CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Do we ever even get ice storms on this area of the CP? Not really. Best example was in the end of Feb '95 where there was a good 0.25-0.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah, the orientation of the coastline means that a greater % of winds (esp. E or ESE winds) are off the land. It's not an amazing place for snow but if they hang on to SN for an extra hour or two in a big storm vs. BDR, that'll boost climo. Plus, HVN oftentimes cashes in on late blooming Miller Bs when areas to the west get screwed. See 12/29/12 and March 01... HVN did very well in both. As for 93-94... that was a pretty epic winter in the Danbury area... seemingly endless string of storms but most changed over... I was in 8th grade (taking Earth Science) and we must have had a half dozen 3-5" events that went from sn to ip to zr... snowpack was constant with little warmup... we also snuck into the heavy snows in early Feb... got a good 2' from those... remember thinking I'd never see a snowpack like that every again... a mere two years later, I had almost 2x the amount on the ground. Good times, great oldies, terrific winter. The 12/26-27 changeover event and the 12/29 late bloomer event this winter were really good consecutive examples of each case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wouldnt mind it at all ESP since my cars wouldn't be damaged. But that's just my opinion on things. I'm not sure how fun extended power outages would be during an Arctic cold spell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Not really. Best example was in the end of Feb '95 where there was a good 0.25-0.5". Yeah I thought not, when we get frozen it's generally snow. Oh well no glazed trees crushing my car and home lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 meh...i don't see the suppression...the pv lift rights out and then it just gets zonal...and it's not really overly cold in the long range anyway...maybe an overrunning pattern? the pac jet gets happy again. Might be worth a trip to a lake effect region. End of next week looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The Euro likes the meat locker to brief relief (snowstorm at that point?) then reload. up in the UML WX Lab back in the day we used to have a large synoptic scale conceptual saying: "First it gets warm; then it gets cold - BOOM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gefs is not terrible but not great in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 gefs is not terrible but not great in the extended. Eh...they are pretty awful in the pacific by the end of the 11-15 day...but i do like the idea of a warmer period rebounding after this upcoming cold shot...then hopefully we can drop the real hammer, but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Eh...they are pretty awful in the pacific by the end of the 11-15 day...but i do like the idea of a warmer period rebounding after this upcoming cold shot...then hopefully we can drop the real hammer, but we'll see PV is still displaced into NOAM and the AO is still negative D11-D15. As you said the Pacific is not great with an EPO flip but that doesn't scream torch to me... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Eh...they are pretty awful in the pacific by the end of the 11-15 day...but i do like the idea of a warmer period rebounding after this upcoming cold shot...then hopefully we can drop the real hammer, but we'll see there's enough aleutian ridging to keep interesting but yeah not exactly what you want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I can think of much worse patterns lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 PV is still displaced into NOAM and the AO is still negative D11-D15. As you said the Pacific is not great with an EPO flip but that doesn't scream torch to me... yet.Remember you like AOB for Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ggem way south for next week. Congrats me. Limited moisture north of LL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 One of these days we'll have a nice Pacific. Stupid -PDO...although I know they have produced before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Remember you like AOB for Feb I do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 there's enough aleutian ridging to keep interesting but yeah not exactly what you want to see. PV is still displaced into NOAM and the AO is still negative D11-D15. As you said the Pacific is not great with an EPO flip but that doesn't scream torch to me... yet. Yeah i mean its not awful elsewhere in that it would suggest a prolonged torch incoming, (verbatim it would likely present opportunities for you guys in new england, but probably more garbage for me further south). It is definitely the warmest 11-15 day out of this model that ive seen in a long time though...its warmer than the european ens now after being biased much colder for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I do?Thats what you sent me the other day and Gibbs has N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 look who made the worst guess. lol http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/33746-predict-summer-2012-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-millions-sq-km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GFS ensemble members stil do an abrupt stop at the phase 6/7 interface and do a loop-de-loop in phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah i mean its not awful elsewhere in that it would suggest a prolonged torch incoming, (verbatim it would likely present opportunities for you guys in new england, but probably more garbage for me further south). It is definitely the warmest 11-15 day out of this model that ive seen in a long time though...its warmer than the european ens now after being biased much colder for days and days. It's going to be tough south of about NYC aside of during the transitions when the cold has some dig.I think we are seeing after the initial plunge we are left with the same west to east pattern we had a few weeks ago but with at least more cold air nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Any word on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Any word on the EURO? Decommissioned due to lack of snow-friendly solutions - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Any word on the EURO? looks mild at least in mid levels for mon and potentially snowy for tues (am) at least. not sure if ML boundary is gonna make a push N on tue eve/wed am? but it looks like it would be ice if it decided to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 looks mild at least in mid levels for mon and potentially snowy for tues (am) at least. not sure if ML boundary is gonna make a push N on tue eve/wed am? but it looks like it would be ice if it decided to All I needed to hear. Disinterested. I hope this pattern delivers something. If not, this would be leaps and bounds worse than last winter when we knew we had no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'd bet dollars to weenies that Pickles interp of Euro is not what it actually shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Shredded wheat for breakfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Mid week event is snow away from coast. Still around .25. Obv that could still change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'd bet dollars to weenies that Pickles interp of Euro is not what it actually shows It's all snow for orh. Messy mix-snow for ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Euro is a messy mix for Tuesday AM. Probably snow/sleet and some ZR down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Mid week event is snow away from coast. Still around .25. Obv that could still change A bit more robust with QPF than 00z was. Almost tickling 0.4" here in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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