disagree with you there. the latter event agrees with what i just said to Scott - our better wintery threat will occur when the PV relaxes; as is, there is too much gradient there. I dunno, most guidance shows something for early/mid next week...I'm not expecting a major snowstorm out of it. But I think an overrunning event froma wave along the front is not unreasonable. It could get crushed...certainly not ruling that out either...but it could also be juiced up a bit too and cause an icy scenario for the interior...the snow version is probably a happy medium between those two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 both were for snow - not sure which is worse, but that's a different debate. eh, it's one run. i do, however, think that the better shot for a meaningful winter event will come when that giant red spot of earth sized PV and its -7SD core anomaly or whatever insanity it is on this Euro run, relaxes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Blizz24 is a classic...goes back to the WWBB days 10+ years ago. His posting style hasn't changed one bit. Always a hit and run post too. Apparently hit and run sentence formation too. Have you gone back to try to read what he wrote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Your interp of the Euro today was like your monitor was upside down and you were drunk with your mom yelling at you to come up from the basement to eat your grilled cheese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 definitely a miller b threat there at day 10. I'd like to see the ensembles shift towards a bigger -AO/-NAO combo like that run has...big anomalies over the arctic and the Davis Strait. Yeah that is a somewhat classic looking Miller B KU setup for a lot of our events that occurred in Jan/Feb...northern stream dominant with big +PNA and a nice little block there in Davis Straight. I'm hoping we can get something out of that pattern...I think we'll have the +PNA but the NAO block as you said has not been consistent on modeling. Fantasy-land anyway, but a nice synoptic map to look at there at D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I dunno, most guidance shows something for early/mid next week...I'm not expecting a major snowstorm out of it. But I think an overrunning event froma wave along the front is not unreasonable. It could get crushed...certainly not ruling that out either...but it could also be juiced up a bit too and cause an icy scenario for the interior...the snow version is probably a happy medium between those two. they did on the 00z run - but the 12z GGEM has almost nothing there. like i said, it's one cycle. Folks, when I said the its a sh*t pattern, you have to read what I wrote around and stop f reacting - jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 the GFES is all over the place early next week. it could be a torch cut to the west or a miss to the S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 both were for snow - not sure which is worse, but that's a different debate. eh, it's one run. i do, however, think that the better shot for a meaningful winter event will come when that giant red spot of earth sized PV and its -7SD core anomaly or whatever insanity it is on this Euro run, relaxes... Well I'm not saying it screams epic stretch or anything, but I think if offers the chance for something early next week, and then perhaps near day 8 or day 10. I'm glad the PV may not park itself over us because it allows for the potential for s/w's to at least try and amp up a bit near the East coast. It may very well end up not being snowy per se...but I think it offers some potential. I guess I'm just looking at it from a perspective of just hoping we get a little snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Your interp of the Euro today was like your monitor was upside down and you were drunk with your mom yelling at you to come up from the basement to eat your grilled cheese "trust me , i'm a meteorologist" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Your interp of the Euro today was like your monitor was upside down and you were drunk with your mom yelling at you to come up from the basement to eat your grilled cheese dude, you make it painfully obvious you don't understand basic meteorological concepts. you can't have 470dm heights over James Bay, with 588 heights over Miami, and generate a KU storm on the EC - that's the point. what's really at stake here is that you and your ilk of users on the board are losing patients and are so nerved up that you react before thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sure just ignore the winter storm on Monday night lolThat .25" major icing event you are talking about? Sounds meh in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Snowman that should be a three bun salute. lol and for brian90210 as well.meh, hard to get excited for a .25 QPF event and cold that remains in the longer term forecast and never moves above 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol's this is probably the best board i have ever belong to w/ all the personalities , hopefully we can get a good crowd together for saturday at funky's. You can see Blizz with a brew in his hand talking to will about the mon nite "winter storm" and when the fropa goes thru on "sunday" and then you can see garth and ginxy shooting the shiat and scooter w/ five caution flags flyin from his fanny, sayin how " we will have our chances in the next two weeks" . I can't wait to saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Well I'm not saying it screams epic stretch or anything, but I think if offers the chance for something early next week, and then perhaps near day 8 or day 10. I'm glad the PV may not park itself over us because it allows for the potential for s/w's to at least try and amp up a bit near the East coast. It may very well end up not being snowy per se...but I think it offers some potential. I guess I'm just looking at it from a perspective of just hoping we get a little snow out of this. well - too my point if anyone is capable of being objective ... the better chance comes with the flow relaxes. The extended Euro puts and exclamation point on the idea. i'm on the fence with Tuesday. it's a situation where you have a sfc polar boundary pushed/wedged quite a bit under the core westerlies in the mid levels... you could easily envision there being some steady weak to moderate omega where that construct forces some elevated frontal upglide - "ana". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I am getting dizzy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 interesting idea from the crazy uncle - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I hope there's a KU just so I can watch kevin rip into tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 dude, you make it painfully obvious you don't understand basic meteorological concepts. you can't have 470dm heights over James Bay, with 588 heights over Miami, and generate a KU storm on the EC - that's the point. what's really at stake here is that you and your ilk of users on the board are losing patients and are so nerved up that you react before thinking. You get more excited over awful 18z Nam runs that delay warm frontal passages than you do about epic 10 day Euro runs. An odd bird for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I just looked at the Euro now and what I saw was a great chance at a snow event for a chunk of the region on Tuesday, and then bitter cold at the end of the run with another threat at D10. What in the hell is the page and a half of b**ching all about? Yeah seriously. that southern shortwave days 5-7 unfortunately would have no chance because of the buzzsaw to the north, but before then looked good for you guys with the tue am event...the cold was a ltitle more relaxed this run, but thats to be expected run to run...and the day 10 image is complete weather porn, with a storm threat and the entire pv lobe diving south into the upper midwest...if only we had an 11-15 day euro op to entertain us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Apparently hit and run sentence formation too. Have you gone back to try to read what he wrote? Let's not be too critical... Blizz24 does the best he can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 well - too my point if anyone is capable of being objective ... the better chance comes with the flow relaxes. The extended Euro puts and exclamation point on the idea. i'm on the fence with Tuesday. it's a situation where you have a sfc polar boundary pushed/wedged quite a bit under the core westerlies in the mid levels... you could easily envision there being some steady weak to moderate omega where that construct forces some elevated frontal upglide - "ana". Yeah and I agree as well. Lift the PV out and any possible ridging out west will allow s/w's to amplify across the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah seriously. that southern shortwave days 5-7 unfortunately would have no chance because of the buzzsaw to the north, but before then looked good for you guys with the tue am event...the cold was a ltitle more relaxed this run, but thats to be expected run to run...and the day 10 image is complete weather porn, with a storm threat and the entire pv lobe diving south into the upper midwest...if only we had an 11-15 day euro op to entertain us. Scott does - at least when I worked at WSI it went out to 380 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Scott does - at least when I worked at WSI it went out to 380 I think. Euro op only goes to hr 240. The ensembles go to 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 What in the Sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Sometimes I think we'd be better off with models that only went out to 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah and I agree as well. Lift the PV out and any possible ridging out west will allow s/w's to amplify across the Plains. right. in fact, the D10 Euro ...it certain looks real good via rip-and-read, but also appears to be too much of a good thing in that SPV being so magnanimously anomalous and threatening to come down. that is a classic subsume scenario though. The Ceveland Super Bomb of Jan 25+ 1978, and the Feb 5 events two weeks later were both subsumers it's when an SPV fragment dangles precipitously N of the Can/U.S. border, a Pac S/W ejects underneath, and down she comes! if the frequencies align, memorable phasing results, to put it lightly. not so sure though when the SPV that tries to come down is roughly half the polar mass of the cosmos though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro op only goes to hr 240. The ensembles go to 360. Ah, that's right - I remember now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Scott does - at least when I worked at WSI it went out to 380 I think. Euro op only goes to hr 240. The ensembles go to 360. Ok I was really confused for a few mins there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 who cares about vodka cold, that pv was in a much better spot, give me snow or give me............well, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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