Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 It wasn't posted to verify a warm-up, just posted to show that at one point (a long, fuzzy time ago in NWP) tomorrow was shown as an all-out blowtorch. Oh I know, but the overall pattern wasn't bad. It isn't cold, it's seasonable to above across the entire region. They chased off Joe, but I'm betting departures were substantial in many areas due to overnight lows. Hard linking a 384 hour off hour OP run for kicks and giggles. Let's see how many/to what extent these features exist in 15 days (around the 23rd - 26th): 1. SE high 2. High off the west coast 3. Low near/off the BC coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 This weekend could torch, especially if we get enough sunshine. Some analog dates...1/6/2007 - Mostly sunny at BDL, high temperature 72F. 12/7/1998 - Sunny at BDL, high temperature 76F. More realistic analogs with partial sunshine (highs at BDL)...12/17/1996 - 56F1/4/1993 - 61F 11/30/2006 - 64F Obviously the setup is not exactly the same and we are seeing some moisture trying to sneak in, mainly in the form of clouds, for both Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'd take the crush pv or storms anything better than this. Record cold would be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Quincy I thought about that date....Jan2007. My question is how well will we mix. It looked like high pressure may be close enough to limit mixing? I just glanced at it so maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 that's good to hear. guessing surface would be rather chilly on Tue with 1030 HP up north, despite mild look to the mid-levels. I meant the extended lol. They had a nice -NAO. Oh I know what you meant...I should have separated those two thoughts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Pretty much every extreme has been overdone in the models at longer ranges. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Quincy I thought about that date....Jan2007. My question is how well will we mix. It looked like high pressure may be close enough to limit mixing? I just glanced at it so maybe I'm wrong. That is a good point, I didn't take into consideration the placement of high pressure. It's very difficult in the heart of winter to get temperatures in the 70F+ range up here. Literally everything has to go right. With that said, MOS is playing big-time catch-up. Given the raw data, the 850mb method yields highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's under partial sunshine for interior southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 look'd like gfs 2m temps wrt 18z run had upper 30's in GC around 7pm sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That is a good point, I didn't take into consideration the placement of high pressure. It's very difficult in the heart of winter to get temperatures in the 70F+ range up here. Literally everything has to go right. With that said, MOS is playing big-time catch-up. Given the raw data, the 850mb method yields highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's under partial sunshine for interior southern New England. There were actually SVRs out as the cold front went through New England that time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Torch avoided locally...high of 31F so far today off a low of 2 at Morrisville-Stowe Airport. Snow depth still at 12" in the backyard, now that the fluff settled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Pretty much every extreme has been overdone in the models at longer ranges. Food for thought. Agreed, as shown with my 192 hr ECMWF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 That is a good point, I didn't take into consideration the placement of high pressure. It's very difficult in the heart of winter to get temperatures in the 70F+ range up here. Literally everything has to go right. With that said, MOS is playing big-time catch-up. Given the raw data, the 850mb method yields highs in the upper 50's to lower 60's under partial sunshine for interior southern New England. How do you figure, what are you using as a lapse rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Agreed, as shown with my 192 hr ECMWF output. Nerf gun to head I bet we are hard pressed to get -20c anywhere in NE at 8h in the next 10 days. Lets see what later runs show. I think we are going to mild up in between snow threats either side of the 20-23rd period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 "Even Ray squeezes a weenie once in a while."winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Nerf gun to head I bet we are hard pressed to get -20c anywhere in NE at 8h in the next 10 days. Lets see what later runs show. I think we are going to mild up in between snow threats either side of the 20-23rd period I think NNE has a good shot to get -20C 850 temps in the next 10 days....that really isn't all that rare for them. Definitely tougher down here, but even last winter we managed to do it at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Nerf gun to head I bet we are hard pressed to get -20c anywhere in NE at 8h in the next 10 days. Lets see what later runs show. I think we are going to mild up in between snow threats either side of the 20-23rd period violently disagree from BTV to BML to BANGOR maine you can laaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa lock it up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 39.8F here for the high here... a few sprinkles earlier in Leominster, KFIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS... blah. I want a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Just saw the 18z GFS... blah. I want a storm! the good news is that it's the 18z GFS-probably won't verify--did it have anything for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 How do you figure, what are you using as a lapse rate? It was my senior research, you of all people should know this. The method works best under conditions with partial cloud-cover, no precipitation and no strong high pressure overhead. DT has a similar 850mb rule at WXrisk.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Nerf gun to head I bet we are hard pressed to get -20c anywhere in NE at 8h in the next 10 days. Lets see what later runs show. I think we are going to mild up in between snow threats either side of the 20-23rd period I think NNE has a good shot to get -20C 850 temps in the next 10 days....that really isn't all that rare for them. Definitely tougher down here, but even last winter we managed to do it at least once. Yeah I agree. I really wouldn't be surprised to get a glancing shot of that into SNE too. Won't take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It was my senior research, you of all people should know this. The method works best under conditions with partial cloud-cover, no precipitation and no strong high pressure overhead. DT has a similar 850mb rule at WXrisk.com. Yeah I know about your senior research but I just feel like what time of year you use the method in makes a big difference. We're in mid-January with a low sun-angle and shallow mixing layers. BUFKIT shows a strong low-level inversion @ BDL all weekend with low-level moisture trapped beneath this inversion. It'll be interesting to see how it trends in the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It was my senior research, you of all people should know this. The method works best under conditions with partial cloud-cover, no precipitation and no strong high pressure overhead. DT has a similar 850mb rule at WXrisk.com. Yeah I know about your senior research but I just feel like what time of year you use the method in makes a big difference. We're in mid-January with a low sun-angle and shallow mixing layers. BUFKIT shows a strong low-level inversion @ BDL all weekend with low-level moisture trapped beneath this inversion. It'll be interesting to see how it trends in the next 48 hours. I haven't looked at soundings for that area but it might a case where some interior locales hold in the 40s for quite a while but eventually mix out into the 50s for a short time ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Yeah I know about your senior research but I just feel like what time of year you use the method in makes a big difference. We're in mid-January with a low sun-angle and shallow mixing layers. BUFKIT shows a strong low-level inversion @ BDL all weekend with low-level moisture trapped beneath this inversion. It'll be interesting to see how it trends in the next 48 hours. The method has a different set of equations for every month... Under those conditions, it's within 4F more than 90% of the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ryan looks good in green. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Ryan looks good in green. Well deserved and earned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Left Cambridge at 7pm at 43F, didn't get below low 40's until past Gardner. Quite a gradient of snow pack and temps. W of Gardner snow pack was still significant. Once into the Pioneer Valley the temp quickly went below freezing. Greenfield was in the upper 20's and looks looked minimal melting with bushes still laden with snow. Valley cold ftw I guess. Up to 29F imby now but looks like the elevations are torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow... Suddenly got very windy. House shaking, freight-train windy. Was not expecting this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wow... Suddenly got very windy. House shaking, freight-train windy. Was not expecting this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Still about 8" snow depth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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