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Moving past first week of January General Discussion/banter


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah, the orientation of the coastline means that a greater % of winds (esp. E or ESE winds) are off the land.  It's not an amazing place for snow but if they hang on to SN for an extra hour or two in a big storm  vs. BDR, that'll boost climo.  Plus, HVN oftentimes cashes in on late blooming Miller Bs when areas to the west get screwed.  See 12/29/12 and March 01... HVN did very well in both.

 

As for 93-94... that was a pretty epic winter in the Danbury area... seemingly endless string of storms but most changed over... I was in 8th grade (taking Earth Science) and we must have had a half dozen 3-5" events that went from sn to ip to zr... snowpack was constant with little warmup... we also snuck into the heavy snows in early Feb... got a good 2' from those... remember thinking I'd never see a snowpack like that every again... a mere two years later, I had almost 2x the amount on the ground.  Good times, great oldies, terrific winter.

 

The 12/26-27 changeover event and the 12/29 late bloomer event this winter were really good consecutive examples of each case here.

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meh...i don't see the suppression...the pv lift rights out and then it just gets zonal...and it's not really overly cold in the long range anyway...maybe an overrunning pattern? the pac jet gets happy again.

Might be worth a trip to a lake effect region. End of next week looks great

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Eh...they are pretty awful in the pacific by the end of the 11-15 day...but i do like the idea of a warmer period rebounding after this upcoming cold shot...then hopefully we can drop the real hammer, but we'll see

 

PV is still displaced into NOAM and the AO is still negative D11-D15. As you said the Pacific is not great with an EPO flip but that doesn't scream torch to me... yet. 

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Eh...they are pretty awful in the pacific by the end of the 11-15 day...but i do like the idea of a warmer period rebounding after this upcoming cold shot...then hopefully we can drop the real hammer, but we'll see

 

there's enough aleutian ridging to keep interesting but yeah not exactly what you want to see.

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there's enough aleutian ridging to keep interesting but yeah not exactly what you want to see.

 

 

PV is still displaced into NOAM and the AO is still negative D11-D15. As you said the Pacific is not great with an EPO flip but that doesn't scream torch to me... yet. 

 

Yeah i mean its not awful elsewhere in that it would suggest a prolonged torch incoming, (verbatim it would likely present opportunities for you guys in new england, but probably more garbage for me further south).

 

It is definitely the warmest 11-15 day out of this model that ive seen in a long time though...its warmer than the european ens now after being biased much colder for days and days. 

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Yeah i mean its not awful elsewhere in that it would suggest a prolonged torch incoming, (verbatim it would likely present opportunities for you guys in new england, but probably more garbage for me further south).

It is definitely the warmest 11-15 day out of this model that ive seen in a long time though...its warmer than the european ens now after being biased much colder for days and days.

It's going to be tough south of about NYC aside of during the transitions when the cold has some dig.

I think we are seeing after the initial plunge we are left with the same west to east pattern we had a few weeks ago but with at least more cold air nearby

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looks mild at least in mid levels for mon and potentially snowy for tues (am) at least.  not sure if ML boundary is gonna make a push N on tue eve/wed am? but it looks like it would be ice if it decided to

 

All I needed to hear.  Disinterested.  I hope this pattern delivers something.  If not, this would be leaps and bounds worse than last winter when we knew we had no chance.

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