Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Icy look...sfc front would probably have no chance of coming back north through the CAD unless we got some sort of pretty powerful sfc reflection cutting through NY State or something...but the mid-level front tries to lift back north. Could be a snow to ice deal for many on that.We'd love a nice icestorm. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Remember model verification Right, but just something to watch. Looks like ice Union CT on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Icky GFS run. That's a cold rain for most of us. So much for the front blasting through early next week....we're still AOA 0c at 8h next Thursday/Friday per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So much for the front blasting through early next week....we're still AOA 0c at 8h next Thursday/Friday per the GFS. Always was a possibility. It looked like a few days ago we'd be able to tickle the front south of us and get a few days near or just below before the big cold blast but that may not happen. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I don't know.... no cold high to the north... seems like a little snow flipping to rain for many places. Probably better in the hills but I'd like to see a semi-decent source region. Well its got the same 1030-ish high going from N Maine retreating NE that the Euro had. Euro keeps even Kevin and Hartford below freezing despite 850 temps warming. I've made it well known what I think of the GFS when it comes to CAD so no need to rehash it. Verbatim though you are right that it would be a cold rain for most of us after some frozen to start, but I probably wouldn't believe that verbatim solution at the surface if it were 24 hours out on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Lakes open for business this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I don't know.... no cold high to the north... seems like a little snow flipping to rain for many places. Probably better in the hills but I'd like to see a semi-decent source region. sounds disgusting for areas in ema, esp w no high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Op GFS continues to be pretty damn poor with the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Damaging ice please. Many many trees and wires down before the arctic hounds come calling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Well its got the same 1030-ish high going from N Maine retreating NE that the Euro had. Euro keeps even Kevin and Hartford below freezing despite 850 temps warming. I've made it well known what I think of the GFS when it comes to CAD so no need to rehash it. Verbatim though you are right that it would be a cold rain for most of us after some frozen to start, but I probably wouldn't believe that verbatim solution at the surface if it were 24 hours out on the GFS. TBH I didn't even look at the 2M temps on the GFS because they're worthless. While it probably has an icy appeal up north at least here in CT that kind of orientation of a 1028mbish high sliding east through the Maritimes probably won't do it. For us I really thought we'd need the whole thing to develop a bit south and give us snow. Probably snow or bust down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Blah at the op GFS. Looks like it's going to be a pretty dry run. Reload comes in by D10 and the suppress everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 TBH I didn't even look at the 2M temps on the GFS because they're worthless. While it probably has an icy appeal up north at least here in CT that kind of orientation of a 1028mbish high sliding east through the Maritimes probably won't do it. For us I really thought we'd need the whole thing to develop a bit south and give us snow. Probably snow or bust down here. Ive thought the whole time ice is going to be our concern. Deep low level cold and mid Jan is going to mean some big problems. Even in the valley I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ive thought the whole time ice is going to be our concern. Deep low level cold and mid Jan is going to mean some big problems. Even in the valley I think The only thing missing.... deep low level cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Blah at the op GFS. Looks like it's going to be a pretty dry run. Reload comes in by D10 and the suppress everything. PV is in a pretty good position to have some pretty epic LES worthy of a chase if comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 TBH I didn't even look at the 2M temps on the GFS because they're worthless. While it probably has an icy appeal up north at least here in CT that kind of orientation of a 1028mbish high sliding east through the Maritimes probably won't do it. For us I really thought we'd need the whole thing to develop a bit south and give us snow. Probably snow or bust down here. Yeah ice is definitely a bit tougher there...normally need a bit more robust high...not counting the Norfolk area and some of the high places near Union which do it more frequently on weaker high setups. Euro was pretty cold though even down there...not that this really has a ton of bearing yet since we are like 132-144 hours away, lol. This could still end up cutting over Logan11 for all we know. I'd expect to see a lot of model fluctuation over the next couple of days. Handling the southwest energy is far from NWP's list of strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Damaging ice please. Many many trees and wires down before the arctic hounds come calling You want no electricity, damaged cars and houses from falling trees and generally miserable living conditions? I've lived through this, it's not fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Blah at the op GFS. Looks like it's going to be a pretty dry run. Reload comes in by D10 and the suppress everything. Yes sir. Cold and dry after mid week. Obviously we hope it does not work out like that, but it's a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 You want no electricity, damaged cars and houses from falling trees and generally miserable living conditions? I've lived through this, it's not fun at all. Wouldnt mind it at all ESP since my cars wouldn't be damaged. But that's just my opinion on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 No sane person wants a damaging ice storm, not that its going to happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yes sir. Cold and dry after mid week. Obviously we hope it does not work out like that, but it's a concern Definitely a concern. I think we have a window MLK weekend when the pattern reloads? Otherwise it may turn into a brutal slog of below normal days with bare ground and blue skies. That's like weather water boarding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yes sir. Cold and dry after mid week. Obviously we hope it does not work out like that, but it's a concern meh...i don't see the suppression...the pv lift rights out and then it just gets zonal...and it's not really overly cold in the long range anyway...maybe an overrunning pattern? the pac jet gets happy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Definitely a concern. I think we have a window MLK weekend when the pattern reloads? Otherwise it may turn into a brutal slog of below normal days with bare ground and blue skies. That's like weather water boarding.No backing off your wintry appeal storm next week. Stay the course ESP based on euro and climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 meh...i don't see the suppression...the pv lift rights out and then it just gets zonal...and it's not really overly cold in the long range anyway...maybe an overrunning pattern? the pac jet gets happy again. It may not be suppression but the location of the PV could keep the flow flat enough to not let anything amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 No backing off your wintry appeal storm next week. Stay the course ESP based on euro and climo I'll stay the course for now. The Euro was pretty meh overall... only like 0.25" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think this is why you definitely need the -NAO help...the PAC gets kinda crappy again (not horrible, though) so the -NAO is necessary to save the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 I'll stay the course for now. The Euro was pretty meh overall... only like 0.25" of liquid. Damaging ice storm coming with that amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 H5 heights are nearly 570dm on Tues as another round of precip moves in on the GFS! And lowering only slightly over the following day. There is a surface front in the vicinity but the real cold is hundreds of miles north. Surface high in Quebec-Maine means some frozen is possible, esp for inland areas. But we really need the front to penetrate much further south to be in good position for that wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Do we ever even get ice storms on this area of the CP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 GFS is a classic heavy les event for east of Lake Ontario...southern Tug Hill/Oswego. I'd like to see it drop in a bit differently for WSW/SW flow with cold air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Definitely a concern. I think we have a window MLK weekend when the pattern reloads? Otherwise it may turn into a brutal slog of below normal days with bare ground and blue skies. That's like weather water boarding. Pretty much what we have now-except it is colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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